PLUG - failed breakout vs. impending short squeeze?PLUG with 80% volume shorted today with a bearish candle on the daily..
The question is whether this was a failed break out w/ an inverted H&S or a set up for a short squeeze into earnings?
4.71 resistance but appears to have found support at 4.31 near end of day trading.
Expect that if 4.29 can hold, holding CALLS into earnings seem like an attractive idea. Below that level likely means we re-test the trend line.
1PLUG trade ideas
Plug Power, Inc on trend Plug Power, Inc. provides alternative energy technology, which focuses on the design, development, commercialization, and manufacture of hydrogen and fuel cell systems used primarily for the material handling and stationary power markets. Its fuel cell system solution is designed to replace lead-acid batteries in electric material handling vehicles and industrial trucks for some distribution and manufacturing businesses. The company was founded by George C. McNamee and Larry G. Garberding on June 27, 1997 and is headquartered in Latham, NY.
$172 Million Contract with "Fortune 100" unnamed companyHighly likely that this customer is amazon.
If it is. THIS IS HUGE! And it is not yet priced into their earnings estimates so this could greatly boost earnings growth numbers in their next report.
They issued shares which is why the recent slump
YET EVEN WITH SHARE DILUTION... we are seeing a sharp increase in price showing that even though it is less scarce, shares are EVEN MORE in demand. I like this speculative bet
Short $PLUG - Correction Anticipation$PLUG is highly volatile and had a huge "buy the news event" when it announced a $172m contract over 2 yrs by an unnamed buyer. This is undoubtedly good for $PLUG over the long term, but an +18% move yesterday is optimistic at best. Shorting for a 5-8% profit exit.
Plug to Find Resistance at $3.80 in 2024 (50% Chance)PLUG is a risky investment for 2020, as I am not certain that it will hold its price or increase.
CNN Business thinks the following for the next 12 months:
"The 8 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Plug Power Inc have a median target of 4.00, with a high estimate of 6.00 and a low estimate of 2.75. The median estimate represents a +29.45% increase from the last price of 3.09."
Given Motley's analysis however www.fool.com , it is indicated that PLUG is just a cash hungry company that's burning through it faster than it can make it for the last 2 decades. On the other hand, simplywallst (site) sees the fair value as around $8. Even with that being said, the analysis from SimplyWallSt indicates that the company will continue to be unprofitable in the next 3 years.
Motley advises that TELL is a better stock option in hydrogen fuel cells than PLUG. I have not researched TELL as I am invested into PLUG for the past few days and don't have interest at the moment to trade into TELL and out of PLUG. The next time I invest, I will evaluate TELL and determine if I should diversify into them and will provide an analysis if that occurs.
However, what I will leave you with is this on the PLUG side. The average board member has been serving with them for 9.2 years. The average age of the board members is 62 years old. In the last 3 months, 2 insiders bought 112,286 shares of PLUG. On the TELL side we see that the CEO has been with them for under 3 years, and 1 insider has purchased 42,320 shares in the last 3 months (roughly the same monetary amount as on the PLUG side).
When looking at the stewardship and profitability of TELL vs PLUG, what stands out most is the following: "TELL is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -27.6% per year."
TELL forecasted future growth from nearly a dozen analysts = -16.9% in the next year.
PLUG forecasted future growth from half a dozen analysts = 56.5% in the next year.
Your choice. I made mine when it comes to hydrogen cell stocks and am not backing out any time soon.