breakout iminent with NVDA volatile week 700With RSI at 46, stochastics over extended on the daily, but could push towards the next area of resistance and that is 700
1SMCI trade ideas
SMCI - Bull move comingLike with other semiconductors, SMCI looks ripe for 5th wave move. Expecting this to be steep and parabolic.
Kindly note, this is not a financial advise. Trade with proper risk managament.
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$SMCI cup and handle developing on dailyNASDAQ:SMCI daily cup and handle developing on the daily chart. We're currently in the "flag" part. If broken, we should test the gap entry ~637. A break into the gap and a +40pt move to 660 and the 200 daily moving average at 680 is likely.
NASDAQ:NVDA earnings next week should affect this idea.
SMCI at entryChips are looking strong as the technology is looking bullish if we hold above the daily buy zone
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Awaiting the Final Leg DownWe are considering a bullish scenario for SMCI, but it's not time to act just yet. We continue to believe that we are still in Wave (2) and that one more leg down is needed before we can see a surge higher, potentially breaching the all-time high at $1,229. Although the stock has already retraced more than 60% since reaching this ATH, we think there's still room for a bit more downside.
We believe we are in Wave C of the ABC corrective movement, and typically, this Wave C contains a five-wave structure (in this case, moving downward). This five-wave structure hasn't fully played out yet, as you can clearly see. Even though a lot of longs have been opened at $512, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, we believe this is just Wave ((iii)). We're not looking to short this stock but are instead waiting to see if our analysis holds true so we can go long once we have more clarity on the ending of Wave ((iv)). This will help us better determine the end of the overarching Wave (2).
Run clearway to 700Crossover MACD, reset indicators finding ways to grow, and markets bullish sentiment could continue to move northwards.
SMCI: ReevaluatingI'm going through my previous posts and reevaluating my wave counts now that SPY is showing to be out of an ABC correction. I am changing my thesis on SMCI to have nearly completed Wave 4 up and we can expect a final Wave 5 down.
Wave 5 PT 461-380
SMCI Short Term Target IndicatedSMCI Short Term Target Indicated. This analysis is for informational purposes only.
SMCI rebounding on its 2-year Support Zone. $2000 next stop.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is on its strongest 1W green candle since May 22 2023, recovering the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was broken last week amidst the general market panic on a potential economic slowdown.
This rebound happens to take place just inside the 2-year Higher Lows Zone that started back in July 2022. The ultimate Support, the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) is exactly on that Zone's bottom and as long as it holds, we will stay bullish on SMCI long-term. Even the 1W RSI marginally broke below its 2-year Support Zone, but immediately recovered it.
As a result, we expect the new Bullish Leg (green Channel Up) to start. Every single one of the previous Legs of this 2-year pattern has been higher than the previous, so since the last rally completed a +344.40% rise, we expect at least a repeat of this. Our long-term Target is $2000.
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I just entered too late,but it is a valid entry Bull triangule broke up, I just enter in a buy position, to swing trade
SMCI: Call Buying Into Wave 2 of Larger 3SMCI has sold off aggressively in the last few weeks and I see that Wave 1 of larger 3 is complete. I'm expecting a hard wave 2 bounce next week to 627, then reject before filling the gap at 667. At that point I will be buying PUTS.
PT1 627 PT2 667
SMCI.....Price target achieved!Hello Traders,
on February 24th I wrote this analyzes for SMCI→
www.tradingview.com
The price target I called out, more than 5 months ago, was achieved and undercut the last days!
Yesterday's closing price was @ $ 492.70, the pre-market today suggest price levels @ $480.-!
If the move from $1229.- indeed has been a waves w-x-y, the price target for a wave c of y of (4) is much steeper than today's levels.
Contrary to the w-x-y count, there could be a chance for waves a-b-c. In this case, the final price target for a wave c of (4) is short @ hand!?
Keep in mind. A wave w-x-y is always an "a-b- (1-2-3-4-5) →c"!
We will follow the stock and track it in the coming days ahead! Probably a great chance is waiting for the bulls.
Have a great week.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as needed.
Trading based on this analysis is at your own risk.
Penny Stocks and the “Pump and Dump” Pattern Penny Stocks and the “Pump and Dump” Pattern
📚 Penny stocks are shares that trade at a very low price, generally below $5 per share.
📖 These stocks belong to companies with a small market capitalization, meaning the total value of all their shares in the market is relatively small.
📊 The “Pump and Dump” is a common pattern in the penny stock market where stock prices rise rapidly and then fall. This pattern develops in 7 steps:
1-Pre-Pump or Promotion: The stock begins to be heavily promoted.
2-Ramp: The stock price starts to rise.
3-Supernova: The price reaches its peak.
4-Cliff Dive: After the peak, promoters and early investors begin to sell their shares.
5-Dip: The stock falls significantly.
6-The Dead Pump Bounce: After the initial drop, there may be a small bounce in the price.
7-The Long Kiss Goodnight: Finally, the stock stabilizes at a low level.
Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) Plummet 20% on Weak Earnings ReportSuper Micro Computer (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ), once a darling of the AI investment world, is experiencing a dramatic downturn. The company's stock plummeted after a disappointing earnings report revealed a significant margin squeeze, casting a shadow over its previously rosy outlook.
The AI gold rush had propelled Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) to new heights, with its shares more than doubling in 2024. Investors were betting big on the company's ability to capitalize on the soaring demand for AI servers. However, the recent decline has raised serious questions about the company's long-term prospects.
A Perfect Storm
SMCI's troubles stem from a confluence of factors. Firstly, the rapid shift to more expensive AI chips has eroded profit margins. The company's attempt to lower prices to compete with rivals like Dell and HP has exacerbated the issue. Secondly, supply chain challenges and component shortages have added to the cost pressures.
While the company maintains an optimistic long-term outlook, the immediate future appears bleak. Analysts warn that the stock's lofty valuation, relative to peers like Dell, makes it particularly vulnerable to market volatility.
Technical Analysis: A Bearish Outlook
SMCI's stock price has broken down from a descending triangle pattern, a bearish technical indicator. The stock is now trading below its crucial 200-day moving average, signaling a potential long-term trend reversal.
Investors will be closely watching key support levels at:
$496: Potential buying interest could emerge around this level, which would fill a gap from January’s impulsive move higher.
$357: Another support level where the stock may find a horizontal line connecting past swing highs.
$260: A significant correction could lead to support around this trendline, linking June 2023 highs with levels from August to December 2023.
What's Next for Super Micro?
The AI market remains undeniably promising, and SMCI's position as a key player in the industry cannot be ignored. However, the company must address its margin issues and navigate the challenges of the evolving AI landscape to regain investor confidence.
As the dust settles from the earnings report, investors will be scrutinizing SMCI's actions to mitigate the margin squeeze and its ability to maintain its competitive edge. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but the company's long-term success hinges on its ability to adapt and overcome these hurdles.
Will Super Micro be able to rebound from this setback, or is this just the beginning of a more prolonged decline?
SMCI in at $516, $658 targetPrice at bottom channel
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
TTM Squeeze momentum is down, stretched
Currently in a corrective wave I have smci in a corrective wave c in a wave 3 of 5 wave impulse to the downside price targets
450-110 just depends on how this ai bubble pops.
not financial advise.
Earnings Watch: August 6th Airbnb (ABNB 🏠)
The travel accommodation giant is expected to report an EPS of 0.91 and revenue of 2.73B. With a solid beat rate of 85%, can Airbnb surpass expectations? Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.98 and revenue of 2.48B.
Fortinet (FTNT 🔒)
Fortinet is projected to deliver an EPS of 0.41 and revenue of 1.40B. Holding a beat rate of 71%, investors are keen to see if they can maintain their streak. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.38 and revenue of 1.29B.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI 💻)
The company is set to announce an EPS of 8.10 and revenue of 5.31B. With a beat rate of 72%, will SMCI impress the market? Last year, they delivered an EPS of 3.51 and revenue of 2.18B.
Coupang (CPNG 📦)
Expected to post an EPS of -0.01 and revenue of 7.37B, Coupang has a mixed outlook. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.08 and revenue of 5.53B.
Sunrun (RUN ☀️)
The solar company is anticipated to report an EPS of -0.33 and revenue of 515.16M. With a beat rate of 50%, will Sunrun manage to impress the market? Last year, they delivered an EPS of 0.25 and revenue of 590.19M.
Redfin (RDFN 🏠)
Redfin is expected to deliver an EPS of -0.26 and revenue of 291.58M. Last year, they reported an EPS of -0.25 and revenue of 275.55M.
Shopify (SHOP 🛒)
The e-commerce platform is expected to report an EPS of 0.20 and revenue of 2.01B. With a beat rate of 58%, can Shopify exceed expectations? Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.14 and revenue of 1.69B.
Disney (DIS 🎥)
The entertainment giant is set to announce an EPS of 1.20 and revenue of 23.11B. Holding a beat rate of 77%, will Disney continue to enchant the market? Last year, they reported an EPS of 1.03 and revenue of 22.33B.
Lyft (LYFT 🚗)
Expected to post an EPS of 0.19 and revenue of 1.38B, Lyft has a beat rate of 80%. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.16 and revenue of 1.02B.
CVS Health (CVS 💊)
CVS is projected to deliver an EPS of 1.73 and revenue of 91.51B. With a beat rate of 88%, investors are keen to see if they can maintain their streak. Last year, they reported an EPS of 2.20 and revenue of 85.27B.
Monster Beverage (MNST 🥤)
The beverage company is expected to report an EPS of 0.45 and revenue of 2.01B. With a beat rate of 42%, will Monster impress the market? Last year, they delivered an EPS of 0.39 and revenue of 1.87B.
Lumen Technologies (LUMN 📡)
The telecom company is anticipated to report an EPS of -0.06 and revenue of 3.24B. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.10 and revenue of 3.66B.
🔍 As these giants reveal their financial health, it's not just about the numbers but also the story they tell about the consumer market and economic trends. Keep your portfolios ready for any surprises!
#EarningsSeason #StockMarket #InvestmentInsights
8/6/24 - $smci - Punting long print @ $6008/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SMCI
Punting long print @ $600
- liquidity conditions generally look favorable for a day (maybe more?) but enough to punt on this beaten up sector on a name growing high 30's CAGR+ and trading 25x PE next year
- think the "surprise" that there's a lot more demand for full stack data center will drive more upside toward the $800 level (fair value, but that's what was hard for me to own back in april).
- will be volatile. took a 50 bps punt (typically wb 25 bps on EPS like this) mainly bc of the sell off y day leaving more room for upside in my estimation than downside risk.
- as always. size accordingly.
- curious if anyone has nuanced POV.
V
SMCI getting ready to give up 2024 gainsSMCI getting ready to give up 2024 gains as the recession fear grows. On a bigger picture this could signal an upcoming selloff in the AI sector as a whole since NVDA and SMCI were the two biggest beneficiaries of the recent AI boom. This analysis is for informational purposes only.
507 BB this is earnings seasonCrossover 100/200 is a significant concern. Indicators are beyond a retest, but one session can change that if, for any reason, this can go lower as it's shown us the 500 sides now, I believe 584, before the bounce to 600s. I would be inclined to take a position in the 5s as long as the earnings and the future of this organization don't slap me too hard across the face. I still believe this belongs in the 1000s.
SMCI Short Trade SetupSMCI broke below a longer term bear flag today, but it's hard to say if the trade works or not yet. However, semis have been getting hammered and this is a longer term pattern so I like the odds. I took some puts when it tested the trendline, target is the bottom end where the trend started around $675.
All set for bounce towards 900?This may be the end of selling for this stock (OR CLOSE) and nvda(94 support). It must stay above 600. Sitting right at support price now. All the best.
