MXNUSD trade ideas
Short in USDMXN"I have recently taken a short position in USD/MXN due to the emergence of a bearish harmonic pattern. After conducting a thorough analysis of the market, I have identified the formation of a bearish harmonic pattern, which suggests a potential downward movement in the price of USD/MXN.
This trading decision is based on the expectation that the price of USD/MXN will decline as the bearish harmonic pattern unfolds. I have also observed additional bearish indicators that support my decision to go short.
As a diligent trader, I will closely monitor the price action, market sentiment, and relevant economic factors to effectively manage my position and make necessary adjustments as the trade progresses. Implementing a strong risk management strategy is crucial to protect my capital and optimize potential profits.
However, it is important to note that trading USD/MXN or any other financial instrument carries risks, and careful consideration is necessary. I highly recommend conducting thorough research, developing a sound risk management plan, and, if needed, seeking guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions."
Retest $17.10 then lower to $16.98
SCENARIO 1) Strong immediate Resistance at $17.07 currently on USDMXN, although a push to retest $17.10 would be fair. Key point is a Leg down $16.98 is in my sights.
SCENARIO 2) IPC Mexico INDEX for Mexican stocks takes a breather after reach ATH’s near 57,700. Indicators point to OVER-BOUGHT conditions plus a gap fill needs attention at 55,200. That would be a likely target for a retracement. In alignment the USDMXN would likely head back up $17.20-25.
SCENARIO 3) USDMX is at a prime level to form a DOUBLE-BOTTOM, which will ensure USDMXN a revisit to $17.50 psychological level.
USDMXN: Sell Short EntryGood morning trader, today I share with you this short entry I made on the USDMXN pair as I found a good setup as shown in the main image above.
Based on my experience, I have codified a series of signals and triggers that I have incorporated into a single indicator which, as you can see from the image, shows me a clear and quick overview of the market, making the analysis faster and more intuitive.
The image therefore speaks for itself. We have a start of a bearish structure which is immediately confirmed by a short trend start signal and a structure confirmation signal.
The price then begins its descent, moving below the TrendCloud which, given the uncertainty, turns gray as it does not have a defined trend in itself. The price then returns to the ema21 which acts as resistance, where a short price action trigger is created with a reverse candle.
Subsequently we see the price return to the moving averages area where an FT Short signal appears which is not immediately confirmed. The price needs to create 2 more swing highs on the resistance area (TrendCloud / ema21 / ema100 / ema21 weekly) before confirming the signal, which it did on December 13th with the breaking of the last swing low , starting the new cycle in favor of the trend.
Going down to the 4H I entered a retracement in the ema21, with a stop above the highs and a take profit momentarily in the low area at 16.75 to be managed based on future movements. I expect a movement in the 16.95 area where I have highlighted a trendline of support at the lows where I could close all or part of the position if the price does not show the strength to continue.
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TAGS: FX:USDMXN FOREXCOM:USDMXN SAXO:USDMXN FX_IDC:USDMXN PEPPERSTONE:USDMXN EASYMARKETS:USDMXN
USD MXN ShortAfter Dovish FED and Strong México económico. For 2024 the Pesos will reach 16 and 15 pesos.
I expect just consolidation for next days.
I arrived from Europe, actually in the CDMX and now is hard to have a strong peso.
Before going to La Paz, I will be in Querétaro and change some Euros as I expect a pull back up so before the price fall. From 18 to 22 you can choose the best day.
I expect prices between 17.20 and 17.22
Don't hesitate to contact me for further guidance.
Fed vs. Banxico: USD/MXN forecast The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) on Thursday. Forecasts suggest that both central banks will maintain their current interest rates.
Recent indications from Banxico suggest a leaning towards a more accommodative monetary policy. However, Deputy Governor Irene Espinosa has expressed reservations, highlighting the persistence and escalation of inflationary risks.
Analyzing the USD/MXN chart reveals an upward momentum, with the pair converging between the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA at 17.40. The reclaiming of the psychological level of 17.50 could be a crucial factor in confirming this momentum. If the USD/MXN experiences a decline, the 100-day SMA may serve as a noteworthy level before reaching support at 17.00/05.
Economists at Rabobank project USD/MXN to average around 17.20 in the next month. They expect the pair to trade around this level in early 2024 before potentially rising to the 17.80 region by the end of the first quarter.
USDMXN - Daily Outlook - Strategy DevelopmentJust a simple trade idea to diversify with a small long lot amongst other pairs.
Worst case... it drops to the ascending support and then just add another small long lot. Best to trade this idea with other pairs and close out all positions as a basket.
Trade Safe
USDMXNThis Week FORECAST (Low Risk)
Opportunity for short. This setup trading idea is for intraday. >> TAYOR
I'm just giving an idea, it's up to you to follow.
USDMXN BUYBreaking out from bearish trend into bullish USDMXN can be a good buy from cmp till major resistance.
USDMXN Going LongUSDMXN has created a BAT reversal pattern, the breakout of the LH indicates a bullish trend reversal. Going long on USDMXN
Elliott Waves Suggests USDMXN Can Be A Nice ShortHey folks,
In this article, I’ll give you an update on USDMXN, which we’ve talked about before. You probably noticed that the Mexican Peso (MXN) has been quite strong for the past couple of years, mainly because of higher interest rates compared to other places, USDMXN short was a good carry trade.
However, things have started to shift a bit recently. Inflation in the US went up a bit due to rising energy costs, and some folks thought the Federal Reserve (FED) might keep a tough stance (hawkish) on monetary policy. This pushed the US Dollar higher along with yields.
But now, there’s a new element in the mix – the geopolitical tension between Hamas and Israel. This situation can make the markets super jumpy and volatile. I’m not so sure if the FED can keep its hawkish stance in such a shaky environment. Keep in mind, during a conflict or war, a government might ease up on its tough policies to fund the war effort and get cheap financing.
So, I’m wondering if it might be the right time to expect USDMXN to continue its downward trend. In fact, the pair has dropped this week, especially after markets opened with some gaps in various assets.
From an Elliott Wave point of view, we can see a decent corrective rise from recent lows, a clear fourth wave move up to the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance. We’re seeing a turnaround from there, and if we break key rising trendline, more bears could join the party. This makes sense since the overall trend is still bearish as long as the price stays below the 2022 trendline resistance. So, I think a fifth wave down might be just around the corner, and it could happen quite quickly, especially if the US Dollar’s trend changes, which is possible if stocks would stay in risk-on mode till end of the week.
Broken Trendline Keeps USDMXN In Downtrend For Wave 5Broken Trendline Keeps USDMXN In Downtrend For Wave 5 from technical point of view and by Elliott wave theory.
USDMXN shorts are doing very well as we mentioned and highlighted on October 12, when we spotted a corrective recovery in wave (4).
As you can see today, USDMXN turned nicely down from projected resistance and it can be headed much lower as bulls failed to break above the daily trendline resistance in October. So this was seen as a corrective and temporary bounce; wave (4), which puts wave (5) in action after broken trendline support, so weakness is ready to resume, ideally down to 16.00.
USD/MXN - 4HUSD/MXN - 4H - Bullish
Bat Pattern
PRZ - Potential Reversal Zone
Bullish Divergence
Buy Stop (17.285) - Previous LH
This breakout might be a bad omen for the bearsBullish BAT pattern has formed with bullish divergence. Break of Lower High will turn bearish bias into bullish.
Long USD/MXNThere are signs of a reversal on the USD/MXN pair.
Let's Long now and take profit at 17.65
USD/MXN going up?The pair has broken the down trend line and a probable up movement is expected. Take your profits early, as the pair is in a down trend since the Corona crisis.
USDMXN Daily and Weekly TrendThe daily chart of USDMXN is back in step with the weekly trend.
Weekly Snapshot:
USD/MXN; Get ready for the turn!This pair is about to hit major support where it's likely not only to hold but turn and then go on a tear to the upside.
The indication is for a +20% run here, from the buy zone, making it well worth the wait - and then a major Buy.
Pmi's Will Make Or Break Usd/MXnPmi's Will Make Or Break Usd/MXn
Projected to come lower than expected it could be the signal that tips the market back into recession fears
Heavy reaction is expected here as goods balance and trade have been circumvented through Mexico as of late
Technically we are at a historic bounce area, a decent area of demand we are leaning towards a bullish bias with the trigger being any strength off this level
USDMXN - SHORTSelling only after the retest of the HMA
**This is just my trading thought process and does not constitute as financial advice.
**Please trade with proper risk management**
USDMXNUSDMXN opportunity for long. This setup trading idea is for intraday. >> TAYOR
I'm just giving an idea, it's up to you to follow.
USDMXN BULLISHAll my indicators point to a very bullish USDMXN, i will be investing in this over the long term. Price should reach around the 18.8 mark.
