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1SMCI trade ideas

TRYING NOT TO CHASE TOO MUCH Supermicro did excellently nice after hours, however, it also touched a particular pivot point so I think that tomorrow we should be able to find the CI at about 53 to 52 or 54 whatever it is a little lower because this was really a massive gap up and the market maker should not be so happy about this. They may need to bring everything down to be able to reengage all the derivatives that work off this stock. This is all theoretical. It doesn't need to happen, but in general when you finish her, a wedge it follows a predetermined pattern that is quite reliable in my opinion.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by imcnf5c4ff
Breaking down the stage of SMCI pop (with real time forecasts). SMCI has now completed all the general stages of the Minsky bubble. It made the rally, it made the top, it made the capitulation and then it made the mean reversion. Big win for the efficacy of the Minsky model. Let's now run through the stages as they happened. Because after the fact, it's easy. Everyone sees it. To benefit from a bull market you need to know how to take profit at the right time - let's review the clues we had. SMCI had its "New Paradigm" moment in mid 2024. Original full post below. At that point we had all the classic tells of a top forming. But if you trade market tops a lot, you know there's can be a some gaming going on before it actually ends. Most often what we see is there being a bluff sell off and then a spike of the high. This provide a lot of liquidity for Mr Big to sell into Mr Little because My Little is either hitting stops above the high or FOMOing into the "New breakout" because they seen the previous versions pop 20 - 50% and they're not about to miss this one!!! Getting the general zone on this one was easy. The market essentially topped on the 4.23. If we discount the spike outs. And I've written super in depth posts about how most major inflection points in markets come from 4.23's. Since my time writing these posts/models for 4.23 reversals I've also dug into testing my fib based ideas against historic markets via different AI tools and actually found AI when given the test criteria will also define 4.23's as being related to speculative bubbles. Like I said above, usually we fake crash, spike out and then real crash. So after we hit the first section of the move we went long into the low. Because even in a stronger drop we typically see the 76 bull trap here. And then in classic form, we topped on the butterfly. Absolutely textbook. ==== I'll now leave you with a series of NVDA charts. 4.23: Butterfly: And all of this is happening inside the zone I flagged up as the trend completion area for NVDA when it was trading under 500. === What's the difference between SMCI and NVDA? Maybe about 6 months.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by holeyprofit
SMCI - RETRACED from $67 to $50 - that is good enough 4 me.the retracement meets all criteria, time to go long. If SmCi delivers on its projections of $40 Billion in revenue by 2026, that means that in 1 year the shares trade for $197 each. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has recently experienced a significant pullback, retracing 20% from $67 to $50, which presents an attractive entry point for long positions. This correction offers a compelling opportunity to invest in a company with strong fundamentals and growth potential. The stock's valuation metrics are particularly appealing: Low P/E ratio: SMCI's price-to-earnings ratio is significantly lower than the peer average, indicating the stock is undervalued compared to its competitors. Attractive P/S ratio: With an enterprise value/revenue that is relatively low, SMCI appears undervalued relative to its sales performance. Growth potential: The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, showcasing its strong market position. Analyst optimism: Recent analyst actions reflect confidence in the company's prospects. Industry leadership: SMCI has emerged as a prominent player in the technology hardware industry. Given these factors, SMCI appears undervalued and poised for potential upside. The recent pullback provides an opportune moment to establish or increase long positions in this promising tech stock.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by imcnf5c4ff
SMCI - Eyeing this for a potential reloadBEWARE - Market-wide we're seeing a potential institutional "rugpull" sort of situation after plenty of ATH's made last week. Not predicting the market's "top" but I am seeing a common theme on many charts that correlate to the S&P recent ATH and subsequent dump (especially considering it wasn't provoked by any specific news). Also, SMCI specific, keep in mind their deadline approaching to submit the required documents to avoid de-listing. Goes without saying that this would have a huge effect on the stock if somehow they failed to submit. Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:SMCI
by ReigningTrades
SMCI - Play of the year!Correction - I made the last video on this SMCI opportunity two months ago in mid-December stating "Golden opportunity right in front of us?". And I was just thinking - is this too obvious? Clearly it was and I'm glad I took advantage. This was the most educated gamble of all time! Was worth every penny that could have been lost. From here, I expect similar movement after sufficient liquidity is built in a controlled manner. Not rushing into another position here until I see certain levels and algorithms in play - But the breakout of our HTF selling channel is a great start and now would love to see ourselves build controlled liquidity prior to another breakout! Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by ReigningTrades
3
SMCI. Huge Levels approaching. SMCI is approaching some major levels. All my levels are fib pulls from the yearly and monthly swings. They have been wildly accurate. I have been long since $26 and have fully exited my long today. We have major confluence from multiple fib pulls at the $76 level. This is a major profit target for longs. This is also a huge short opportunity. I expect SMCI to either dump of $76 or gain and possibly reach $88. I dont see new all time highs in the near future. I believe we will dump down past the $52 level that we have already held on the daily when we gapped up the other day. Let me know if you have questions.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by JR_Stocks
5
SMCI BONANZA HOW SUPERMICRO GOES BANANA-STANDING AGAINThe Great Banana Republic of Bananadom 🍌 In a world where sunshine dripped like honey and the very air smelled of sweet ripeness, lay the Great Banana Republic of Bananadom. Here, houses were carved from colossal banana peels, their smooth yellow surfaces gleaming. The roads? Paved with dried banana chips, providing a satisfying crunch with every step. The citizens, known as Bananadomites, were a cheerful bunch, their skin naturally tinted a warm yellow. They wore clothes woven from banana fiber, adorned with intricate patterns of banana leaves and blossoms. 🍌 Our protagonist was Bananabelle, a spirited Bananadomite with a crown of woven banana leaves atop her head. Bananabelle wasn't just any Bananadomite ; she was the Royal Banana Baker, famed throughout the republic for her innovative banana-based delicacies. From banana bread that sang sweet melodies when sliced to banana smoothies that granted temporary flight, her creations were legendary. 🍌 Life in Bananadom was idyllic, a continuous cycle of harvesting, baking, and celebrating the glorious banana. But one day, a shadow fell upon this sunny paradise. The Great Banana Tree, the source of all bananas in Bananadom, began to wither. Its leaves drooped, its fruit shriveled, and the air lost its sweet fragrance. Panic gripped the republic. Without the Great Banana Tree, Bananadom would cease to exist. 🍌 Bananabelle, known for her courage and ingenuity, stepped forward. She proposed a daring quest: to venture beyond Bananadom, into the uncharted lands rumored to exist beyond the seemingly endless banana plantations that surrounded their republic. Legend spoke of a mystical Banana Oasis, a hidden paradise where the first banana seed sprouted, and where the secret to eternal banana growth resided. 🍌 Gathering a team of brave Bananadomites– a strong banana farmer named Bananabert, a wise old banana leaf weaver named Nana, and a nimble banana monkey named Chip – Bananabelle set off. Their journey was fraught with peril. They navigated through jungles of giant banana slugs, crossed rivers of banana pudding, and outsmarted grumpy gorillas guarding banana hoards. 🍌 Along the way, Nana shared ancient Bananadomite lore, revealing that the Great Banana Tree's decline was linked to a growing apathy among the Bananadomites. They had become complacent, taking the banana’s bounty for granted and forgetting the importance of gratitude and respect for nature. 🍌 Finally, after weeks of travel, they reached the Banana Oasis. It was a sight to behold: a lush valley teeming with every variety of banana imaginable. At its heart stood a shimmering waterfall of banana nectar, nourishing a single, glowing banana seed. 🍌 As Bananabelle approached the seed, a voice echoed through the valley. It was the spirit of the Great Banana Tree, reminding her of the importance of cherishing their blessings. Bananabelle, humbled, vowed to reignite the spirit of gratitude and respect in Bananadomite. She carefully collected a vial of the banana nectar and, with a renewed sense of purpose, led her team back home. 🍌 Upon their return, Bananabelle poured the nectar onto the roots of the Great Banana Tree. Slowly, miraculously, the tree began to revive. Its leaves unfurled, its fruit plumped, and the air filled with its sweet fragrance once more. The Bananadomites rejoiced, their hearts filled with gratitude. Bananabelle's bravery and wisdom had saved their republic. From that day on, the people of Bananadom celebrated the Banana Oasis Quest, a reminder to always cherish the gifts of nature and the power of community. And Bananabelle? She continued to bake her legendary banana treats, each one a testament to the enduring spirit of the Great Banana Republic of Bananadomite. 🍌🍌🍌 What's a Banana-tastic adventure 🍌🍌🍌
NASDAQ:SMCI
by PandorraResearch
SMCI’s Game-Changing Move: Could This Be a 500% Opportunity? Bullish Analysis for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) 1. Valuation Metrics P/S Ratio: Previously 7.46, now just 1.43, showcasing significant undervaluation compared to historical levels. P/E Ratio: Previously 90, now 16.67, making the stock much more attractive to value-focused investors. Fair Value Estimate: According to Simply Wall Street , the fair value per share is estimated at $439.38 , suggesting substantial upside from the current price levels. 2. Strong Financial Metrics Current Market Cap: $18.87 billion. Revenue: This year's revenue is $14.94 billion, and 2025 revenue is expected to exceed $23 billion, surpassing the current market cap—a promising signal of growth potential. Financial Health: SMCI can cover all its debt twice over , with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40 , which sits comfortably in the ideal range of 0.30–0.60. 3. Growth Drivers New Manufacturing Facility: A facility in Malaysia is expected to become operational in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, enabling SMCI to scale up its AI server production. Liquid Cooling Expertise: SMCI specializes in liquid cooling technology , critical for the new generation of powerful chips and data centers, including Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs , which are experiencing record demand as Nvidia ramps up production. 4. Technical and Price Action Support Levels: SMCI has established strong support at $30. Trend Reversal: The stock has broken the structure of its downtrend and is now showing clear signs of heading to the upside, further reinforcing bullish momentum. Resistance Levels: Potential price targets based on resistance areas: Target 1: $50 (52.4% increase). Target 2: $70 (113.4% increase). Target 3: $100 (204.8% increase). Target 4: $120 (265.8% increase). Long-term Target: $200+ (509.75% increase). 5. AI Market Leadership SMCI’s continued focus on AI servers positions it as a key beneficiary in the rapidly growing AI-driven computing market. Conclusion With its attractive valuation, robust financial health, strategic expansion plans, and leadership in liquid cooling and AI servers, SMCI is well-positioned for substantial growth. The recent trend reversal adds technical confirmation to the fundamental bullish case, making current price levels a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the AI and data center markets.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by ValchevFinance
The Reactive on SMCI has completed The stock is ready for a massive thrust UP to $129 or more.... Why is this. Well SMCI filed the 8K Report on December 2nd. There are rumores the 10k and 10q maybe ready. Lastly, business for SMCI is super strong. With Europe starting to negotiate large investments in AI, Sovereign AI, this means AI by country. Elon Musk has been speaking about AI data Centers and he did explain that these centers would be ultimately built in every city and town of the world. (subject to population size). He esplained that this would be a service similar to a utility, swage, electricity and AI. We have a very long way to go..... with SMCI
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by imcnf5c4ff
SMCI WILL FORM WELL ABOVE $500 The concept of "Sovereign AI" and SMCI building supercomputers in every country worldwide is an ambitious and speculative idea. Infrastructure Investment Building supercomputers in every country would require a massive global investment. Supercomputers are extremely expensive to design, build, and install, with costs ranging from $100 million to $300 million per system1. This doesn't include ongoing operational expenses. Energy Requirements Supercomputers consume enormous amounts of energy. On average, these systems use 6-7 megawatts of power, with peak consumption reaching 9.5 megawatts1. The annual energy cost for a single supercomputer can be approximately $6-$7 million1. Implementing such systems globally would require significant upgrades to power grids and energy infrastructure. Total Cost of Ownership The total cost of ownership for supercomputers goes beyond the initial investment. When factoring in electricity, labor, and facilities, the cost per core-hour can reach $0.12 to $0.15, assuming 100% utilization. For a global initiative, these costs would be multiplied across numerous countries. Economic Impact The global supercomputer market is expected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it will reach $27.17 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 11.2%. A worldwide "Sovereign AI" initiative could potentially accelerate this growth. Challenges Implementing supercomputers globally faces several challenges: High operating costs: The substantial energy consumption and maintenance requirements pose significant ongoing expenses. Technical expertise: Managing and optimizing supercomputers requires specialized skills, which may be scarce in some countries. Environmental concerns: The massive energy requirements raise environmental issues that would need to be addressed. Potential Benefits Despite the challenges, a global supercomputer network could offer benefits such as: Advanced research capabilities: Countries could enhance their scientific research in fields like climate science, genetics, and materials science. Economic development: Access to supercomputing power could drive innovation and economic growth across various sectors. Data sovereignty: Countries could maintain control over their data and AI development, aligning with the concept of "Sovereign AI". While the idea of SMCI building supercomputers in every country is speculative, sure, but as Elon said, AI will be just like a utility comany and will required AI centers globally. The global investment in AI infrastructure is indeed substantial. Goldman Sachs estimates that around $1 trillion will be spent over the next few years on data centers, semiconductors, and grid upgrades related to AI development. This gives an indication of the scale of investment required for a global supercomputing initiative. SMCI is at the forefront of the AI implementation. Learn about the new partnerships being formed with NVDA. Meanwhile you should be counting the sales SMCI has been making. Tripple capacity and demand for the next decaded.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by imcnf5c4ff
3