FCPOV2019 trade ideas
13) FCPO : bull and bear are playing tug-of-warAs I continue frm the previous 11), I quoted that fcpo might test the 4280 soon. Well, this wasn't the case for last week, 20-24th Jan 2025. fcpo was trading within the range frm 4135 - 4280. Although price had fallen frm 21-23rd Jan, market has rebounded in the last minute, which was on the Friday, 24th...so it is possible that a reversal has happened.
Price moving above 4280 will confirm a bullish comeback while price below 4135 indicates a bearish move that eventually hits 4100 and 4000.
PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun.
#tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia
Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
FCPO - Correction in progressTrend : Uptrend
Current Wave : Wave 1 to Wave 2
Note: If the counting is right, the minor wave is currently moves toward Wave C to complete Wave 2. I am sure the Wave C is not yet finished. Thus we need to wait until we see a reversal structure to confirm the completion of Wave 2. At this moment the corrective wave structure forming just a simple ABC. If the correction wave become complex, we may see a combination of correction wave pattern (3-3-3 or 3-3-5 or 3-5-3). Just sit back and relax.
This is only my point of view. Not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Just sharing the idea only.
TAYOR
FCPO Outlook: Key Levels and Strategies for the Week AheadRecent Market Overview
MYX:FCPOJ2025 MYX:FCPOK2025 MYX:FCPO1!
The market, both for outright contracts and spread contracts, has shown significant signs of consolidation recently. As such, I believe a comprehensive analysis is necessary to identify contracts worth monitoring, key price levels to watch, and whether the market leans bullish or bearish in the near term.
April Contract
From Friday’s daily chart closing price, it seems that the price has found support around 4,130 points. However, the overall trend remains bearish, as evidenced by a clear double-top pattern, a break below the neckline, and two retests of the neckline on the daily chart.
I foresee two possible scenarios for the upcoming price action: consolidation or continued decline. If the market consolidates, the range will likely be between 4,120 and 4,500 points. If the market continues to decline next week, I expect resistance around the 4,000-point level, which is approximately 300 points below the current price.
May Contract
Friday’s closing price on the daily chart suggests that the May contract has also found support around 4,100 points. The recent price action mirrors that of the April contract, showing a double-top pattern, a break below the neckline, and two retests of the neckline.
However, the 4,000-point support level for the May contract appears stronger than that of the April contract. Currently, the benchmark contract is the April contract. Does this imply that when the May contract becomes the benchmark (on February 17), the price will find support at 4,000 points and then reverse into an uptrend?
If my hypothesis is correct, the upcoming price action will likely involve a third test of the neckline and consolidation, as we await the May contract to become the benchmark.
Summary of Outright Contracts
Based on the April and May contracts, I anticipate a relatively stronger market next week, with a potential third test of the neckline around 4,500 points for the April contract.
Additionally, Chicago soybean oil futures showed no significant decline this week, closing at 45.72 points. The price still has approximately 3.30 points of room before hitting resistance at 49.00–50.00 points. If prices fail to rise and instead decline on Monday, a reassessment will be necessary.
APR25 - JUL25 Spread Contract
The daily chart for the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract shows a clear ongoing downtrend. The observed price range is roughly between 100 and 200 points, with Friday’s closing price at 122 points.
I do not find this contract appealing for entry. If outright contract resistance is at 4,000 points, the support level for this spread contract is likely around 100 points. With only 22 points of downside room to that support level, the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable for short positions. For long positions, the price must first test 100 points and show signs of reversal before considering an entry.
MAY25 - AUG25 Spread Contract
The daily chart for the MAY25 - AUG25 spread contract also shows a downtrend, though the pattern is less well-defined compared to the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract. Key support and resistance levels are estimated at 50, 100, 150, and 200 points. Friday’s closing price was 122 points.
Compared to the APR25 - JUL25 spread, I find this contract less favorable for trading due to its less distinct overall pattern.
JUN25 - SEP25 Spread Contract
The daily chart for the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract also indicates a downtrend, with prices having tested the final support zone of 0–20 points. Friday’s closing price was 37 points, showing signs of a rebound.
The overall pattern appears relatively well-formed, and there is sufficient upside potential, with resistance levels at 80 and 150 points. If the outright contract price action aligns with my forecast for a rebound to the neckline, this spread contract could rise to 150 points.
Summary of Spread Contracts
After analyzing these three spread contracts, I believe the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract is the most reasonable for a long position next week, followed by the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract.
If Monday’s price action does not align with expectations and declines instead, a reassessment will be necessary. I plan to enter a long position in the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract on Monday. If prices reverse downward after entry, I will implement a stop-loss at 17 points. If outright contracts trend downward on Monday, I will refrain from entering the market.
FCPO WEEK 4 2025: SHORT.Price moved to the targeted level as expected even though it took a while to reached it. As of last week, bearish is still in control. Price is expected to make a retracement to fill up the gap and then continue lower to the first TP (TP1) before eventually reached TP2.
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Cheers.
11) fcpo : play predict the market againinstead of super huge 4280 yesterday, I shall focus on what is happening now. price will fluctuate between 4170 -4200 and move higher to retest 4280 IF it is a real rebound.
...fcpo is a fast moving market, so before u know, it is ald testing higher and higher price at like 4400 and 4530...
IF it is not a real rebound, THEN u will see price descend lower to 4100 and 4000
PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun.
#tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia
Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
9) FCPO : slipping down further by the time I am writing this, fcpo-apr has slipped down further to 4140...fcpo has gone tru a 100pts gap down on the exchange date and another two more gaps after that. My bias, fcpo-apr is oversold! of course, my bias, not the market. I tried to long the market three times and all losers. down 40pts++. maybe I should have stopped as my plan. when it hits 10% drawdowns. now it marks somewhere to 15%. maybe I should juz short the market when it looks like falling.
fcpo needs to challenge 4280++ to reverse the trend and now it is heading to 4000.
PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun.
#tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia
Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
Swing Failure of Bottom (FCPO)Hey Traders,
Above sharing is regarding a futures product (Crude Palm Oil) by Bursa Derivatives Malaysia. We have been testing out this product lately and found this product is respecting major trends and patterns flawlessly. So here is our plan for today.
For the past weeks, the supply of CPO has shown negative data and the trend is slowing down. We have seen a clear breakout of trendline and price has created a Higher High (Our 1st Confirmation of Trend Change) . We shall expect if the 4300MYR level is breached, the price shall continue rising to next 4400MYR. More plans soon regarding this product. Happy Trading!
7) FCPO : hit 10% drawdowns. what next?my earlier prediction that fcpo might go on strong bullish action has gone bad. three trades, two losses, one breakeven. now since I have hit the 10% drawdowns, I think I need to stop trading real ones and wait till Feb. let see how it goes. haiz. maybe I should set "stop-and-reverse" straight away. tmr is the last day of fcpo-march, at least break for one day first to cool things out.
PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun.
#tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia
Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
Main structureMain direction of fcpo structure analysis
cleaninb micro structure of fcpo for trend analysis
Bullish Signals and FCPO Entry Opportunities ? MYX:FCPO1!
MYX:FCPOH2025
MYX:FCPOJ2025
The March contract and the APR25-JUL25 spread contract both closed higher on Friday, at 4,391 points and 142 points, respectively. Based on the following analysis, I believe this is an opportune moment to enter a long position:
1. Strong Performance of Chicago Soybean Oil
Chicago soybean oil experienced a significant two-day rally, with a cumulative gain of 7.8%. Although the second session had not yet closed, this substantial increase—if not a sign of a sustained bullish reversal—will likely provide short-term support for the upward movement of FCPO.
2. Reversal Signals in the Spread Contract
The MAR25-JUN25 spread contract showed early signs of a reversal on Thursday. From past experience, spread contracts often reverse ahead of outright contracts. While this pattern is not guaranteed every time, when it does occur, outright contracts typically follow suit within one or two trading days.
3. Support Observed for the March Contract
Although the March contract did not reverse on Thursday, there was clear evidence of support around the 4,250-point level, which led to a closing price of 4,295 points. This suggests that bullish sentiment is beginning to emerge in the market.
Outlook and Strategy
Based on the daily charts of the March and April contracts, there appears to be approximately 150 points of upside potential to the next resistance levels—4,550 points for March and 4,450 points for April. Additionally, Chicago soybean oil closed with a strong 7.9% gain on Friday, contributing to an impressive 14.6% weekly increase. As a result, the March FCPO is expected to open at least 50 points higher tomorrow.
From a technical perspective, it remains unclear whether the market has entered a full bullish trend. Therefore, it will be crucial to closely monitor the chart patterns of the March and April contracts. Should the weekly charts close higher next week, it would strongly confirm the establishment of a bullish trend.
5) FCPO : let's play predict what will happen next weeknext week, 13-15th Jan 2025, is the last week of fcpo-march. fcpo-Apr will emerge on 16th Jan 2025.
-IF the price retraces back to 4350-4375 region OR lower at 4300-4320 region before bouncing higher. This will probably end up as tug-of-war between bull and bear. THEN, it will probably end up as a sideway pattern...
-OR a better bullish action is the price will move above 4400 -4425 immediate resistance, retraces back and bounces higher as a strong bull action.
-IF the price falls below 4330, the current support, THEN the price will move lower.
PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun.
#tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia
Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
4) FCPO : first drawdowns in 2025...2 trades, 2 loses ...I am on the right direction but got stopped out bcox too early entry...short fcpo last night at 4374 and got gapped up SL at 4395 in the early morning, lose 21pts and then re-entry too soon at 4376, SL 4386 was hit immediately, lost another 10pts...
more frustrating is, fkli which I short at 1633 x2, were both gud winners but I took them out too early, making breakeven trades and not 25pts++ if I were to hold them both...hit my 1st and 2nd tp...1623 and 1618...
taking profit early is killing our trades unlike most guru out there who would say "taking profits is better than loss"...a big "NO NO'...imagine if I hold my trades and make the profits supposedly...they will buy back my losers frm fcpo and my account will still make a little bit profits and move a bit forward...
my solution to both my fcpo and fkli tdy is...RE-ENTER!
but I am not sure how many time? leave me a comment if you think re-enter could solve this problem...thx
#tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia
Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling."
FCPO Spread Analysis: Mixed MovementsThe MAR25-JUN25 spread contract opened at 233 points today. During the morning session, the market dropped to a low of 191 points. However, signs of recovery emerged in the afternoon session, and the contract ultimately ended the day with a modest decline of 14 points, closing at 213 points.
The March contract opened at 4,361 points and trended lower throughout the morning. During midday trading, the price briefly surged to 4,425 points before resuming its downward movement. In the final session, the contract saw a small rebound of 31 points, closing at 4,373 points.
The spread contract settled at 213 points, and the March contract has yet to test the strong support zone of 4,120–4,150 points that I had anticipated. As such, I am holding my position for now. If the March contract drops into the strong support zone, I will exit immediately due to the potential for a rebound in the spread contract.
MYX:FCPO1!
Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Signals Decline in MAR25-JUN25 SpreadMYX:FCPO1!
The opening price of the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract today was 265 points. During the midday session, the market experienced a sharp decline to 206 points but later recovered, closing at 227 points.
From the daily chart of the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract, a clear head-and-shoulders top pattern can be observed, with today’s closing price falling below the neckline, signaling a bearish trend. Referring to the March FCPO contract, the closing price today was 4,342 points, approximately 200 points above the strong support zone I identified at 4,120–4,150 points. The overall trend remains bearish.
Based on this analysis, I expect the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract to continue its downward movement tomorrow. If tomorrow’s closing price is around 200 points and the March contract has not yet tested the strong support zone, I will hold onto the position. However, if the March contract reaches the strong support zone, it will be necessary to exit the position to mitigate the risk of a rebound in the spread contract.
Market activity during the night session was relatively subdued. I look forward to seeing whether tomorrow’s price action aligns with this analysis.
FCPO Week 2 2025: SHORT.Expecting that FCPO will continue lower next week. Probably it will move closer to the 4200 to 4100 area. From there it will depends on price action on the next direction.
Palm Oil Market Watch: Technical Breakdown & Fundamental ShakeupIn the ever-changing landscape of the global vegetable oil market, palm oil takes center stage once again. From India’s sharp increase in imports to Indonesia’s biodiesel policy adjustments and Malaysia’s declining export figures, the palm oil market is witnessing a dynamic interplay of forces. On the technical front, critical price levels and trend shifts are adding layers of uncertainty and opportunity for market participants. This article delves into the latest developments and future outlook of the palm oil market through both fundamental and technical perspectives.
1. News and Fundamental Analysis
Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at the Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage Sunvin Group, stated that palm oil futures rebounded from earlier weakness because India, the world's largest edible oil importer, increased its palm oil purchases. India bought approximately 100,000 metric tons of palm oil during the first two working days of 2025.
Indonesia’s Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Yuliot Tanjung, announced on Friday that the country would provide a 1.5-month transition period for businesses to meet the new B40 biodiesel policy requirements. Initially, Indonesia planned to mandate a 40% palm oil content in biodiesel starting January 1, but industry stakeholders are still awaiting technical regulations for implementation.
Independent inspection company AmSpec Agri reported on Tuesday that Malaysia's palm oil product exports for November totaled 1,381,837 tons, a 2.5% decrease from November's 1,417,436 tons. Meanwhile, data from Intertek Testing Services (ITS) showed Malaysia’s palm oil product exports for December fell to 1,359,504 tons, down 7.8% from November's 1,473,761 tons.
Palm oil prices followed the trends of other competing edible oils as they vie for market share in the global vegetable oil market. In China, the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped by 2.56%, while the most active palm oil contract declined by 1.36%. The CBOT March soybean oil futures contract remained steady.
2. Technical Analysis
Malaysian BMD crude palm oil (CPO) futures rose on Friday but ended the week with a decline of over 5%, reversing gains from the previous week. The benchmark March CPO contract on BMD increased by RM41, or 0.95%, to RM4,374 per ton.
The weekly chart for the continuous contract FCPO1! shows that prices failed to hold the support level around RM4,500, instead falling to RM4,374. Despite losing the RM4,500 level, the overall upward trend structure remains intact on the weekly chart. The next support level is anticipated around RM4,120. If this level is also breached, it will be necessary to reassess whether the major trend has shifted from bullish to bearish.
On the daily chart for FCPO1!, the overall trend leans bearish. A clear double-top formation is evident, with a neckline break, resistance retest, and distinct downward waves. While support is visible around RM4,250, it is unlikely to be strong. Both the weekly and daily charts for the March contract indicate that RM4,250 does not represent a solid support level.
3. Summary
By referencing the March and continuous contracts, the next significant support level is likely between RM4,120 and RM4,150. Until this support range is breached, the overall trend can be described as long-term bullish with short-term bearish corrections.
Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) Technical Analysis: A Short-Term BearishThe analysis did not align with initial expectations. It was anticipated that the weekly chart of the FCPO1! continuous contract would stabilize around the 4500 support level, but this week it dropped to 4374. From the weekly chart perspective, while the 4500 level has been breached, the overall upward trend structure remains intact. The next support level will likely be around 4120. If this level is also breached, it will be necessary to reassess whether the major trend has shifted from bullish to bearish.
Looking at the FCPO1! daily chart, the overall trend leans bearish. A clear double top can be observed, along with a neckline breakout, a retest of the resistance line, and a distinct downward wave. Although there may be some support around the 4250 level, it is unlikely to be strong support, as both the weekly and daily charts of the March contract do not indicate any significant support at this level.
By referencing both the March contract and the continuous contract, the next strong support level should be around 4120–4150. As long as this support level holds, I consider the trend to be long-term bullish but short-term bearish.
Based on the daily chart trend of the March contract, it is likely that prices will decline in the short term to test the 4120–4150 support level. Therefore, I believe this is a good opportunity to enter a short position on the spread.
Currently, the support level for MAR25-JUN25 is around 240 points, with the next support level at 190–200 points if 240 is breached. If an entry can be made above 250 points on Monday, each contract is expected to yield a 50-point profit, amounting to RM2,500 in total.
2)FCPO : prediction on 6th Jan 2025possible reversal for fcpo-march on 6th jan 2025...
Disclaimer : "I am not guru and I am working hard to make profit same as u. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. "
FCPO WEEK 52 2024: BEARISH.FCPO is bearish. This is a short week and I'm expecting price to make a retracement before proceeding lower. So it is bearish this week and probably it would be bearish as well going into next week.
FCPO WEEK 51 2024: BULLISH.A retracement followed by a bullish key reversal and an inside bar candle usually a good indication that price would continue higher. Thus next week I'm expecting a higher price for FCPO and TP should be around 5200. However if price failed to move forward beyond the area of 5065 then there is a possibility that price might go lower. For now it is bullish.
FCPO Daily Analysis for 9 December 2024: Bullish Momentum BuildsFCPO market on 9 December 2024 reinforced its bullish trajectory, offering opportunities for both swing and intraday traders. With strong support levels holding firm and visible resistance zones being tested, tomorrow’s trading session could provide high-probability setups. By leveraging technical analysis and adhering to sound risk management principles, traders can navigate the market with confidence.
Whether you’re targeting swing trades or quick intraday scalps, the FCPO market continues to exhibit promising potential as it marches toward year-end. Stay vigilant, remain disciplined, and trade with a plan.
See full analysis on Master FCPO Trading website.
