fakeout or breakout?I'm leaning toward fakeout, just because I like to see stocks crash, but this is generally the point at which we find out one or the other.
1SMCI trade ideas
SMCI Short IdeaSMCI has been on a big run since AVGO announced their stock split. It has rallied back up to resist near $928. So far it has failed and I'd expect more downside, but this could definitely be a fakeout and go on to test the 1022 area. Depends on NQ and other semis along with VX.
SMCI SupportOur liquidity sweep indicator gave a bullish signal on SMCI this morning. Daily support was swept and reclaimed, and lower time frame market structure has started to shift bullish here.
Super Gains with Super Micro Computer Through the End of OctoberSuper Micro Computer (SMCI) is a good candidate to watch.
When the RSI moves above the moving average, a significant upward movement is likely.
Currently, the stock may still be in a consolidation phase, which could end by the end of August.
When the Bollinger Bands move closer together, a breakout is imminent.
The stock has been trending primarily in one direction: upward.
Looking back, what did you miss out on ?Recent Developments: Super Micro has introduced several new products and initiatives that have fueled its stock performance. Notably, the company launched a ready-to-deploy liquid-cooled AI data center, optimized for NVIDIA Corp AI Enterprise software. This innovation is designed to accelerate generative AI adoption across various industries, providing significant cost savings and enhanced performance.
SMCI - Super Micro Computer Inc - 50% move to all-time high?SMCI is approx a 50% gain away from all-time highs. Do you think the chip industry will rally again? How long do you think it will take to gain momentum? Price is currently hovering near the 100 EMA. This could be a good place for a bounce. Add SMCI to your watchlist?
smci seems like a hot ticketA very volatile stock that has grown alongside NVDA and other AI platforms, MACD crossed over to positive territory and still has room to run. I'm bullish that 900+ indicators aren't maxed out!
SMCI trendline retest bounce go LongSMCI broke above the trendline, then retracted back to re-test the trendline and this time it bounced off of the trendline, rejecting the trend continuation and going into reversal. Go Long.
SMCI Short Term Bull with retest of 760 possibleSMCI's price movement today has been overdone. I foresee another pull, but the overall semi-story with NVDA out of water is still good. Without any material macro event, it will retest its all-time highs. However, due to the turning tide in favor of DELL and other integrators gaining traction, it will eventually fall hard.
In Simple words, I see a 760 Retest before hitting an all-time high of 1230 but eventually falling back to 600. Hence, this is a nice trade idea only for whoever wants to ride a huge beta in the Options trade.
SMCI UpdateUpdate to the idea shared a couple days ago. Our liquidity indicator was calling for longs on SMCI and we are now getting that play-out as its breaking above 800.
What will the end of the rally look like.The SMCI gives us a good indication of what the end of the rally looks like.
The SMCI has gained as much as 66% over the three-week period, and the difference between the weekly highs and lows has been very, very large.
Since then, the stock has tumbled more than -45%.
The stock has since rebounded slightly like a rubber band, but has returned to a downward trend.
This is typical of the lead stocks coming to the end of the rally.
SMCI's earnings are amazing.
Sales growth is 200% and EPS growth is 368%.
But what's wrong with the stock price?
This tells us that a lot of stocks are coming to an end regardless of their earnings.
That's because many professional investors sell their shares before earnings get worse.
But this is not to say the end of SMCI.
The SMCI may be able to build up enough energy over a long period of time, and then regain its former glory. I don't know when that would be.
Upcoming soonSuper Micro should follow Nvidia. Price is bouncing off the uptrend line support. I think is going to start to consolidate within the triangle to finally break up. I just bought some, I'll keep adding at every pull back. It might take a few more weeks. SL triggers if a weekly candle breaks down and closes below the lower vortex.
SMCI Short TradeI took a short on SMCI today. I had posted a bullish and bearish idea for it earlier in the week. Neither of those have triggered yet. I took this trade because it failed at previous lows and a trendline shown here. My target would be either the most recent lows we made or the trendline support slightly below that. It can still breakout to the upside here as well, wouldn't want to be short if it takes out the trendline it failed at today.
SMCI Long Idea I think SMCI could easily go either way this week depending what NQ and NVDA do. So here's a follow up long idea to my previous short idea. If the market is bullish this could be a great long opportunity if it goes.back to test the trendline it broke out of. This area also has some previous lows for added confirmation. I expect good movement out of SMCI this week either way.
SMCI Short IdeaGiven the strength of NVDA and other semis, it may not be the best idea to try and short into that much strength, but this could prove to be a great short opportunity if NQ falls off.
SMCI has broken a shorter term uptrend to the downside, so I'll be looking for short entries on a retest. There's actually two different trendlines it could hit at the same time which would be the ideal scenario.
SMCI: Strong accumulation. Buy it while you can.Super Micro Computer is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 53.442, MACD = 90.250, ADX = 30.355) and the reason is that below the 1W MA50 it is expanding the new Cycle's accumulation phase. Every Cycle experienced this accumulation under the 1W MA50, sometimes shorter others longer. Technically, on a two year basis, every time it crossed under the 1W MA50 and consolidated, the stock was a buy opportunity.
The trigger to buy is given on the S1 level (50.60) of the 1W RSI. The last two Cycles grew by at least +400% from the first low that followed the crossing under the 1W MA50. Consequently we turn long on SMCI, aiming for another +400% rise (TP = 3,300).
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Last SMCI update for a while.We LOST the orange EMA as support and now it will act as resistance in the short term. It will be an important key indicator if we are planning to flip the trend and go bullish. BUT this is a BEARISH signal as of now....
I will continue to hold swing puts on this and NVIDIA as I can smell weakness and war regarding Taiwan.
It's time to take offIt is expected that the stock will head to its previous targets after it is well accumulated, and the eye is on the liquidity of the stock
Super positive view of SMCIOn the last Friday, SMCI stock showed clear ABC pattern with decreasing near by 0.618.
However, there were not strong bound with weak buying. So, it is fifty fifty.
It could be start of big 3 wave or just stopping by the support line.
In addition, it depends on Nvidia stock movement.
SMCICalls over 900 can work tomorrow.
Semiconductor stocks can move higher with NVDA.
Trade Idea: 1000C 5/24
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SMCI OutlookSMCI has a really solid bullish Heikin Ashi setup on the monthly.
The sell it saw set it up pretty well.
Its looking like it should technically break its ATH in the coming months.
Not a short term idea.
Safe trades!
