10-19-24 GME Looking Very BullishBasic Fib, Elliot Wave and Channel looking nice, along with this swooping up pattern that I dont really understand.
1GME trade ideas
Testing Some Elliot Wave TheoryLooking at Fib levels along with Elliot Wave has proven to be extremely useful as I'm learning to use these with GME.
Always open to any thoughts.
GME 15-minute Bullish SqueezeGME is showing a squeeze waiting to fire on the 15-minute chart, with propulsion dots showing as well to support a bullish breakout. Look for price to move upward and the squeeze momentum histogram bars to turn green for an early sign.
MOASS: How Will We Know Its OverSo far in our coverage of GME we have told you how high we think price will go during MOASS and also what technical triggers we think will lead to take off
We have also told you, from a timing perspective, when we think MOASS will kick into high gear (Oct 21st)
What we havent told you is how to know when MOASS is over
The short answer is: A break below VWAP
As we told you last week VWAP is a key data point that Institutions/Hedge Funds use to identify ideal entries/exits
Its also a key data point used to define acceptable risk (i.e. XYZ standard deviations from VWAP things break)
Like the Jan 21 squeeze this one will most likely be triggered by a Short Squeeze/ Gamma Ramp which will lead to forced buy-ins and extreme delta hedging
In a Short Squeeze/ Gamma Ramp environment VWAP is THE MOST IMPORTANT DATA POINT TO SHORTS
As long as price is ABOVE VWAP its not advantageous for them to close their positions...
And that is why your trigger to know that MOASS may be winding down is that first dip BELOW VWAP after price explodes
M O A S S
could go a lot higher Probaply nothing, but realy like the idea here.
Would need a strong narrative, some news arround the stock or RC, RK
GME breakout in 15 trading days (TV DELETED OG IDEA TODAY!!!)I posted my analysis and chart with Gamma peaks and updated it every few days, today I saw I had several more boosts to the idea so I was going to update it and.... its just gone, totally deleted. Ill post this again, Thanks for the support and good luck!!!
MOASS- Oct 21st...BOOM!We thought we would use this weeks post to highlight exactly what key triggers we think will signal lift off
Its widely known that VWAP levels are a key data point in almost all institutional algo trading systems
VWAP is important because it helps the algos identify optimal levels to enter/exit positions and define risk
The movie Margin Call does a good job of demonstrating how VWAP is used by firms
The Models they reference in the movie are using VWAP and Standard Deviations of price from VWAP to define acceptable risk...specifically margin and liquidity requirements
Price breaking too many standard deviations from VWAP is what caused the music to stop..its how they lost control of their shorts and derivative positions
Based on those researchable and verifiable facts, the defined VWAPS on the chart should be trigger levels for SWAPS/ Short positions
Case in point if you do the math, the 2022 swap agreements were entered into at a price of approx 37.92
Assuming that those positions were setup to be profitable if GME declined in price, the SWAP/Short holders need to ensure that they dont let price break and sustain above that level
And what does the chart show? Since 2022 price has spent significantly more time UNDER 37.92 than over it
EVERY time price has broken over that level it is immediately shorted down
Conversely notice that VWAP since the 2021 squeeze high is at essentially the same price as the 2022 Swaps...WE DO NOT THINK THAT IS COICIDENCE
Ok great so we rocket ship once price breaks 37.92/VWAP since squeeze high...when is that going to happen Heartbeat Trading?
Short Answer: Oct 21st
From an Elliott Wave time perspective the 0.618 and 1 fib tend to be when price starts to get volatile and volume begins to flow in
When price is in a bullish price structure that usually results in significant movement higher in the direction of the prevailing trend
Since this is a short squeeze play we also anticipate seeing an exponential increase in Short Volume beginning Oct 21st
So now you know the main things we are watching and when we really anticipate price to run
M O A S S
$GME - October 1-15If anything was going to happen it was gonna happen and it didn't.
I did notice this brilliant little thing though. Could mean we're having another May-Like run.
imgur.com
The timeline for this is October 1-15, potentially may get pushed to 22-31 Oct due to unknown factors or events around those times like another big scam company announced by Hiddenburg conveniently coming out when the data shows a run or something about Carl Icahn again.
It does look nice though. I'll be monitoring its progress and see if it continues to be similar to the May run. If it does, the buy time would be 26-30 Sept. Will let you know as i have a few loans to pay off now and can't join these ones so they're all yours to destroy by inversing this post.
Till then, GME looks like it'll be doing the usual boring stuff like going sideways, dumping on earnings, re-pumping the next day back to normal and then dropping slowly over time again to an even lower price point as people get comfortable selling their CC's and then covering them around the timeline i mentioned whilst getting ready to sell CC's at the new GME top thus cutting any big runs short.
The good runs are the runs none of you know about, because that way no one's expecting and thus no one has their fingers ready on the CC selling button the moment they see a 10cent peak. So technically i'm the run destroyer. A watched pot never boils over.
Crazy ideaWaiting and thinking for 84 years tends gives some crazy ideas after looking at the same chart for so long
$GME - Ready to goDespite the 20 million share offer, they still haven't returned the millions of shares that they've borrowed recently. The slightest incident that requires them to have more shares (Like having to cover FTDs) may send it sky high. I shall keep an eye out for another ATM offer published during premarket. If it doesn't happen, then I think it's a go.
Not advice, only my opinion
MOASS: October= Light FuseWe are continuing our call that MOASS is imminently on the horizon
Note the 0.618 and the 1 fib on the time axis of the chart
From a fib time perspective between those levels you tend to see explosive volatility ending in positive movement in the direction of the prevailing trend
We are predicting near term strength in the broad market as well which should help push GME along
We also think that by the end of the year the broad market will begin a massive trek lower which will put significant pressure on margin levels
This coupled with the fact that per recent reports Banks are carrying the largest levels EVER of unrealized losses on securities, should be the core ingredients that fuel shorts unwinding and MOASS commencing
Thats our story and we are sticking to it lol
Good Trading To All!
M O A S S
Gme rally tomorrow We’ve rallied every Friday in September
Currently have bull flag 1hr heading towards $24
Next weeek should be Beautiful!!
MOASSTLDR: MOASS is about to kick into high gear and Elliott Wave has given us some solid targets from a price and time perspective
MOASS Target Price: $1800-$2400..with potential for us to see pockets of trades fill at even higher levels (remember if price overshoots a target we just look to the next fib)
Timeframe to complete: End of Jan 2025 (pay attention to the fibs on the time axis)
It is time
Our patience is about to be rewarded
Friday saw, what we think is the fuse lighting (hint hint) for what we will look back later and call: MOASS
We have been pounding the table saying that GME is bullish
Elliott Wave Theory has done a great job tracking general price movements
Again, if you are judging Elliott Wave Theorys efficacy by its exactness then you have the wrong expectation
As we have explained many times Elliott Wave gives you IDEALIZED targets but price can and will overshoot/undershoot those targets...and we expect that to happen
Which is why we say EVERY FIB that we show on the chart is important because when overshoots/undershoots happen we just look to the next Fib as our target...and we do this until the price structure changes and invalidates our count
Thats why we constantly talk about PRICE STRUCTURE
Ultimately, price structure, too us, means is the overall structure Bullish (impulsive) or Bearish (corrective)
So with that said this chart lays out exactly how high we think this gets and also how long it might take
Pay close attention to EVERY FIB on the PRICE and the TIME axis...we expect price to react significantly to every one
Oh for the last time...for those that think price could never reach the prices we project ( aka at those prices GME would be XXXXXXXXXXXX Market cap blah blah) we are NOT saying that price will be SUSTAINED at those levels...we are saying price will TEMPORARILY reach those levels..
Remember we are calling targets for a SHORT SQUEEZE here..not a FUNDAMENTAL price target
M O A S S
18,84 is a critical level for GMEI´m expecting that this stock is on the way to fall below 18,84 and start move towards 10. However one more aggressive spike at 18,84 is very likely from "averaging traders". So be careful with entry. Wish you good luck.
GME- 20%+ Move IncomingNow that we are finally past earnings and the, customary for GME, earnings dip, price can finally get moving
The FED and surrounding conversation will provide the volatility we need
We are predicting a 20%+ move back to the 25 level (should see that move this week)
After that the 28-30 level will be the next target and subsequent resistance zone
From there THINGS GET EXTREMELY SPICY as the 38-40 level is extremely dangerous for Shorts in our estimation
We will continue to track the elliott wave counts at a micro level but as you see from the higher level charts we continue to see GME as EXTREMELY BULLISH
G A M E O N
GameStop ($GME) Faces Challenges as Stock Plummets 14.65% Shares of GameStop (NYSE: NYSE:GME ), the once high-flying meme stock, plunged nearly 15% in premarket trading on Wednesday. This dramatic drop came after the video game retailer reported a steep 31% decline in quarterly revenue, overshadowing its swing to profitability. As GameStop grapples with the evolving gaming landscape and a strategic overhaul, investors are left questioning the company's ability to stage a meaningful comeback.
Revenue Decline Overshadows Profitability
GameStop (NYSE: NYSE:GME ) has been feverishly restructuring, aiming to revive its business by closing underperforming stores and focusing on value-added products to enhance sales. However, the latest quarterly results paint a grim picture. Despite achieving a net profit, the company's revenue plummeted by 31%, a decline that raises concerns about its long-term growth prospects.
The company announced plans to sell up to 20 million shares to fund future acquisitions, marking another strategic pivot. This move follows GameStop's earlier capital raises totaling over $3 billion, which were driven by wild stock price swings fueled by retail investors and prominent traders like Keith Gill, known as "Roaring Kitty." However, the market's reaction was far from favorable, as shares slid further after Gill's return to social media failed to ignite the same enthusiasm seen in 2021.
The declining sales reflect the broader trend of consumers moving away from physical game discs toward digital downloads and streaming services. This shift has heavily impacted GameStop’s core business, pushing the company to diversify its offerings. Despite these efforts, the retailer’s ability to stabilize its revenue remains uncertain.
Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown Looms
GameStop's technical outlook is equally concerning. Since early June, NYSE:GME stock has been trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with price oscillations tightening as bulls and bears vie for control. After a brief three-day rally, the stock was rejected at the triangle’s upper trendline, highlighting market uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.
Wednesday’s sharp drop could signal a potential breakdown below the triangle’s lower trendline, opening the door to further downside. Key levels to watch include:
1. $18.50: This area represents a potential support level near the 200-day moving average (MA) and past peaks and troughs. Holding this level is crucial; failure to do so may lead to further declines.
2. $15.25: If $18.50 fails to hold, the next critical support is at $15.25, where the stock has seen periods of consolidation earlier this year. This level may serve as an entry point for value-seeking investors.
3. $13.25: A breakdown to this level would represent a 43% drop from Tuesday’s close, marking a critical support zone where buying interest could re-emerge based on historical lows.
Despite the bearish setup, there remains the potential for a meme-fueled rally driven by retail investor enthusiasm. A key bullish target would be the $30.50 area, where traders might look to capitalize on past gaps and resistance levels, especially during periods of heightened volatility.
The Road Ahead: A Cautious Outlook
As GameStop (NYSE: NYSE:GME ) continues its transformation, investors should remain cautious. The company's ability to stabilize revenue and navigate the shift towards digital gaming will be paramount to its recovery. While the stock’s RSI currently sits near oversold territory at 47.61, indicating some potential for a bounce, the broader technical picture suggests a challenging path forward.
Investors should closely monitor the key support and resistance levels highlighted above, as well as any further developments from GameStop’s management regarding its strategic initiatives. With market sentiment fragile and the stock under pressure, GameStop’s next moves could prove pivotal in determining whether it can reclaim its status as a meme stock legend or continue its downward spiral.
Stay tuned, as GME's journey is far from over—and volatility is almost guaranteed.
Waiting for more information Waiting for new structure to form to see where we could go from here. Currently In limbo.
GME price pattern for recent ATM offering based on prior ATMsAfter having a look at how GME performed during the last three ATM offerings (June '21, May '24, June '24) I expect something like the above chart for the current ATM offering.
After opening at a lower price than the previous closing price, GME tends to pump a bit (something like 5-15%) and forms a pretty linear selling off until the ATM is done.
The recent ATM offering sells 20m shares on the open market, the last ones were: June '21 (20m), May '24 (40m), June '24 (75m). Shares sold were roughly 10-13% of daily trading volume. The recent trading volume was not that high, so I expect the ATM offering to be complete ideally at Friday, realistically ~Tuesday next week. GME should bottom then.
Bullish on macro though.
$GME Macro POI: Scenario 1Displayed is the macro POI of NYSE:GME , in this basket of "meme" stocks it is clear that we are in late phase C of Wyckoff Accumulation. I believe we will see our first markup sometime by mid october.. This can be completely altered with CPI data being released..
GME LONGI do not have a "reason" for the move - quite simply this is a technical structure which has been showing price activity month over month for a while now and you can see this massive falling wedge structure on the weekly and monthly which just broke out recently and formed a new smaller pennant that it is currently in.
On this is quite simple - this is a stock that gains momentum easily and can do 100% moves very easily. I will watch for the breach of $35 which will lead to a move to 88-90.
Watching this pennant for a break for a test of 35 - followed by the decision of a breakout or a fail at that spot.
GME- Game On...Now What?We have been steadfastly saying that GMEs price structure is bullish
Even as price made its way back down to under 19 we were pounding the table on here saying that NOTHING HAS CHANGED with the price structure
The reason we can be so confident is because no matter what Reddit says- TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS WORKS ON GME
We use a simple system that combines Elliott Wave Theory with Volume analysis to determine probable turning points in the market
With that said GME has one of the most BULLISH price structures we have ever seen in a stock and is adhering to EVERY Elliott Wave Theory rule
NOW WHAT?
At an absolute minimum we should see price move over 100 and make new All Time Highs over the next 4-6 weeks (full disclosure- we are less confident about the timing than we are the price targets)
We think approx the 38 level is where MOASS gets triggered
That is the approx level where Hedgies entered into the 2022 SWAPS agreement that expired end of May
The 38 level also coincides with the approx volume weighted average price as measured on a weekly timeframe from the peak of the Jan 2021 squeeze to Fridays close...WE DO NOT THINK THAT IS COINCIDENCE
So from here we will let the chart lead the way
But as we have repeatedly said...EVERY FIB YOU SEE ON OUR CHARTS IS IMPORTANT..ESPECIALLY the 618s (0.618, 1.618, 2.618, etc)...watch those as they will help guide the way
G A M E O N
Gamestop (GME) local bottom?Look at this retest of this horizontal support at around $20.
GME has also retested and held the EMA50 on the weekly time frame, which looks quite promising, like a mean reversion and even more bullish because it is a higher time frame.
GameStop ($GME) Earnings PreviewGameStop ( NYSE:GME ) is set to report its quarterly earnings on Tuesday, September 10th, after the market closes. Analysts are bracing for a challenging report, expecting lower revenue, a slightly larger net loss, and a significant decline in comparable store sales year-over-year. However, the stock's recent technical setup and less volatile trading pattern suggest potential opportunities for traders and investors alike. Here's an in-depth look at both the fundamental and technical aspects of GameStop as we approach the earnings release.
Key Financial Metrics and Projections
GameStop ( NYSE:GME ) has been grappling with declining sales, increased competition, and shifting consumer behavior in the video game retail space. Analysts project revenue of $900 million for Q2 2024, down from $1.16 billion in the same quarter last year, reflecting a year-over-year decline of approximately 22.4%. The company's net loss is expected to widen slightly to $5.3 million, up from a $2.8 million loss in Q2 2023.
Key Financial Estimates:
- Revenue: Expected to decline to $900 million from $1.16 billion YoY.
- Net Loss: Projected at $5.3 million, larger than last year's loss of $2.8 million but significantly improved from Q1 2024's $32.3 million loss.
- Comparable Store Sales: Expected to drop nearly 23% year-over-year, a key metric highlighting reduced consumer spending on discretionary items, including video games.
Factors Influencing Fundamentals:
- Lower Consumer Spending: Amid inflationary pressures, discretionary spending has taken a hit as consumers prioritize essentials. This shift has particularly impacted GameStop’s sales.
- Shift to Digital Sales: The ongoing transition from physical game sales to digital downloads continues to challenge GameStop’s traditional business model.
- New Strategic Moves: GameStop recently announced plans to convert some of its stores to "retro" locations, focusing on nostalgic gaming experiences. This could attract a niche audience but remains an unproven revenue driver.
Technical Analysis: A Bullish Setup in the Making?
Despite the grim outlook on the fundamental side, GameStop’s technical setup tells a different story. As of the latest market session, NYSE:GME is up 3.17%, with the stock showing promising technical signals.
Key Technical Insights:
- RSI at 55: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 55, indicating a balanced momentum that is neither overbought nor oversold. This suggests that NYSE:GME is maintaining a healthy momentum without being at extreme levels, which could indicate further price movement.
- Symmetrical Triangle Pattern: The daily price chart depicts a symmetrical triangle pattern—a bullish continuation or reversal setup that often precedes a significant breakout. With converging trendlines, this pattern typically signals a buildup in buying pressure, leading to a potential upside move.
Trading Volume and Volatility:
- Volume Trends: Trading volume has been steady, reflecting less of the extreme volatility seen earlier in 2024. This calmer trading behavior may provide a more predictable environment for swing traders looking for a breakout opportunity.
- Support and Resistance Levels: Key support is around the $16 mark, while resistance sits near the $20 level. A breakout above this resistance could catalyze further gains, especially if positive earnings surprises or forward guidance are announced.
Market Sentiment and Influences:
- Meme Stock Legacy: While GameStop remains a heavily watched stock due to its meme status, recent activity has been relatively muted compared to past years. Influential trader Keith Gill, also known as “Roaring Kitty,” recently made a social media comeback, posting a cryptic message that could reignite interest among retail investors.
- Analyst Ratings and Revisions: Analysts have been cautious, with recent revisions reflecting skepticism about GameStop’s ability to return to profitability. However, any positive guidance or surprise in earnings could quickly alter this sentiment, given the stock’s history of sharp moves.
Outlook and Trading Strategy
Near-Term Outlook: GameStop’s upcoming earnings report will be crucial in setting the tone for its stock trajectory. While the fundamentals suggest ongoing challenges, the technical setup and market sentiment hint at the possibility of a bullish breakout, particularly if earnings beat expectations or management outlines a compelling strategic direction.
Potential Strategy: Traders may consider positioning for a potential breakout, closely watching key levels around the symmetrical triangle pattern. Caution is advised due to the inherent volatility around earnings announcements.
Conclusion: GameStop’s stock sits at a crossroads, with fundamental challenges being counterbalanced by a potentially bullish technical formation. Investors should keep an eye on Tuesday’s earnings release for critical insights into GameStop’s future direction.
As NYSE:GME continues to evolve from its meme stock origins, the upcoming financial results could provide pivotal data points for both short-term traders and long-term investors seeking to understand its market dynamics.
