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CRUDEOILM1! trade ideas

Crude Oil Broke Strucutre to the DOWN Side!here we have a pretty simple trade, price action on the daily has finally broke structure to the downside.. this week i'll be looking for sells, you can either enter on the open or look for imbalance GAPS for a slightly better entry on any PULL backs... i'll be adding additional entries as we break the next structure... the structures i have drawn up with the blue dotted lines are areas to target and also wait for the break down of that support area!!!! conclusion - simple trade keep it simple and don't over risk and over trade!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by therealbinarymaster
Tactical Setups & Opportunistic Fades Asset Focus: Crude Oil (WTI) Setup Type: Bull Trap Reversal with Structural Decompression – Tactical Short Bias ⸻ Setup Overview: Crude Oil has transitioned from an emotionally driven rally into a reactive phase of structural decompression. The advance was underwritten by geopolitical risk and inflation narratives, but failed to sustain as macro catalysts reversed. The recent U.S. tariff announcement and OPEC+’s unexpected supply adjustment have directly challenged the bullish framework, forcing a revaluation of near-term demand and policy trajectory. The result: a rejection event that is less about price and more about positioning. The crowd narrative cracked — and the structure followed. What unfolds now is not collapse, but reset. ⸻ COT & Sentiment Snapshot: • Leveraged funds expanded long exposure aggressively into strength — classic trend-chasing. • Recent positioning data shows contraction in net longs, signaling early-phase exit behavior. • Open interest has dropped in parallel with price — a sign of liquidation, not new conviction. • Commercial activity likely neutral-to-hedging, providing natural resistance into strength. • Sentiment rotated quickly — from supply fears to demand caution — validating the trap thesis. ⸻ Market Structure & Technical Breakdown: • Structure confirms a failed continuation — rejection at a known inflection zone undercuts trend integrity. • Rally occurred without foundational support — gaps beneath price reflect structural imbalance. • Price has rotated back through key pivots, invalidating prior momentum. • Thin, untested zones now offer a path of least resistance if pressure continues. • Current structure suggests rotational or decompressing behavior rather than directional clarity. ⸻ Behavioral Finance Layer: “When the justification for a trade becomes a headline, the trade is already crowded.” • Market participants had fully embraced oil as a geopolitical and inflation hedge — a one-dimensional thesis. • The introduction of U.S. tariffs and the OPEC+ supply shift challenged that belief in real time. • The rejection was not just technical — it was narrative failure. • Emotional capital is now unwinding. The next phase will not be fast — it will be unsure. ⸻ Reflexivity Risk Model: • Phase 1: Risk-driven narratives drive flow into the asset (conflict, inflation, supply tightness). • Phase 2: Price rise validates the narrative — conviction deepens, flows accelerate. • Phase 3: Macro catalysts shift (tariffs, supply bump), undermining belief system. • Phase 4: Narrative fails — positioning begins to unwind, structure decompresses under pressure. ⸻ Strategic Stance: Hold a tactical short bias grounded in structural rejection and narrative breakdown. No immediate directional call is required — the edge is in recognizing the psychological unwind already underway. Until a new belief structure emerges, the path forward remains governed by residual flow and fading conviction.
NYMEX:CL1!
by pharyeh
Crude oil-----buy near 68.90, target 69.90-72.00Crude oil market analysis: Yesterday's crude oil daily line showed continuous tombstones, which was suppressed near 72.00. Today's idea is to continue to look at the rebound in the short term and pay attention to the support near 68.70. This position is a buy rebound. We will wait for opportunities in the Asian session. Crude oil has begun to move on a weekly trend. We need to pay attention to this week's closing to determine whether it will start a weekly trend in the future. Fundamental analysis: Trump's midnight tariffs caused the market to tremble again. In addition, ADP rose sharply, with a result of 155,000 people, 80,000 people in advance, and 115,000 people expected. The bulls still pulled up under such a big negative situation. Operation suggestions: Crude oil-----buy near 68.90, target 69.90-72.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BraveTigercat
Crude oil---Buy near 70.60, target 71.90-76.00Crude oil market analysis: Today's crude oil is still bought at a low price, and short-term bulls have started. Yesterday, gold fell in the US market, but did not fall in the Asian market, but repaired at a high level. The strong support of the daily line has reached 70.00, and the small support is 70.50. Today's idea is to find buying opportunities above 71.50. The daily moving average of crude oil is lined up, and there is still a lot of room for growth. Fundamental analysis: This week is a data week. Today, pay attention to the ADP employment data, which is the pre-agricultural data. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 70.60, target 71.90-76.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BraveTigercat
Long Next Week: Crude Oil Set for Potential Price Recovery - Key Insights: Crude oil sees potential upward momentum with prices trading above the 8-day moving average. Market sentiment favors short-term recovery despite mid-level volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics. Analysts emphasize crude oil's undervaluation and opportunities due to supply constraints and potential oil production peaks by 2025. - Price Targets: Next week targets aim for a recovery from the current level. Tight stops and returns provide a trading framework. - T1: $71 - T2: $72 - S1: $67 - S2: $66 - Recent Performance: WTI crude oil is trading around $68, with predictions suggesting a pullback to $67 before potentially rising. Trading above its 8-day moving average suggests persisting upward momentum, pending market movement. Market volatility exists due to fluctuating demand-supply dynamics and geopolitical factors, with price support at $64.75 and resistance around $70 to $73.50, indicating critical levels for potential trends. - Expert Analysis: Analysts highlight the undervaluation in commodities, including crude oil, suggesting investment opportunities as the energy sector benefits from supply constraints. Expectations exist for peak oil production by 2025, which could lead to long-term market shortages and volatility. Companies like Occidental Petroleum remain sensitive to price variations, focusing on debt reduction and dividend increases. - News Impact: Geopolitical tensions related to Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil could pressure supply chains and affect price stability. The move towards renewable energy continues to reshape long-term demand; however, robust demand is anticipated until major shifts occur. China's crude oil strategies will significantly impact global supply and price alignment. Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding future price trajectories in the crude oil market.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls continued and surprised a bit with the follow-through. 3 consecutive bullish weeks now and market has touched 70 multiple times. 70-72 is my neutral target while leaning bullish below 68. Volume is atrocious but market is free to do whatever. Could see a retest of 66 as well as going higher for 72. Absolutely no opinion on this or interest in trading, other than small scalps. Look at the weekly tf and tell me how obvious everything is, be my guest. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 65 - 72 bull case: Bulls produce decent tails below daily bars and keeping the market above the daily 20ema and 69. Right now they have taken somewhat control of the market after many weeks of selling, likely due to bears being exhausted. Only a daily close above 70 would change my assessment though. Sideways is more likely for me and I have no bigger interest in buying at 70 when it could be the high of a potential trading range 65 - 70. Invalidation is below 65. bear case: Bears sold the market relentlessly for 2 months straight and do seem exhausted. Right now they want to keep 70 resistance and since this is the first decent bounce the bulls got, the odds of this going much further up are low. It’s still a bear flag on the weekly tf and a retest of 65/66 is possible. Daily close below 68 would make me look for shorts for 100-200 ticks lower but that’s about it. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral around 70. Bulls need a daily close above and bears something below 68 again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed last bear trend line, market is neutral at 70.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude Oil at Decision Point — Breakout Coming or Just More Chop?Crude is nearing the apex of a descending triangle, but the conflicting signals across timeframes make this a tough read. The daily is breaking out to the upside, while the 4H is pushing lower — classic mixed market structure. Are we about to fake out in both directions before rolling over to fresh lows, or is this a genuine attempt to break higher? Honestly, both long and short setups feel like low-probability plays right now. Sometimes, the best trade is no trade.
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradingNutCom
Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47!🚀 Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47! 🚀 📊 Trade Setup: Entry Price: $73.12 Take Profit 1: $73.99 Take Profit 2: $76.20 Take Profit 3: $78.47 Stop Loss: $71.21 (below key support zone) 📈 Analysis: After months of trading in a range, WTI Crude Oil has broken above the upper boundary of the channel , signaling a bullish breakout. This breakout is supported by: 1️⃣ China's Economic Optimism: Growth pledges and potential stimulus are boosting demand expectations. 2️⃣ Technical Momentum: Key resistance at $71.50 and $74 has been breached, opening the path toward higher targets. 3️⃣ Tight Weekly Chart Range: A big move was anticipated, and the bulls delivered! 🎯 Targets: With momentum on our side, we’re targeting: $73.99: Quick resistance retest. $76.20: Alignment with prior highs. $78.47: Major resistance and breakout zone. 🔹 Risk Management: Stop loss at $71.21, well below the key support zone, ensures controlled risk in case of reversal. ⚡ Are you riding the breakout, or watching from the sidelines? Let me know your thoughts below! ⚡
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ValchevFinance
Bearish Analysis: Crude Oil (CL Futures)1️⃣ Rejected at Supply Zone: The price was strongly rejected from the $80 supply zone, where sellers clearly took control. This zone has been a key resistance level, and the recent bearish momentum confirms strong selling pressure. 2️⃣ Bearish Momentum in Play: The sharp decline from the supply zone has broken short-term supports, signaling sustained bearish movement. The next major target is the $66–$67 demand zone, where buyers may step in. 3️⃣ Technical Indicators Supporting Bears: RSI: At 54.88, the RSI suggests there’s room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions. Stochastic Oscillator: A bearish crossover between the %K and %D lines confirms increasing selling pressure, with momentum favoring a continuation of the trend. 4️⃣ Fundamentals Adding Pressure: Trump’s Energy Policy: Potential policy changes to increase domestic oil supply could create a bearish outlook for crude oil. Stronger Dollar: The strengthening USD makes oil more expensive for global buyers, further dampening demand and supporting the bearish case. 🎯 Strategy: TP1: $75 (Near-term target, close to the current price). TP2: $74.30 (Minor support, a potential bounce or pause area). TP3: $72 (A strong psychological and technical level). TP4: $67 (Major demand zone). 🔔 Note: Consider using a positive stop loss to secure gains and reduce risk. Always practice proper risk management to protect your capital and maintain consistent results.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by ValchevFinance