After six-week slide, I am buying MerckMerck is one of my favorite pharmaceutical companies. As far as I can tell, it a genuinely ethical and well-managed company with an above-average ESG rating. Merck has executed pretty consistently, with an average of 2% annual sales growth, 2.5% annual dividend growth, 3% annual earnings growth, and 4% annual free cash flow growth over the past several years.
Merck's valuation is quite attractive for a growing, large-cap company. I estimate its forward P/E at 10, forward P/S at 3.4, and PEG under 5. Merck's dividend yield is a juicy 3.76%, and they should have no problem sustaining that given their free cash flow growth. I estimate that Merck has about 16% upside to its median price multiple of the last four years.
Market sentiment is quite bullish on Merck. The average analyst summary score is a "buy" at 6.4/10. Merck has about 30% upside to its average analyst price target. Open interest from option traders is in highly bullish territory, with a put-call ratio of 0.56.
News lately has been a bit negative for Merck. Today they voluntarily withdrew their drug Keytruda for one of its (many) indications because it didn't meet FDA post-marketing requirements. That's not great, but it won't be devastating to Keytruda revenues. Merck's proposed purchase of Pandion Therapeutics is being investigated for procedural problems, which also isn't great. Plus, the FDA delayed approval of Merck's application for emergency approval for its Covid-19 drug until it produces more data.
On the other hand, Merck just submitted a New Drug Application for gefapixant and cut a billion-dollar commercialization deal for Xevinapant. Both those things are positives for the company. Plus, Merck got some positive attention recently due to a large purchase of its stock by Warren Buffett's investment fund.
In technical terms, Merck obviously has been in a downtrend, but it's approaching trend line support. I'm looking at buy tomorrow in the $71.50-71.75 range if Merck continues to dip toward support.
