6/13/24 - $ADBE - Too risky to neck out this EPS = sidelined6/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ADBE
purely looking at the #s, this stock should post decent result and maybe see a 5-10% bump. that's in a bubble world where you ignore all the nuances that make this game so difficult. it's one of the "cheaper" larger techs (200 bn) that can throw off 7 bn in FCF which puts yield at 3.5% and in the context of growth/ a sticky product makes it "better than cash". 25x EPS that's growing 10-15% - that's fine - not great - and all else equal still on the pricy side outside of a massive beat (which would reset a lot of things and having this barreling up 20+% - i think a low probability - but worth pointing out).
the downside here, though, is the recent change to policy that seems to have users up in arms about Adobe taking control of content you publish to their cloud to train their AI. i bet they could do so much with all this data which is why they're land grabbing for it - but people - especially the core customer base is PISSED. i'd be too. so they're clearly playing catch up in the AI space (which btw is the main reason the last EPS was received so poorly) and if they're going to fight a tough battle on content to keep accelerating this effort... hrm. i'd guess this could weigh on willingness to keep buy/owning a beat and should the results fall in-line and the conf call reflect this key concern... stock is down and we test that $440 level very quickly.
all in - if i didn't own it (which i don't) i don't feel the need to play this one. it's software (which generally has no bid - and AI being the culprit - in this case it's at the forefront of concerns). it's not dirt cheap and it's not expensive but growing like a weed. it's sort of in no man's land.
i'm planning to buy the dip if it's an outsized >10% or better 15% (which i think is probably lower probability given the co's healthy cash generation golden goose product), and i wouldn't chase upside. if you're holding for the MT... this spot is just fine. you might weather some volatility but overall it's a great leader in it's domain that probably figures things out (which might just involve an apology lol - easier said than done - but still easy).
hope it helps
V
PS - here's what i wrote to myself post last EPS when i considered buying it, for context.
3/15/24 - tough one on this 4Q result which was "solid" but not a big beat + AI concerns that will chip away the interest of the incremental non-flows-based buyer for an outperformance ST. Probably not excess returns until we see another Q - stock not cheap also but does yield about 2.5%-3% FCF at current rates - though if this is a MT/LT concern to AI today, you'll struggle to make this below 2.5%... so stock should still trend to ATH eventually all else equal, but need a better entry, ideally on a macro-related dump that drags it decisively below ST current value. the issue here is a down stock on a goodish print will be the first to be sold, later to be bought on a macro/beta-style dump so just keep an eye out and probably sub $450 closer to $400 ideal to own
