Can We Get +EV from EV? With stocks like FCX, sometimes the answer isn’t just about gold—it’s about finding the copper that holds everything together.
While everyone scrambles for the gold nuggets in the mainstream Electric Vehicle (EV) market, you might be missing opportunities further upstream in the feeder streams. These are the overlooked areas that quietly power the whole operation. As I work on my 2025 guide to researching and finding hidden gems in this very market, I stumbled upon a curious situation that’s sometimes overlooked when researching a stock: a well-timed opportunity to combine deeper research with the possibility of an early position.
What is that opportunity, you ask? Well, it’s all about timing and understanding the mechanics of dividends, coupled with an upcoming earnings catalyst.
The Hidden Value in Copper
Let’s face it—copper wire isn’t exactly the sexiest investment out there. But sometimes, the dressed-down stock has a greater long-term value precisely because it spans multiple industries. Copper isn’t just critical for EV motors and renewable energy—it’s a foundation material for infrastructure, electronics, and more.
Enter Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX). This copper powerhouse caught my attention for two key reasons:
1. A dividend payout date approaching on Jan 15, offering a 1.6% yield.
2. An earnings report set for Jan 23, creating the potential for amplified movement shortly after the dividend window.
Now, before you jump in, remember: this isn’t about chasing dividends or speculative hype. Instead, it’s an opportunity to observe, research, and learn. Here’s why FCX is a fascinating case study and what to watch for.
Why FCX Is a Great Study
1. **Dividend Catalyst (Jan 15)
- Watching the stock’s behavior leading up to and after the ex-dividend date could give insights into how investors value the dividend.
- Track whether the stock trades with increased volume or volatility as traders position themselves to collect the dividend.
2. **Earnings Catalyst (Jan 23)
- With earnings just a week after the ex-dividend date, you have a rare overlap of events that could amplify price movement.
- Depending on sentiment, the stock could rebound from the ex-dividend price drop—or face additional pressure if earnings or guidance disappoint.
3. **Copper Exposure
- FCX is already on our radar for its ties to EVs, renewable energy, and infrastructure projects.
- Broader copper demand, influenced by economic sentiment or supply chain news, could add another layer of movement to this stock.
What to Watch
1. Pre-Dividend Price Action (Now through Jan 14)
- Look for increased buying as traders position for the dividend.
- Monitor volume trends and whether FCX breaks key technical levels.
- Keep an eye on market sentiment and copper-related news.
2. Ex-Dividend Price Adjustment (Jan 15)
- Observe if the stock drops by exactly the dividend amount ($0.15) or if external factors cause a different adjustment.
- Watch for recovery post-drop—does buying interest resume, or does the stock stall?
3. Earnings Anticipation (Jan 16–23)
- Monitor implied volatility (IV) for options, as IV typically rises before earnings.
- Consider how copper prices or macroeconomic trends (like China reopening or U.S. infrastructure spending) might affect sentiment heading into earnings.
4. Post-Earnings Reaction (Jan 23 and Beyond)
- Listen to the earnings call for insights on copper demand, production costs, and forward contracts.
- Note whether the stock aligns with broader copper and EV trends or diverges based on the results.
Possible Outcomes
1. Bullish Scenario
- Dividend buying drives interest, and earnings provide a strong catalyst for growth.
- The stock rebounds quickly after the ex-dividend date and continues upward momentum post-earnings.
2. Bearish Scenario
- Dividend adjustment leads to further downside pressure, and earnings fail to meet expectations.
- The stock underperforms compared to copper peers.
3. Neutral Scenario
- Dividend adjustment happens as expected, and earnings provide no surprises.
- FCX trades sideways, maintaining a range-bound pattern.
How to Track and Document
1. **Price & Volume:**
- Record closing prices from now through Jan 23.
- Note volume spikes and their timing relative to events.
2. **Options Activity:**
- Monitor the options chain for changes in implied volatility as earnings approach.
- Look for unusual activity around certain strikes or expirations.
3. **Copper Prices:**
- Track global copper prices, as they could influence sentiment for FCX.
4. **News Flow:**
- Stay updated on copper demand, EV adoption, and infrastructure-related headlines.
A Practical Exercise in +EV Thinking
FCX presents a unique opportunity to explore the layered dynamics of dividends, earnings, and macroeconomic trends. Even if you don’t take a position, tracking these events can sharpen your understanding of how catalysts play out in real time.
And, of course, this study aligns perfectly with the philosophy behind my upcoming eBook and print guide:
**“Adding to Your Nest with EV in 2025 – A guide for researching the hidden gems in the EV market sector of trading.”**
So, can we get +EV from EV? The answer lies upstream, in the copper that holds everything together.
-Bob Cavin 3
