USDMXN nearing resistance with new incoming GovernmentIntraday Update: The USDMXN is nearing the 19.74 key resistance ahead of the new Mexican government inauguration today, and a break higher would put the 20.1500 resistance is play once again.
MXNUSD trade ideas
USD/MXN: Sheinbaum Era Begins Mexico makes history today as Claudia Sheinbaum becomes the country’s first female president. With nearly 35.5 million votes—representing close to 60% of the electorate—Sheinbaum secured more votes than any president in Mexican history.
Since the election, the Mexican peso has declined by around 13%. Recent price action has moved sideways as markets assess Sheinbaum's economic policies.
However, traders anticipating a sharper selloff in USD/MXN may need to wait, as the pair potentially remains upwardly biased with the 20 Day and 50 Day EMA outlining possibly areas of support.
USDMXN nearing key Fibonacci levelIntraday Update: The USDMXN is breaking higher intraday and is nearing the 61.8% retracement level of the last move lower. Also keep in mind this is a bullish channel and on Oct 1 the new Government will be inaugurated which may have some MXN bulls concerned.
USD/MXN Bounces Back Ahead of 50-Day SMAUSD/MXN appears to be bouncing back ahead of the 50-Day SMA (19.1627) as it climbs to a fresh weekly high (19.6849).
In turn, USD/MXN may track the positive slope in the moving average as it continues to hold above the indicator, with a break/close above the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone bringing the yearly high (20.2271) on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around 20.3200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) but lack of momentum to break/close above the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone may keep USD/MXN within the August range.
Lack of momentum to hold above the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may push USD/MXN back towards 19.1470 (61.8% Fibonacci extension), with the next area of interest coming in around the monthly low (19.0660).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
USD/MXN Elliot waves theoryThe ELLIOT WAVES theory have formed and filled the chart perfectly and now the price can continue to its uptrend right now creating new impulsive waves to the upside right now.
USD/MXN POTENCIAL UPTRENDAs you can see the price have formed an existing inverted head and shoulders in the 2 hour time frame for a better look in the chart.There will be more continuation of the pattern and the uptrend if the 20 EMA broke above the 100 SMA in the 2 hour time frame, the movements are confirmed too with the volume on each correction phase of the pattern and strong moves with strong movements
USD/MXN on Track to Test Positive Slope in 50-Day SMAUSD/MXN approaches the 50-Day SMA (18.9615) as it slips to a fresh monthly low (19.0919), with a break/close below 18.8560 (50% Fibonacci extension) bringing the 18.5090 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 18.6330 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around the August low (18.4291) but USD/MXN may track the positive slope in the moving average should it continue to hold above the indicator.
Need a move above the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region to bring the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone back on the radar, with a breach above the monthly high (20.1496) opening up the August high (20.2271).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
USDMXN testing the 61.8Intraday Update: The USDMXN is holding around the 61.8% retracement near the 19.19 level, which could allow for a bounce. A break of the 19.14 level would target the 19.00 level or channel support.
USD/MXN Vulnerable amid Struggle to Test August HighUSD/MXN may threaten the opening range for September as it struggles to test the August high (20.2271).
USD/MXN Rate Outlook
USD/MXN continues to pull back from the monthly high (20.1496) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 70, with a break/close below the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region raising the scope for a move towards 19.1470 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).
Next area of interest comes in around 18.8560 (50% Fibonacci extension) but USD/MXN may track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (18.7936) as it holds above the moving average.
Need a close above the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone to bring 20.3200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) on the radar, with the next hurdle coming in around the September 2022 high (20.5804).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus.
The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%.
Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month.
Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
USD going to pump hard Real recession incoming, you can smell it in the air. We are due for a huge correction.
Expecting a pump to resistance at around $17.50, thereafter one final drop to ~16.80 and an extreme pump after. $30 by 2028, you heard it here first.
USDMXN may break the 20.20 level soonIntraday Update: The USDMXN is nearing the 20.00 level as Mexico's Lower house approved general text by AMLO which would allow justices to be elected by popular vote. This has kept pressure on the MXN and a break of the 20.0000, then 20.2300 would trigger upside stops. While above 19.6000 the risk remains higher.
Will USDMXN Break Resistance to Continue Uptrend? Wait and see…Interesting pair to watch with major Non Farm Payrolls coming up Friday. A strong beat above estimates could send pair higher, passed previous failure at 20.22 level. Daily channel favors bulls however I expect a tough push higher unless economic data supports USD strength. Bearish for now with light shorts.
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USDMXN a sell perspectivePeso on a recent high at monthly levels
divergence and trendline broken indicating down side move
USDMXN Channel Up leading to 21.6500The USDMXN pair eventually gave us on our last analysis (June 27, see chart below) our desired bullish break-out above the multi-year Falling Wedge and the 1W MA200 and its next stop will most likely be our 21.6500 Target:
To view this trend from a more comprehensive perspective, we made today's analysis on the 1D time-frame. The prevailing pattern is a Channel Up, which as you can see is technically on its 3rd Bearish Leg.
Once it hits the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at the bottom of the Channel Up along with ideally the 1D RSI hitting its Support Zone, we will have the next short-term bullish signal. The Bullish Legs have so far been fairly symmetrical at a +15% rise. As a result our 21.000 Target is within the range of the expected rise ahead.
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USDMXN 13:22 14/08/2024No news but I reckon i found a decent 3 RR trade. Exotic markets always looked bullish to me. 19.95 price action target
USD/MXN: Positive Slope in 50-Day SMA in FocusUSD/MXN seems to be consolidating within the opening range for August as it struggles to extend the advance from the start of the week, but the exchange rate may track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (18.3576) should it continue to hold above the moving average.
USD/MXN Rate Outlook
Keep in the mind, the decline from the monthly high (20.2271) pulled the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back below 70, and USD/MXN may consolidate over the remainder of the month as the oscillator continues to move away from overbought territory.
Failure to hold above the 18.5090 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 18.6330 (50% Fibonacci retracement) region may push USD/MXN towards the monthly low (18.4291), with the next area of interest coming in around 18.2040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension).
Nevertheless, a break/close above 19.1470 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) may push USD/MXN towards the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) area, with the next hurdle coming in around 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
USDMXN Tech Zones Pre Open
USD MXN fell into last week, bring us to key support into Monday,
May see rejection following this and a bounce on local PA levels.
USDMXN at support ahead of Banxico todayIntraday Update: Ahead of the Banxico decision today, a descending wedge may be developing, and a break below the 18.95 level (hawkish hold) or a break back above the 19.38 level (dovish hold/cut) would be the breakout/breakdown points of interest today.
Peso Pressure Ahead of Major MXN Events Mexico's inflation data will be released Thursday morning, closely followed by the Central Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision in the afternoon.
July's headline inflation in Mexico is expected to have accelerated to its highest level in over a year, according to a Reuters poll. However, the core index is anticipated to continue its moderation.
Rising prices in July could complicate any plans for the central bank to lower its key interest rate this week. In late June, the central bank opted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged after a rate cut in March, the first since mid-2021 when it began its tightening cycle.
The Mexican Peso has extended its losing streak to four consecutive days against the US Dollar, marking ten losses in the last eleven sessions.
The currency closed above the psychological 19.00 level for two days, having surpassed the previous year-to-date high of 18.99. Market momentum could favor sellers, with the Relative Strength Index indicating overbought conditions. The immediate resistance might stand at the current year-to-date high of 20.22.
On the downside, a breach of the 19.00 support level could open the path to the August stumble close to 18.50, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 18.20.
USDMXN at key confluence Intraday Update: The USDMXN spike above the 20.00 level screamed past the 61.8% retracement and 161% extension before slipping back below the 20.00 level. Bulls will have to be really careful if we trade back above the 20.00 level intraday.
USDMXN PESO - LONG TERM SELLInitiated a sell trade targeting 18.25. If you're like me and like to trade small and long term this one has a lot of potential. You'll gain interest from the swap! A correction is due around this level. Keep watch and be patient.
Good rule of thumb is to use low leverage and small lot sizes. Small wins are big wins over time.
I like to do .01 for every $1000 usd that I have adding trades along the way (every 200 pips or so).
Thats the plan.
