[Positional] Crude Buy BetSL at day's low. High chance of triggering.
Note -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
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I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
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I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
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Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives
CRUDEOIL1! trade ideas
Crude Eyes Bullish Reversal - Descending Trendline🚨 Crude Oil (MCX) 4 HOUR Chart Analysis 🚨
🔹 Bullish Indicators Identified: Breakout from a descending trendline, signaling potential trend reversal.
Price reclaiming the 55 EMA (6211) as a key resistance level.
🔹 Expanding Demand Zone: The breakout structure suggests a shift in market sentiment, increasing the probability of bullish continuation.
🔹 Target Levels: Watching for price movement towards the 6310 zone (Bearish OB).
T1 - 6250
T2 - 6300
T3 - 6350
🔹 Breakout Confirmation: A strong move above 6180 - 6200 will validate the bullish breakout.
🔹 Risk Management: Ensure proper stop-loss placement to manage risk effectively.
📈 Stay alert for confirmation & volume surge! 🚀
🔹 Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on available data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk; past performance is not indicative of future results.
❤️ If this helps, please like the post!
Does our LIS hold? Weekly CL Trade IdeaNYMEX:CL1!
Macro Update:
There are a lot of market moving events taking shape on the macro landscape.
Peace negotiations between warring countries, reciprocal trade tariffs, and a US-Iran nuclear deal.
We need not mention that any of these events may potentially turn market sentiment risk on or risk off. It all depends on how these all unfold.
On the economic front, we have rate decisions from various central banks. Most central banks reiterate cautious cuts and turn hawkish amidst concerns about the rising inflation outlook. Central banks are also pointing towards rising uncertainty on the outlook itself as we mentioned above. It all depends on how events unfold.
WTI Crude Oil Big Picture:
Viewing a weekly full session WTI crude oil chart, we can see 3 weeks of one time framing up on the weekly chart starting Dec 30th, 2024. We then saw a rejection of uptrend and prices reverting to 2024 Value area. We can see four bearish weekly candlesticks from the week starting Jan 20th, 2025. Last week, the price action on the weekly timeframe formed an inverted hammer showing bearish pressure increasing on WTI crude oil. Our key LIS and key bull support show the confluence of multiple market generated levels has held up for the past 3 weeks.
Traders take note that WTI crude oil futures contract has rolled over to April 2025 contract. Symbol: CLJ2025
In addition, DOE WTI inventory numbers will be released on Thursday 11am CT due to US President’s Day on Monday February 17th, 2025.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
2025 mcVPOC: 72.82
Feb 2025 mcVAH: 7 2.48
2025 mcVAL: 70.56
Yearly Open/ LIS: 70.52
Key Bull Support/ Confluence Zone: 70.52 - 70.12
Scenario 1: Range bound week ahead
In this scenario we expect range bound price action contained within Feb 2025 micro composite Value Area.
Scenario 2: Risk-off sentiment shift prices below key LIS
In this scenario, we may see a breakdown of our key bull support and Line in Sand. Price moves and stays below yearly open price, providing a possible shift lower towards composite volume point of control (CVPOC).
Micro CME contracts allow for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
Bias is Long on OilHitting an Daily Level, may be bouncing back from a big ~300-Tick move to the downside. Engulfing candle on the 15 min. Currently in a Low Value Area 70.64. Point of Control is 72.45. Hoping for a nice pullback since it's still in overall downtrend. Trying to catch some moves before market opens...Lets' see. Up, up, and away.
Crude Oil Bearish Setup Crude oil is showing signs of potential downside movement. After a recent rally, price is facing strong resistance near $71.60-$72.65, where sellers are stepping in.
🔻 Key Observations:
1️⃣ Price previously broke out of a descending channel but failed to gain strong bullish momentum.
2️⃣ A lower high is forming, indicating that buyers are losing control.
3️⃣ There’s a strong support zone around $70.14-$70.89, which could be the next target.
4️⃣ A potential short opportunity is forming, with an entry near the current price and a stop above resistance.
Take Profit 1 - 70.89
Take Profit 2 - 70.14
Stop Loss - 72.65
Possible riseOil is now in a correction phase after having been descending, as noted on the left side of the chart. The price may move between 73.72 and 70.12 and a break of either side may lead to bull run or a bearish continuation.
For the immediate bullish rise, if price continues to be above 70.12, and passes 71.6 simultaneously settling above, the commodity may try to touch 73.000 zone
My View : CLJ2025 - Crude Oil Futures (April 2025)Summary analysis :
Price Movement: The current price is at 71.43, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 (-0.02%) from the previous close. The price has been relatively stable within a narrow range, with the high at 71.46 and the low at 71.38.
Trend Indicator s: The Heikin Ashi candles suggest a potential consolidation phase, as there is no strong directional movement indicated by the candles. The Bollinger Bands (BB20) show the price is near the middle band (SMA close at 71.10), indicating a balanced market without significant volatility.
Support and Resistance : Key support levels are around 71.00 and 70.50, while resistance levels are near 72.50 and 73.00. The price is currently hovering near the lower end of the recent range.
Volume and Momentum : The volume data is not explicitly provided, but the lack of significant price movement suggests low momentum. The ARIMA forecast (BQECASTHL) indicates a potential for minor fluctuations without a clear trend.
Fractals and Signals : The presence of fractals suggests potential reversal points, but without a clear pattern, it’s challenging to predict a strong move. The SELL and BUY signals are not strongly pronounced, indicating a neutral market sentiment.
Time Frame : The analysis is based on a 1-hour chart, which is suitable for short-term trading. Traders should monitor for breakout signals above 71.46 or below 71.38 for potential short-term opportunities.
In summary, the Crude Oil Futures market for April 2025 is currently in a consolidation phase with limited volatility. Traders should watch for breakout signals and monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities.
Bearish Outlook: Short Crude Oil Next Week as Resistance Holds- Key Insights: Crude oil is currently entrenched in a bearish trend, with
recent trading activity indicating waning speculative interest and a
reluctance to decisively break past resistance levels. The market is
consolidating around the low 70s, reflecting broader concerns about
geopolitical tensions and their impact on supply. This scenario presents a
viable short opportunity as prices may struggle to maintain upward momentum.
- Price Targets:
Next week targets are T1 = 68.50, T2 = 66.00.
Stop levels are
S1 = 72.50, S2 = 73.50.
This positioning reflects the current market sentiment and expected resistance.
- Recent Performance: The crude oil market has experienced a series of lower
highs and lows, and trading has remained stagnant. Prices have been hovering
in a narrow range, with a slight bearish inclination driven by external
factors and limited investor confidence.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts project continued bearish movements for crude oil in
the short-term, advising caution among traders. Geopolitical events,
particularly concerning Iran, remain critical in shaping market dynamics,
alongside potential impacts from OPEC's decisions.
- News Impact: Geopolitical concerns, particularly around sanctions against Iran
and conflicts influencing global oil supply chains, are pivotal in
understanding current price movements. Developments in Ukraine and OPEC’s
production strategies are additional elements that could sway market
direction.
Crude Oil Short Setup: Targeting the Low $70s to High $69sCrude oil appears to be showing signs of bearish momentum after a failed attempt to break higher. With the price stalling around the $71.00 level, we’re positioning for a short trade targeting a retracement into the low $70s or possibly into the high $69s, where we see potential support levels.
MCL1! – Bearish Target in Play MCL1! – Bearish Target in Play
🔻 Short Bias | 🎯 Target: 70.36824 | ⏳ Deadline: Feb 25
After a temporary bounce, crude oil is facing resistance, and momentum suggests a move lower toward 70.36824 is possible. Monitoring price action for further confirmation.
💡 All trades can be replayed on TradingView for confirmation.
#CrudeOil #MCL #TradingView #MarketAnalysis
#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: No bigger opinion on this trading range. 70 holds, we chop until a bigger news event pushes us above 74. Below 70 we could flush to 69 and then 67.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Bulls preventing meaningful lower lows but we have a clear bear trend line. Bulls are still favored going into next week to buy around 70 and test back up to at least 72. They want to break above the Tuesday high 73.67 and make the market more neutral again. If they get it, we could test 75 next.
Invalidation is below 69.7.
bear case: Bears have closed the week near the lows and they want to poke at 70 until it fails. I have no idea how likely that is next week but for now it’s support and if we see decent buying pressure tomorrow, bulls are favored. Volume is also trash again. Below 70 we test 69 and then 67.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Neutral for now. Still no interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this. Nothing has changed since last Sunday. Play the range or trade something else.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.2-14.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 11th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. The pivot forecast on February 11 worked as a reversal, similar to the extreme forecast on February 3. This marks the second reversal from the combined resistance of the MA20 and the large triangle boundary, which I discussed in previous posts. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle isn’t over yet, but it is very mature.
⚠️ Note that the pivot forecast on January 17 marked a triple top with the extreme forecasts of July 1 and April 12 (Retrograde Mercury). I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3.
Crude Oil (MCLH2025) – Bullish Setup DevelopingCrude Oil (MCLH2025) – Bullish Setup Developing
🟢 Long Bias | 🎯 Target: 71.47014 | ⏳ Deadline: Feb 14
Price is consolidating after a recent move, showing potential for an upward push. Watching for momentum to build toward the 71.47014 target. A break above could open further upside opportunities.
💡 All trades can be replayed on TradingView for confirmation.
#CrudeOil #MCL #Futures #TradingView #MarketAnalysis
Crude Oil - Ichimoku Theories + Price Action ConceptsNYMEX:CL1!
Combining your Ichimoku strategy, with market structure orderblocks, could provide you with support & resistance levels, for your Ichimoku trend bias.
- Here is Crude Oil futures, on a 4H timeframe
- Analyze how the orderblocks, provide key level resistance, for your short positions