LMT: Strategic BlowCouple of days ago the world witnessed how current U.S. president on practice could remotely deactivate rocket systems given by previous U.S. administration for Ukraine's defense. One may argue it's a reckless decision, another might say it's a "multi-dimensional chess".. Instead of diving into politics, I would like to focus why this single event alone can negatively impact Lockheed Martin Corporation.
The reminder that U.S.-supplied missiles, like HIMARS, can be remotely disabled by Washington poses a significant risk to Lockheed Martin’s stock price by undermining its future revenue streams and market credibility. International buyers may hesitate or outright refuse to enter new contracts, fearing potential operational restrictions in critical moments. This could lead to a decline in foreign military sales, which constitute a substantial portion of Lockheed Martin’s revenue. Furthermore, the growing shift towards alternative defense suppliers such as European, Israeli, or even domestic military programs in allied nations could shrink Lockheed’s global market share, leading to lower growth projections. Additionally, investors may react negatively to the perception that Lockheed Martin’s products are now subject to geopolitical conditions beyond the company’s control, increasing the risk of contract cancellations or reduced order volumes. If foreign governments pivot toward competitors or indigenous defense industries, Lockheed Martin’s long-term revenue forecasts could be revised downward, leading to stock devaluation. Given the company’s reliance on government contracts, the uncertainty surrounding U.S. arms policies could trigger investor anxiety, prompting sell-offs that put downward pressure on Lockheed Martin’s stock price. Therefore, I believe that even if the current uptrend continues, the price won't go that far within channel as it could if the executive order didn't take place.
