GBPUSD1! trade ideas
GBP futures 4/11/2024Prior to CPI and Prior to 4 weeks before the CPI of 4/11/2024
We had 4 weeks of sell signals through COT report.
Date - Net position
03/19/24 -78,920
3/12/24 -78,920
3/5/24 -64,123
27/2/24 -51,590
Because of these net position changes I have decided to short GBP.
So far Cotton short trade is correct currently making 4%
AUD Lost .5%
EUR Lost .5%
POUND FUTURES SELL SHORTWaiting for rejection off the liquidity zone.
Then I will look to sell from that zone.
Selling only after the break below the HMA and the retest of the liquidity zone
**This is just my trading thought process and does not constitute as financial advice.
**Please trade with proper risk management*
6BV3On the backside of the short we can ape in for the bounce off the bottom, would not recommend futures as the open interest on the contracts will be low, options is how to play this. Safe side is sell the put (don't advise selling naked unless you can manage the trade at all hours) or a credit spread to hedge any risk. This will provide ample time to collect the premium through any volatile price actions. I will be buying the call (naked) this is a much riskier trade and the "WIN HERE" line is meant for me not sellers of the premium.
Disclaimer I took the trade out yesterday but still feel there is room to publish the idea. This is why I recommend selling the premium rather than buying the call.
GBPUSP (6B1!) Intraday trade - SHORTLooking like cable wants to retest the STONG support zone it broke recently.
As we know, when support breaks, it becomes RESISTANCE.
A good BREAKOUT entry would be below the 12:00am candle today.
Please remember, Jackson hole is today so exercise extra caution and if needs be, reduce your lot size. Remember, protect your profit.
GBPUSD (6B1!) Intraday trade - LONGThe news release was bad for the dollar.
it should soon reverse.
If the DXY falls off, cable should gain some strength.
Looking for a BREAKOUT LONG above the current 30 min candle. It seems like it has re-tested the bottom of the rage, so it makes sense to look for longs here.
Again, ONLY ENTER A BREAKOUT LONG ABOVE THE CURRENT 30 MIN CANDLE.
British Pound Futures 6BV3Disclaimer-Doing this mobile, it really sucks to be honest but here we go.
British Pound October 2023 - Short
Why V instead of U, concerns about the open interest on the September contracts on the CME. Open interest shirks about one month out, don’t get left holding the bag. For option traders, this does not affect your trade, your preference should be 6BU3 not 6BV3, futures is different.
In the last 15 years has a probability of success of 66%. Not the greatest however this 66% is “targets achieved” so as long as it is managed and not “set and forget” you should get some profit out of it. My first target for assessment is at 1.25$ or about there (mobile) that is a .02->.03 draw down and then the king killer target is at 1.21 which is over the last 15yr the high end for profit (.07$) which also lines up with support levels. However just because it lines up doesn’t mean sh*t. Setups could include a calendar spread, back end contract best option would be March imo, or you can hedge the risk on the USD (DX! U3 or V3 on ICE or something)on a long dated or tight (close stops)6BV3 contract.
Option dawgs
Best case you buy the put and are in it for a short time bc extrinsic value on the option contract will increase so I would not leave it open til the 29th unlike a futures contract. Selling premium here instead is safer however you won’t make as much $ as a bought put. I may wait on the credit side until it recovers in Dec. Whether you’re running the option naked or as a debit spread it should be managed regularly.
I cannot post external sites/info however reach out to me and I can provide further documentation. Hope this is readable……
“Where are the kids?”
-kewlkat
GBPUSD (6B1!) Midterm trade - LONGLooks like the pound has retested the bottom of this mid term trend.
Placing a BREAKOUT long above the current 4HR candle with a target at the top of the range makes sense.
Expecting cable to stay range bound for the foreseeable future, at least until we can discern whether the UK will have a hard or shallow recession.
$M6B - Huge Drop and High timeframe reversal coming upM6B had a huge drop today and checks all the boxes on the change of structure, liquidity grab on both the 4hr and 15m charts. On top of that the .618 (Orange) is right at the $1.2641. If this breaks into the grey box below and does not close below $1.2609 then it is a really good solid play. I put the PT at $1.2755 which was yesterday's close, but the .618 on the way down (Green) is at $1.2766, so above the close.
Short British PoundCommercials have been actively distributing sterling over the past month and a half, even as large and small speculators persist in taking long positions. However, today witnessed a startling turn of events as the Bank of England caught the market off guard by implementing a substantial 50 basis point rate hike. In the event that the price concludes the day on a downward trajectory, I will initiate a short position on the British Pound. This occurrence exemplifies a phenomenon known as 'news failure,' wherein bullish news unexpectedly yields bearish price action. Consequently, if today indeed marks the peak of the market, I intend to set my stop loss order at the day's high.
GBP - 1.24 Lower Next?!GBP - 1.24 Next?! CME:6B1! FX:GBPUSD
GBPUSD - 1.24 Next!
We've had a great run, I'd still be buying longer term dips on GBP - However, for now I feel a pull back is due and this is great opportunity for us traders to take opportunities of the bull and bear side!
Overall pattern, wedge - We've broken to down side the first area of interest to me is 1.24/ 1.23 high areas and the next would be 1.22 areas! If we are to close above 1.25 i'd be re thinking this plan...
Trade Journal
(Not Financial Advice)
GBPUSD - Short Term Bearish Analysis/ExpectationThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC