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1MPC trade ideas

$MPC - Really like this one for some reason A great reminder when posting an idea / realizing a setup has potential - chart duration should play a huge role in that lol. A lot can happen in 4 hours that can't happen in 30 min etc., I say this as I go over all old personal screenshots saved w/ this strategy to see what I missed, or if there was something shown for shorter duration charts that weren't necessarily clear for a longer term but, getting off topic - red line should see the start of semi-serious price action. Working on making for a more accurate candle count estimations based on least-moving-squares weighted averages & I can definitely say there's been some progress. $MPC isn't the ideal setup for it, but it is close. I like the chart regardless, so I'll have it on watch.
NYSE:MPCLong
by DerekD_
MPC: Long term uptrend signal$MPC has an excellent long term uptrend signal at play here. If not long you should average in over 3 days at least, risking a drop to 43.42, or 3 daily average ranges down. Targets are 89.66 and potentially up to 143.09 in the long run, to be hit by or before Q4 2019. My mentor, Tim West has been adamant about $MPC's strengt, and so far he's been right. This stock has shown relative strength, selling off less than its peers and rallying more and with lower volatility, indicating that there are some big players involved, buying in the background. Fundamentals are great for this company, and valuation is compelling, so it's a really low risk trade. I'd reccomend holding this and $PBF for exposure in this sector. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:MPCLong
by IvanLabrie
Short MPCIf oil takes a significant dip overnight, I will be short MPC. I don't think there is any fundamental to support this stock to the upside anyways, so I am shorting calls. Plus I am not much of an options buyer unless to trying to hit a home run. The blue line represents options expiration day. These are 4h bars. Important to note that NOT all refiners are trading in tandem. MPC and TSO are down today, while HFC, PSX, and VLO are all up. Note TSO and HFC report their second quarter 2016 results 8/3.
NYSE:MPCShort
by nodiggity
HIGH VOL: KEEP WATCHING!!!Look guys, this is the same Fib retracement that has HELD since the Jan-Feb selloff. Do not take my word for it. Look at my previous predictions, load the new data, and see how much money was made. MPC has had a history of bucking the market. When SPX was down 2%, this was down 7%. When SPX was up 3%, this was up over 8.5%. This is a lower liquidity, higher volatility play. I am NEUTRAL on MPC. To be honest, I've put no money into for a long time. Money could have been made straddling the 2nd fib level, but the reaction to Brexit (not the market reaction to Brexit itself) has caused everybody to look at everything closer, and rightly so.) Here's what we know: MPC is range-bound in the 2nd fib level. We also know it's good for a 8% pop or drop in a one session. Is that within your risk tolerance?? It's not within mine. Conclusion: IF YOU DO NOT HAVE TO TRADE, DO NOT TRADE. I honestly would not look at this stock until after earnings (July 28th). That will give the market plenty of time to digest new capital inflows from stock buy-backs, and allow for a reaction that may be based on technicals vs. fundamentals. There is money to be made, but patience is a virtue. If you see something I don't?....Please share! I need to eat too...
NYSE:MPC
by nodiggity
1
Cash in: No hold weekend for meNo reason to hold anything over the weekend unless you have to. Something smelly about the markets. I can feel the SPY wanting to sell. MPC rallied up testing 37.00 fib level. It tested that level and it did not breach. The chart indicates overall bullish. It has/is building a nice $35 floor for itself. THE MODEL HAS NOT BEEN RE-DRAWN AND MPC IS TRADING PER THOSE FIB LEVELS SINCE MY FIRST MPC FIB POST. You can put a strangle on at 37.00 and 35.00 if you can afford to be that close to the money, but my money is better off elsewhere. Now, if it rallies to $37.80, that'd make a nice cup formation. MPC has history of cup-and-handle breakout (see older chart). Now, if you have followed my posts, you will have noticed me repeatedly saying that MPC has a history of bucking the SPY. It has. With that said, it's outside my own personal risk appetite. Have a good weekend!
NYSE:MPC
by nodiggity
1
Time to buy MPC? This is a simple overlay of MPC and OVX. They share an inverse relationship with the most recent cross at the first session of 2016. Since then, OVX has skyrocketed, and MPC tanked eventually finding some support at $29. Previous support is near the high teens, but those are early historical lows. Since the MPC $29 support, there appears to be a technical base for MPC to rise to $50, at the mid to lower end of analysts price targets for this stock. There is more upside to being long MPC than being short OVX. What I'm saying is that OVX need not cross with MPC for the refiner's stock to rise. What I'm saying is MPC is oversold, and OVX is one reason to go long this stock.
NYSE:MPCLong
by nodiggity
1
Stay Long MPCIf you went bullish on calls per my previous post, you are enjoying a nice pop today. My time horizon is longer so I am holding until $38.75 (the next fib level). The MA just crossed and I want that to marinate for a few sessions. You should be just playing with house money now if you bought the day or day after I posted. This is technicals-only trade devoid of any fundamentals if that had to be said for this website! The narrative is refiners have been oversold for the past couple weeks. The market has realized that now. I'm not paying attention to anything in action in CL or any news about Nigeria. That is all noise to me. The only thing I'm paying attention to is that MA cross and the two fib lines that define my stop/sell positions.
NYSE:MPCLong
by nodiggity
Buy MPC callsGet em while they're cheap! You might find cheaper premiums on HFC as they nose-dived yesterday, but MPC has stronger fundamentals IMO. And a reminder like always, MPC has a history of bucking the market the market: SPY. In regard to fundamentals, this is an oversold reaction to MPC and other refiners' posting losses for Q1 2016. We all knew the refining margins honeymoon would come to a close eventually. This is a response not in rising crude prices, but rather a response to the lack of rise of gasoline prices (the other leg that makes up the refining crack spread).
NYSE:MPCLong
by nodiggity
2