PG - Upside down C&H (WEEKLY)Wow. That is one pissed off stock. On the weekly chart, RSI is falling with increasing magnitude and MACD/signal lines are diverging. Not the sort of signal you want to see when a stock is getting ready to reverse.
Look at that long slow decline on RSI & MACD -- clear divergence well before it hit ATH's. Someone who spotted that early in this formation has been sitting very comfortable in a very strong short. On Friday (Feb-12), price action bulldozed thru the 50 MA (eek!), and although there was a little uptick in buying the prior day, sellers remained in complete control on Friday (double eek!).
When prices fell to ~$100 in March, buyers rushed in to gobble up shares until about the mid teens, and they did so with way above average volume (50 million). Not even 30 million shares traded at the 50 MA. We're not yet at the demand zone. I wasn't surprised to see short volume ratio popped up to 7% (still very low) as of Friday night.
It's looking like we're forming an upside down C & H. Our price target should be at about $116 (looking like we would hit this target just before the next dividend). Just watch volume and see if the big dogs swoop in to buy. They may be interested in holding out until price action meanders down to the 200 period moving average on the weekly. If this stock is going to re-enter an accumulation phase, price action needs to fall significantly to shake out all the sellers. Given that, a price target of $105 is reasonable. I'm not sold on the 15-month long uptrend. My eyes immediately go to the 20-year trendline that this stock obediently returns to from time to time. It's long overdo.
Worth noting that this purported upside down C&H is also within a much larger head & shoulder formation. Open up the weekly going back to May-2018. Keep an eye on that for a right-shoulder formation.
