Nordex's YoY losses up 133% and Debt/Equity ratio up 54%FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Current liabilities increased 47% up to €3.4bn in 2022 from €2.3bn in 2021. Non-current liabilities decreased 37%.
Debt to Equity ratio (2022) = 4.42x
Debt to Equity ratio (2021) = 2.87x
Losses YoY increased 133% to €522 million. EBITDA turned negative in 2022 to -€244 million from €52,672 million in 2021.
Almost all Guidance provided in March 2022 was exceeded downwards except for Sales Guidance.
Positive side: Sales increased 4.58%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Since April 6, the company has entered into a downward trend that in Oct 2022 attempted to turn around. However, the banking crisis and inflation fears persist in a way that Nordex's stock performance graph experienced the appearance of a Bearish Bat pattern whose prophecy together with its recently issued FY 2022 results could materialise in the following days and weeks to come.
1NDX trade ideas
Nordex: Profit Warning from May 2022 underestimated actual costsRECAP: Back in May 25, 2022, Nordex issued a profit warning and its stock was down -17.05%. The new estimates where:
FY2022 PROFIT WARNING ESTIMATES FROM MAY 2022 (Source: Nordex's IR website section):
– FY2022 Consolidated sales: EUR 5.2 to 5.7 billion
– FY2022 EBITDA-margin: minus 4 to 0 percent, including all one-off effects
- Capital expenditure: EUR 180 million
- Working capital ratio: below -7%
In March 31st, 2023 investors got to know the actual figures of the company.
FY2022 ACTUALS (Source: Nordex's IR website section):
– FY2022 Consolidated sales: EUR 5.6936 billion
– FY2022 EBITDA-margin: -4.3%
- Capital expenditure: EUR 204.8 million
- Working capital ratio: -10.2%
Capital expenditure and staff costs were up 21.4% and 18.5%, respectively.
The company suffers from delays in project intakes.
Overall, I reckon Consolidated sales were in the upper boundary of the profit warning but costs increased dramatically, probably due to inflation and related supply-chain issues that are still not fully corrected from China today, in 2023.
NDX1 NORDEX Green Energy Trade Idea open for feedbackThis is a "green" energy company XETR:NDX1 that is supposed to pop soon with the coming green political party movement in Germany. The TA tells me that it will plummet before it climbs or pops. Can someone give me their take on this? Seems to me that I have to short it before I can go long on this and that might take months/years to do.
Does anyone see this as a long play or is my view correct? FYI Germany has elections in September and the green party is trending.
Thanks in advance,
Buenavista
Trading Idea - #NORDEX BUY!
ENTRY: 20.50 EUR
TARGET: 26.66 EUR (30% profit)
STOP: 17.00 EUR
Nordex is a Germany-based holding company that develops, produces and sells wind power parks worldwide.
The company offers the Nordex N90 / 2500, N100 / 2500 and N117 / 2400 wind turbines under the Nordex brand.
1.) Nordex receives another major order from Brazil
2.) There is too much pessimism on the stocks of European wind turbine manufacturers about inflation fears, the corona pandemic and logistical challenges. However, Nordex is well equipped to cope with the rise in raw material costs.
3.) With Nordex shares, the ratio of opportunities to risks is very favorable.
4.) 17.00 EUR is a strong support for the current situation!
Negative short term outlook confirmed by GSGThe negative short term outlook was recently confirmed by GSG with target price: 5.00 EUR. Target price supported by fundamentals i.e. decreasing sales, margins etc. In addition, Nordex is undergoing a reorganisation which will cause additional costs (drop of 10% FTE) etc. Uncertainty about the subsidizing of renewable energies will put a lot of pressure on Nordex and it´s financials.
My trading set-up.
TP 1: 8.25
TP 2: 7.50
TP 3: 7.00
SL: 10.50
This is just my personal opinion and not an advise.