EURUSD1! trade ideas
Euro 6E - Breakout
I'm sure the Europeans will be excited to wake up and see the the Euro is out of the basement.
Of course makes sense that this would happen while they're all sleeping. Thanks Asian session buyer?!
Down channel is now broken.
After pausing at a Point of Control (not viewable 6 hr chart) - its picked up steam and heading to towards this POC only viewable on 6 hour + chart. Which is also at the .382 Fib.
This is the easy target - as these things go, they always go further than you could expect so moving up to the High Volume Node is not out of the question sitting at $1.17490.
This is a good spot for rejection - as its median price on this chart.
There is higher target higher at 1.17980 - that seems far off. But hey you never know, bias doesn't help much in trading.
This last move has been quick and sneaky.
CME:6E1!
We keep short in 6E - Weekly chatHello Traders
In the absence of today's close to analyze volume. the euro/dollar future is still short, at least that is the information that the volume indicator says.
The fast volume indicator just gave a short signal, also the slow volume indicator confirms the short trend.
If the price closes below the 38.2% fibo there is a good chance that it will go for the 50% fibo, exactly 1.15.
Keep it simple and mechanical
Have a good day!!
EURO - What just Happened?
The overnight Comex Futures market just watched 4 Billion worth of Gold Contracts get liquidated, in a low liquidity market causing a Flash Crash. This was 24000 Gold Contracts. You can read about that in the attached chart at the bottom.
So what happened? The US Dollar Index (DXY) spiked blue on chart. This caused the price of Gold to go down, as well as the EURO. Incidentally 58% on the DXY is made up of the EURO (so it went down).
So all the buyers that bought the EURO and Gold, Silver Friday after the drop caused by positive Non-Farm Payrolls just got cleaned out. This is predictable - frankly the last place you want to be is where everyone else is. The banks (Market Movers) see the orders and just take them away, then go the direction you expect.
In this case you can see the high volume node which is also a 50% retracement - so this does make for a decent long.
All things being equal these contacts in EURO have been purchased (at lower prices) so the expectation is both Gold/EURO will head higher.
New trading Strategy upgrade - EUROHi traders, this is my personal trading idea only. Please give an AGREE/ LIKE, my trading strategy is Price Auction - Chart only, I don't use indicators, MA, signals and trend line etc. Your comments are highly welcome. We need a relax and happy trading with happy ending on each trade. My chaos drawing is not to predict and guess the further, it is my plan where we are on the chart and how we shall trade on what we see. Good luck guys.
Sell on m5-m15 chart then ready to buy when euro have a new lower low on h1 and d1 chart.
Long Euro - Update
The other day I posted a 12 hour chart showing the clear divergence between the price and the RSI.
While this remains true when I zoomed out to the daily chart looking for ideal entry - I noticed a larger structure.
This will allow for a double bottom - I suspect that we will spend a few days on the lower trendline testing it.
If it holds at around 1.16800 - I will be taking a long from there.
Right now buyers are lining up at 1.17800 there is 'line in the sand', looking this chart they will get stopped out.
Perhaps this will end up looking like a Gartley or Cypher - but for simplicity I've drawn a couple of triangles.
Long Euro
12 Hour Chart shown
The Euro is an regression channel and so is the RSI both going opposite directions.
This a big triangle that the EURO is in - using the (1) line of the Fib, also the mid-line of the triangle - so this could be considered a double top as well, and this case the target.
AUDUSD offers similar prospects, USDCAD already on the move.
Divergence in the DXY is similar.
Euro Futures Short perspective. I expect the ECB not to make any changes, this is due to the Strategic Review Report which they released recently (June Meeting), European policymakers made it clear that they won’t be TAPERING (key word) anytime soon. Market participants anticipate a dovish tilt on the monetary policy stance.
I expect the ECB to increase quantitative easing to stimulate the EU Zone. ECB will highly likely highlight more QE during todays press conference. With that am looking for Euro to be weaker
6E Approaching Crisis Moment for August - October/NovemberAugust is a Pivotal month for Geopolitical Events which began gaining momentum in March of
this Year.
The Economic crisis is a large contagion spreading throughout the European Union.
The inability of the EU to continue buying Debt from its member states is clearly grinding to a
sudden halt.
Pressure to break up the EU is mounting in both scope and scale -Forcing the European Central Bank
to begin enacting Currency controls - moving to a Digital Currency with no intrinsic value.
This will in turn provide strength for the US DX, as confidence collapses across the European Union.
Borrowing forever is coming to an decided end. Since the Greek Crisis unfolded, Nations within this
Political Union have seen bailout after bailout fail.
Confidence has been all but lost, we will see this Crisis spread Globally. It is unavoidable.
The Moneyness of Credit has dissolved:
Christine Lagarde - "We think that it's a duty of us to actually have available digital currencies that
would operate to the benefit of consumers."
Nothing could be further from the truth.
FX will come under immense duress. Dark Pools will profit exponentially in to 2022.
Negative interest rates have destroyed the European bond markets, the very same will occur here
the coming years.
Debt, no Treasury has intentions to pay back with anything but inflated script - this too, has failed
for the EU.
We will see how the 6E trades from August to October, my Analysis brings me to conclude this charade
is approaching its disruptive end.
It is best to tread lightly in FX as VX will increase dramatically.
The spillover effect will be dramatic, Yield Curve Control (YCC) will come under immense scrutiny once
we see LaGarde and her ilk begin to roll out their Agenda, EU Coin.
Extreme Caution Warranted - Regards, L11