Upstart crumbles making new lows. Will it bounce?Hi everyone,
Today I will demonstrate another example of a catastrophic dump in growth technology stock. This time we are taking a look at Upstart NASDAQ:UPST .
The stock IPOed in December 2020 and I still remember the hype created around it. In August 2021 it started goind parabolic. Classic growth IPO stock.
The entirety of fintwit community seemed to hold this stock in their portfolios. Everyone was boasting how their YTD return is 80% thanks to Upstart performance.
That's when you know it's time to get out.
NASDAQ:UPST topped in October 15. The stock was valued at 420 times earnings.
It's price fell 72% in three months. From 401 all the way down to 111 .
Even after 72% fall TTM P/E ratio of the stock is 113.
Now, the question is will it bounce ?
The stock currently is in a very steep downtrend, which will be broken easily, once determined buyers step in. Thus far, they are nowhere in sight.
Since the IPO by far the largest portion of volume traded occurred in 122-137 price range. In order to rebound we need to see acceptence in this area.
Otherwise, look out for these levels below:
103, 81, 43.
Please let me know what are your thoughts on a current state of the tech sector.
As always, trade wisely and good luck!
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Disclaimer!!!
This is not financial advise
1UPST trade ideas
$UPST, trading it 1/14For 1/14, intraday trading ideas for options; For red or green market day. #options #daytrading
Break over 117 (entry, long), it can see 122-126 (exit)
Break below 107 (entry, short), it can see 98-102 (exit)
Option Trading 101:
Risk what you can lose (0.5%-5%)
Watch buyers and sellers (their interactions & sentiment, ex. exhaustion of buying or selling, etc.) in strikes that you’re watching & the ticker too; this is how YOU manage YOUR trade.
Consider following and checking out bio and prior posts and recaps (on twitter ), have a great one. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
UPST : No Hype Price , Entry Here !After I've considered risks below , I accept to buy at current valuation.
- Revenue is non-recurring. ( transaction based )
- Concentration Risk on customer side : Cross River Bank
- Concentration Risk on supplier side : Credit Karma
- Competition
Still competition with other Giant Tech whose consumer data flow via their platform. They can train own AI with data inside company.
- Regulatory Risk
Upstart is not responsible for NPL% , default. Unknown problem from State policy may force concern player to take action in some way.
Proper bet should be made in small allocation !
$UPST, trading it 1/11For 1/11, intraday trading ideas for options; For red or green market day. #options #daytrading
Break over 116 (entry, long), it can see 123-126 (exit)
Break below 107 (entry, short), it can see 97-100 (exit)
Option Trading 101:
Risk what you can lose (0.5%-5%)
Watch buyers and sellers (their interactions & sentiment, ex. exhaustion of buying or selling, etc.) in strikes that you’re watching & the ticker too; this is how YOU manage YOUR trade.
Consider following and checking out bio and prior posts and recaps (on twitter ), have a great one. Not financial advice.
$UPST, trading it 1/10For 1/10, intraday trading ideas for options; For red or green market day. #options #daytrading
Break over 126 (entry, long), it can see 134-137 (exit)
Break below 113 (entry, short), it can see 102-105 (exit)
Option Trading 101:
Risk what you can lose (0.5%-5%)
Watch buyers and sellers (their interactions & sentiment, ex. exhaustion of buying or selling, etc.) in strikes that you’re watching & the ticker too; this is how YOU manage YOUR trade.
Consider following and checking out bio and prior posts and recaps (on twitter), have a great one. Not financial advice.
$UPST, trading it 1/7For 1/7, intraday trading ideas for options; For red or green market day. #options #daytrading
Break over 124.5 (entry, long), it can see 133-137 (exit)
Break below 115 (entry, short), it can see 103-107 (exit), WATCH that ~113 (Low Of Day) area
Option Trading 101:
Risk what you can lose (0.5%-5%)
Watch buyers and sellers (their interactions & sentiment, ex. exhaustion of buying or selling, etc.) in strikes that you’re watching & the ticker too; this is how YOU manage YOUR trade.
Consider following and checking out my prior posts & recaps (on twitter), have a great one. Not financial advice.
$UPST, trading it 1/6For 1/6, intraday trading ideas for options; For red or green market day. #options #daytrading
Break over 133.5 (entry, long), it can see 141.5-145 (exit)
Break below 123 (entry, short), it can see 111.5-115 (exit)
Option Trading 101:
Risk what you can lose (0.5%-5%)
Watch buyers and sellers (their interactions & sentiment, ex. exhaustion of buying or selling, etc.) in strikes that you’re watching & the ticker too; this is how YOU manage YOUR trade.
Consider following and checking out my prior posts & recaps (on twitter), have a great one. Not financial advice.
$UPST, trading it 1/5For 1/5, intraday trading ideas for options; For red or green market day. #options #daytrading
Break over 141 (entry, long), it can see 149-152 (exit)
Break below 133 (entry, short), it can see 122-125 (exit)
Option Trading 101:
Risk what you can lose (0.5%-5%)
Watch buyers and sellers (their interactions & sentiment, ex. exhaustion of buying or selling, etc.) in strikes that you’re watching & the ticker too; this is how YOU manage YOUR trade.
Consider following and checking out my prior posts, have a great one. Not financial advice.
UPSTART Potential-Possible last wave 5 correction might bring the price to $105-102
-Same price target coincides with 0.786 FIb retracement line
-Price was rejected at 0.618 Fib retracement line of $165
-If price breaks upward and closes above 0.618 than this scenario is invalidated.
-This is not financial advise just confirmation bias based on the indicators included in this analysis
UPST I did open some call options and I’ve been playing this stock quite a bit these past few weeks as it’s been very volatile and insanely awesome to trade and make a lot of money. I opened some calls around $143 range and I’m kind of looking at this as a potential risinf wedge leading up to down trendinf resistance. My idea here is to watch the 160 level as that was a previous high, but mainly I’m watching the 164 to 165 range as that some daily ribbon and ichumochi cloud resistance. If by chance we could break above and hold above 165 this thing is going to absolutely tear, however I’m expecting a pretty solid rejection in that range
UPST Looks Pretttttttty good...UPST lo
Looks like it could be a big mover.. We will see. It's always great to have ones like these to have fun with!
Check out historically the performance of the stock price when certain conditions are met. Right now we are seeing a bullish trend and possibly break out of a brutal downtrend.
ABC BullishPossible stop below C or where you see support . Price appears to be meeting resistance at the prior gap up.
You can calculate targets by subtracting A from B. Taking that number and multiplying it by .386, .618 and .786. Then add these values to the long entry level. You may see a long entry at a different level than I do, but it does need to clear resistance.
No recommendation.
UPST fell from an ugly top but seems to have settled in to a prior gap
Gap Fills To be honest I'm a bit confused on the direction of the stock. I do believe that this bearish trend isn't over like block and paypal however the lower gap on the daily seems pretty enticing for shorts. i'm currently down because i bought a stupid call contract but I'll be selling it at market open.
$UPST: Long way down...I think $UPST is poised to fall hard from here, for a good while, back to the start of the crazy uptrend we had since August 2021. I've personally managed to capture a great upside trade, and now moved into speculating on the downside here...I've shared these with my signals service clients in real time, and also commented on it in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom here.
There's a chance the company's business model is fraudulent, and it had an unbelievably crazy upside move recently, which strikes me as a bubble that is bursting. I am not seeing a rational way to justify the valuation it commands and it has a weak to non existent moat when compared against $SOFI or other lenders...Using AI as a buzzword isn't a good enough reason. Their default rates could end up being much worse than they anticipate based on their models too.
Anyways, from a technical perspective, this is a good chance to short the stock given that the weekly uptrend signal that predicted the rally the stock had has expired, and it implies a potential move back down to the start of the trend if weakness ensues. Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Upstart's Next RallyElliot Wave Analysis on $UPST:
1- Corrective Wave 2 should most likely be completed somewhere in the zone depicted on the chart
2- Wave 2 may not be complete before 17 Mar 2022
3- Wave A, the first leg down of Wave 2, is already stretched enough so the price should reverse to the upside sooner than later
4- Wave 3, which is usually the longest and strongest of all waves has a price target of $750 to $1130. A more accurate target can be estimated once Wave 2 is complete
5- A very rough estimate shows us that Wave 3 should be completed around mid-2024 yielding 5x to 8x if $UPST is purchased at today's price around $140
This is not financial advice, DYODD