GOLD is bullish, but is it giving a Entry?Extremely bullish on Gold but looking for the safe entry before getting in for the run. It looks like they want to pull back. Just have to wait it out and see if it lines up inside of the killzone.
GOLDM1! trade ideas
Year ahead 25' GoldGOLD Analysis
The uptrend channel remains intact, with price currently trading near the uptrend line. I’ll shift to lower timeframes to explore intraday opportunities.
Always consider all potential price movements and prioritize trades with the highest probability of success. Remember, patience and precision are essential for maintaining an edge in the markets.
Gold is Confusing-Physical is Simple Gold may have put in an IC top, or we could be early on a missed ICL
Long for Gold: Seizing Safe-Haven Opportunities Next Week
-Key Insights: Gold is maintaining its robust uptrend as it benefits from global
economic uncertainties, making it a favored safe-haven asset. Investors are
moving towards gold due to geopolitical tensions and a volatile stock market.
The precious metal's performance is strong compared to other sectors, with a
bullish outlook supported by experts and analysts.
-Price Targets: For the upcoming week, traders should consider the following
targets and stop levels for long positions: T1 at 3155 and T2 at 3220,
indicating potential gains. Set your stop levels at S1 of 3080 and a more
conservative S2 of 3050 to mitigate risks.
-Recent Performance: Gold has showcased a strong and consistent uptrend,
distinguishing itself amidst broader market volatility. Its appeal as a safe-
haven asset has attracted investor interest, particularly as geopolitical
tensions and trade developments influence market dynamics.
-Expert Analysis: Analysts maintain a bullish perspective on gold's trajectory.
Despite warnings of possible corrections if certain resistance levels are met,
the overall sentiment is optimistic. Experts emphasize the strength of gold in
current economic conditions, underscoring its appeal.
-News Impact: Ongoing trade war developments and geopolitical tensions are
significantly impacting gold prices, reinforcing its position as a safe haven.
Investors are advised to stay informed about tariff changes and policy shifts,
which can influence demand and drive price momentum.
In conclusion, gold remains in a favorable position, driven by persistent
economic uncertainties and investor flights to safety. Targeting the specified
levels can optimize outcomes for those positioning long in the market next week.
GOLD FUTURES may test $3307 and fallBased on ELLIOTT wave forecasting the current bulltrap or climax rally will extend to $3307.
The fifth of fifth wave may terminate anytime during first week of APRIL
Traders avoid going long in gold futures as next week it may face huge selloff
Weekly outlook on GoldExpecting all out displacement on Gold towards 3211. Massive bullish expansion in place
Easy & Effective Multi-Timeframe Trading StrategyI show you how to use simple market structure to determine a bias, 18 period moving average to confirm trend on entry timeframe, and how to use the %R to time your entries into the market in alignment with the dominant momentum.
Bullish PennantCheck the notes on the chart for a clear explanation of candlestick technical analysis.
Metals Could Catch Everyone off Guard Expect big fireworks these final weeks of the advancing stage of an intermediate cycle
Gold continues to be bullishThe temporary rise of gold this week is definitely the main theme. The view at the beginning of the week is oscillation, and the biggest characteristic of oscillation is discontinuity; the watershed yesterday morning was at the high point of the early morning pullback of 3015. The morning test fell back to the 07 line. When it was touched again for the second time, it must be a wait-and-see situation. We pointed out the oscillation resistance area of 3025-26, which is a position that must be shorted in our trading rules. In the end, it quickly retreated to the 3014 line, indicating that it is difficult to go long if it is short. Although it is a bottoming out and rebounding, the pressure area of the double top and the resistance area from the high point to the low point coincide with the 3035-36 line. This position is also a position that must be shorted. This is because our initial pattern at the beginning of the week is oscillation. It only needs to lock the upper and lower resistance and support levels of the range.The daily line direction recorded a small positive line with a slightly longer upper shadow yesterday, and the closing price was higher than the opening price. The upper shadow line indicates that the longs at the top of the shadow line have taken profits or the shorts have selling pressure. At the same time, the closing price is higher than the opening price. In the overnight battle between longs and shorts, the longs still dominate.
Gold operation suggestions: Go long near 3015-3020, stop loss 3008, target 3035
Short GC, can hedge with ESShort GC on 2 accounts, I hedged with Long ES on only 1 account.
Levels in video. Lets goooooooo
GOLD TOP IS NEARGold appears to be distributing on all timeframes excepting daily , this added to the extensive media coverage recently makes me think that a significant all time top is near , gold still maintains support on all timeframes but that is probably the only thing holding it from a big crash.
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.3-21.3 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 4th week of the new base cycle (15-20+ weeks), which began with retrograde Venus on March 3 from the extreme forecast level of October 28 (2850 on current futures). The start of retrograde Mercury had no impact on gold’s bullish trend. Mercury simply lacked the energy, as Venus is far stronger. Gold entered a correction at the pivot forecast on March 19, which I mentioned last week in the context of the stock market.
⚠️ Holding the long position from the extreme forecast on March 3. The movement range to the pivot forecast on March 19 for GC futures exceeded USD12K per contract. The next extreme forecast for gold is March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury. There is also a pivot forecast on March 27, but that is more relevant to crude.
directional zones to bias your tradeshi.
I use fibonacci zones and the concept of price expansion to draw these zones.
they help you determine which way price will go
via backtesting price can travel from one orange zone to another, with 70% accuracy, for the orange line I can only guarentee it'll touch the orange line, not follow through on there
throw on rsi and mfi and look at if both overbought or sold for an interesting zone reversal.
happy trading
GOLDGOLD HAVE NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE AT DAILY AND WEEKLY TIME FRAME
For this reason, GOLD Susceptible to correction
I THINK IF If geopolitical risks decrease, GOLD CAN BE START CORRECTION TREND
Mcx Gold getting ready for further details (feds decision)### **Gold Futures (MCX) 4H Chart Forecast**
#### **Key Levels:**
- **Resistance:**
- **89,500 - 91,000 INR** (Upper boundary of the trend channel)
- **Support Zones:**
- **87,930 INR** (First minor support)
- **86,665 - 86,149 INR** (Stronger support)
- **85,000 INR** (Major downside target)
#### **Technical Outlook:**
- Gold futures are currently trading around **88,682 INR**, still inside the **ascending channel**.
- **Potential Bullish Scenario:**
- If gold **sustains above 87,930 INR**, it may test **89,500 - 91,000 INR**.
- **Potential Bearish Scenario:**
- If gold **breaks below 87,930 INR**, it could drop to **86,665 - 86,149 INR**.
- Further breakdown below **86,000 INR** could push prices toward **85,000 INR**.
#### **Trading Strategy:**
- **Buy on dips** near **87,930 - 86,665 INR**, targeting **90,000 INR**.
- **Sell below 87,930 INR**, targeting **86,149 - 85,000 INR**.
- Watch for a **breakout above 89,500 INR** for a bullish push toward **91,000 INR**.
Gold The chart follows Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci retracements, and trend channel analysis. Here’s a summary of the key observations:
Key Technical Observations:
Elliott Wave Analysis:
The chart follows a five-wave impulse pattern.
Wave 3 appears to be reaching its peak, while wave 4 is anticipated to correct before wave 5 extends further.
Fibonacci Levels:
Key retracement levels are marked for potential corrections (e.g., 0.382 at ~2,945.5 and 0.5 at ~2,369.2).
An important 1.618 Fibonacci extension is at 3,101.3, indicating a potential price target.
Trend Channel:
The price is trading within an ascending parallel channel.
The upper boundary of this channel aligns with a potential wave 5 target near 3,845.2.
Support & Resistance Levels:
Support: ~2,804.2 and 2,561.2
Resistance: 3,044.3 (current high) and potential further levels at 3,101.3 and beyond.
RSI Indicator:
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 72.90, which suggests overbought conditions.
A possible correction (wave 4) could follow before the next bullish leg.
Summary:
Gold prices are in a strong uptrend but might face a short-term correction (wave 4) before resuming their uptrend (wave 5).
Fibonacci levels and trend channels indicate potential retracement zones (~2,945 or ~2,369) before the next leg higher.
RSI suggests overbought conditions, hinting at a possible pullback.
Long-term target could be around 3,845.2.
We Need a Retrace before the breakout IMO on GoldI want to go long. I am long on gold. but I need to see it pull back and establish a low for he week first before I'm interested in attempting the long. This would make for a much stronger move. Just have to be patient and wait for it all to line up inside of the killzone.
Bullish MoveOnce price reaches 3004.6 and retest that level then it will complete the final part of the (W) formation.
Behind the Curtain: Unveiling Gold’s Economic Catalysts1. Introduction
Gold Futures (GC, MGC and 1OZ), traded on the CME market, are one of the most widely used financial instruments for hedging against inflation, currency fluctuations, and macroeconomic uncertainty. As a safe-haven asset, gold reacts to a wide range of economic indicators, making it crucial for traders to understand the underlying forces driving price movements.
By leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we analyze the top economic indicators influencing Gold Futures on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. This data-driven approach reveals the key catalysts shaping GC Futures and provides traders with actionable insights to refine their strategies.
2. Understanding Gold Futures Contracts
Gold Futures (GC) are among the most actively traded futures contracts, offering traders and investors exposure to gold price movements with a range of contract sizes to suit different trading strategies. CME Group provides three types of Gold Futures contracts to accommodate traders of all levels:
o Standard Gold Futures (GC):
Contract Size: Represents 100 troy ounces of gold.
Tick Size: Each tick is 0.10 per ounce, equating to $10 per tick per contract.
Purpose: Ideal for institutional traders and large-scale hedgers.
Margin: Approximately $12,500 per contract.
o Micro Gold Futures (MGC):
Contract Size: Represents 10 troy ounces of gold, 1/10th the size of the standard GC contract.
Tick Size: Each tick is $1 per contract.
Purpose: Allows smaller-scale traders to participate in gold markets with lower capital requirements.
Margin: Approximately $1,250 per contract.
o 1-Ounce Gold Futures (1OZ):
Contract Size: Represents 1 troy ounce of gold.
Tick Size: Each tick is 0.25 per ounce, equating to $0.25 per tick per contract.
Purpose: Provides precision trading for retail participants who want exposure to gold at a smaller contract size.
Margin: Approximately $125 per contract.
Keep in mind that margin requirements vary through time as market volatility changes.
3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators
Gold Futures respond quickly to short-term economic fluctuations, and three key indicators play a crucial role in daily price movements:
o Velocity of Money (M2):
Measures how quickly money circulates within the economy.
A higher velocity suggests increased spending and inflationary pressure, often boosting gold prices.
A lower velocity indicates stagnation, which may reduce inflation concerns and weigh on gold.
o Unemployment Rate:
Reflects the strength of the labor market.
Rising unemployment increases economic uncertainty, often driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Declining unemployment can strengthen risk assets, potentially reducing gold’s appeal.
o Oil Import Price Index:
Represents the cost of imported crude oil, influencing inflation trends.
Higher oil prices contribute to inflationary pressures, supporting gold as a hedge.
Lower oil prices may ease inflation concerns, weakening gold demand.
4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators
While daily fluctuations impact short-term traders, weekly economic data provides a broader perspective on gold price movements. The top weekly indicators include:
o Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP):
Measures the number of new jobs added in the U.S. economy each month.
Strong NFP numbers typically strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase interest rate hike expectations, pressuring gold prices.
Weak NFP figures can drive economic uncertainty, increasing gold’s safe-haven appeal.
o Nonfarm Productivity:
Represents labor efficiency and economic output per hour worked.
Rising productivity suggests economic growth, potentially reducing demand for gold.
Falling productivity can signal economic weakness, increasing gold’s appeal.
o Personal Spending:
Tracks consumer spending habits, influencing economic activity and inflation expectations.
Higher spending can lead to inflation, often pushing gold prices higher.
Lower spending suggests economic slowing, which may either weaken or support gold depending on inflationary outlooks.
5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators
Long-term trends in Gold Futures are shaped by macroeconomic forces that impact investor sentiment, inflation expectations, and interest rates. The most influential monthly indicators include:
o China GDP Growth Rate:
China is one of the largest consumers of gold, both for investment and jewelry.
Strong GDP growth signals robust demand for gold, pushing prices higher.
Slower growth may weaken gold demand, applying downward pressure on prices.
o Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y):
Measures the risk premium between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds.
A widening spread signals economic uncertainty, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
A narrowing spread suggests confidence in risk assets, potentially reducing gold’s appeal.
o 10-Year Treasury Yield:
Gold has an inverse relationship with bond yields since it does not generate interest.
Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, often leading to price declines.
Falling yields make gold more attractive, leading to price appreciation.
6. Risk Management Strategies
Given gold’s volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic changes, risk management is essential for trading GC Futures. Key risk strategies may include:
Monitoring Global Liquidity Conditions:
Keep an eye on M2 Money Supply and inflation trends to anticipate major shifts in gold pricing.
Interest Rate Sensitivity:
Since gold competes with yield-bearing assets, traders should closely track interest rate movements.
Higher 10-Year Treasury Yields can weaken gold’s value as a non-yielding asset.
Diversification and Hedging:
Traders can hedge gold positions using interest rate-sensitive assets such as bonds or inflation-linked securities.
Gold often performs well in times of equity market distress, making it a commonly used portfolio diversifier.
7. Conclusion
Gold Futures remain one of the most influential instruments in the global financial markets.
By leveraging machine learning insights and macroeconomic data, traders can better position themselves for profitable trading opportunities. Whether trading daily, weekly, or monthly trends, understanding these indicators allows market participants to align their strategies with broader economic conditions.
Stay tuned for the next "Behind the Curtain" installment, where we explore economic forces shaping another key futures market.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Gold - Good Risk/Reward on move potential move lowerGold has pushed up to the $3k mark over the past few days but lacks volume/momentum to hold $3k and move higher from there.
The recent market dislocation (Gold Futures vs Spot rate) which resulted in physical gold moving from London vaults to NYC has narrowed so that driver for the price has subsided.
Macro Economic turmoil (tariff uncertainty) looks more priced into markets now (although who knows where the bottom is) but gold as safe-haven at current levels looks less enticing for investors.
Gap up from circa $2,955- $2,990 with little market structure between makes sharp drop more likely than further drive higher at this point.
Any move higher likely to be more subdued rather than sharp which allows for tighter stop loss just above $3k mark with $2.98k the next stop then $2.96k then to $2.95k where it meets stronger market structure.
This makes for a 4:1 reward/risk but worth trimming position at weaker (yellow) demand levels/movign stop to break even as/when the move starts playing out.
Wait for move higher toward $2.97k to enter on optimal risk/reward ration and expect any move sharply lower to be in London-NY open hours.
***Remember there is no certainty, only probability combined with good risk management***
Gold Analysis Futures Pricing: Gold, The Revival....A clear pattern emerged as liquidity exited cryptocurrencies, equities, and indexes, redirecting into gold amid significant institutional short positioning ahead of its break above $3,000. This capital rotation indicated a well-orchestrated move, aligning with broader macroeconomic and geopolitical interests.
Given this dynamic, there is reason to believe the Trump administration may favor a stronger gold market, potentially as a strategic measure to ease geopolitical tensions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin has previously expressed dissatisfaction with gold’s position relative to digital assets in global markets, making this shift particularly noteworthy.
I am requesting reputation points to contribute further insights. Engage with this post—like, follow, and comment to continue the discussion.
Sit on hands! Wait for Gold to reveal its move!Letting monday play out. We should get a better, clear move on Tuesday after price has moved to establish a low for the week. not trying to be to early to the party so we wait for now.
