FCPO - Golden ratio in playFollowing up on the resistance at the upper channel- interestingly, a golden ratio objective appears to cause resistance.
Are we at a crossroad???
FCPO1! trade ideas
FCPO - Are we near a crucial area???Upper Parallel Channel displaying resistance from a post triangle thrust lasting 3 years achieving 279% gain larger than '03-'08 bull run of 262%.
With a probable 3 year cycle high looming in 2023 , it should draw close attention to market intention amidst the inflationary environment
and risks in rising rates.
FCPO TRADING : 323) uptrend but 9th May22 news !this is haidojo and the number is 323 ...
In the whole April, thr were another 2 Double-Tops (DT) on 27th Apr22 and 29th Apr22, hitting as high as 7132 and 7229! Now, the price could be a "churning process" before leaping onto a higher ground. Of course, this could be wrong bcox we have the "9th May" curse. This so-called curse actually comes from the war-infested region in the North and any news frm thr. Whether the war would escalate or stop. SO it is a "dead" or "alive" situation. The safest way to play this is wait for the "doomsday" to over and watch the technical analyst to tell u what to do after that.
Following the trend is still the safest route so watch out for "long on the dip" with support near 6400 and 6310. This is not a recommendation for buy or sell but it is what I am watching out for my own trading plan. I actually hold buying already and this is not a signal channel and I am not giving signal trading service. SO dun treat this like one. Careful with the news which could damage ur trades.
That's all for the update today.
*plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck*
resistance : 6650-7080 (6310 possible reversal point)
lower support : 5380 (daily critical support)
support : 6310-6400
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only…
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
FCPO direction TF15mBased on pitcfork.. price normally bounced to the midlle line then pullback to the edge line..
its just my 2cents ideas
CPO time to Test 5800?Technical View:
1. Long Black Bar formed last week, which indicates reversal signs from current uptrend
2.Stochastic K% line crossed down in both daily and weekly chart, as well as divergence signals in both which indicates reversal signal
We expect market will continued facing selling force amid expectation of improving in global palm oil supply.
Suggestion Trade:
Short if stay below 6335
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6554
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 6116 TP2 5679
Long if stay above 6900
Target Stop Loss (support level) 6681
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 7119 TP2 7556
** Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risk **
CPO Consolidate 6500-7100Technical View:
1. Bullish bar formed last week, which indicates strong uptrend signal
2. Stochastic K% line crossed up in both daily and weekly chart which indicates uptrend signal
Upon shortened trading week, we expect market profit taking to be continued. Market likely to be quiet and consolidate within range of 6500-7100
Suggestion Trade:
Long if stay above 7100
Target Stop Loss ( support level ) 6886
Target Profit level ( resistance level )
TP1 7314 TP2 7743
Short if stay below 6400
Target Stop Loss ( resistance level ) 6614
Target Profit level ( support level )
TP1 6186 TP2 5757
Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks.
Happy Trading!! Cheers.
** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
Reversal or Uptrend for CPO? Technical View:
1. Doji or inside bar formed after long white bar last week, which indicates market forces remained uncertain and likely to have reversal
2.Stochastic showed mixed signals.
As K line crossing up fr0m the level of 51 in weekly chart which indicates uptrend signal.
While in daily chart showed K line crossed down from the overbought level which indicate sell signal.
Thus, we expect selling force with immediate resistance level at 6550, before it able to sustain for uptrend.
Suggestion Trade:
Short if stay below 6150
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6344
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 5956 TP2 5568
Long if stay above 6625
Target Stop Loss (support level) 6431
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 6819 TP2 7207
Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks.
Happy Trading!! Cheers.
fcpo if price still sustain below 6366.
my projection the price will drop to 6178
6178 confluence with SnR level (RbS)
Will CPO Back to 7000?Last week market extended gains as expected and closed higher at 6468. Congratulations if you have refer to our trading plan to Long above 6030 and took profit at 6232.
Let’s have a look on the factors that impact on palm oil prices last week.
1. India’s palm oil purchases are expected to increase for a 3rd month as traders and importers are preferring the tropical commodity over expensive soybean and sunflower oils
2. sign of peace talks are diminishing after Russian President made his first public comments that Ukraine had hit a dead end on negotiation. It would also mean that the war will continue to grind on.
3. Besides, Adverse weather in U.S. plains states raise new round of supply fear offset weak demand from China due to surge in Covid-19 case
4. Supply losses in sunflower oil has led to demand surge on other edible demand ahead of Muslim’s festive next month.
5. Soybean oil extended gains as Argentina truckers agreed to call off a strike that paralysed soy and grains transport in the country since Monday.
Truckers and official agreed to have a virtual meeting in order to reach agreement to end protest by truck owners demanding higher freight rates.
6. Strong crude oil prices after position covered and news that the European Union might phase in a ban on Russian oil imports.
This make palm more attractive option for biodiesel feedstock.
Technical View:
1. Long White bar formed indicates bullish signal in the market.
2.Stochastic showed mixed signals.
As K line crossing up in weekly which indicates uptrend signal. While K line reached overbought level at 91.48, which indicate market likely to face selldown
We expect market may face selling force with immediate resistance level at 6700, before it resume its uptrend.
Suggestion Trade:
Long if stay above 6485
Target Stop Loss (support level) 6280
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 6690 TP2 7100
Short if stay below 5900
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6105
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 5695 TP2 5285
*Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks*
Long FCPO1!Idea long untuk FCPO1!
1.Elliot wave menunjukkan FCPO1! sedang menyiapkan subwave3 dalam Wave yang lebih besar.
2. Bullish diverence jelas kelihatan di timeframe 1H
3. Clear uprtrend with strong push
entry swing position selepas gap up and close above ma200 timeframe 1H, low possible setup after retrace di MA20 timeframe 1H (420 tick win)
Will CPO Resume Uptrend after 6100?Technical View:
1. Again Inside bar formed at support level of 5500 which indicates reversal signal, that market likely to resume uptrend.
2.Stochastic showed K line moving slightly below middle level of 50 in both daily and weekly chart which indicates market may move in sideway or ranging.
We expect market may in range to higher if market able to break and stay above 6100 level.
Suggestion Trade:
Long if stay above 6030
Target Stop Loss (support level) 5828
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 6232 TP2 6636
Short if stay below 5525
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5727
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 5323 TP2 4919
Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks.
Happy Trading!! Cheers.
FCPO LOVER?1) Structure is making LH and LL. Which is market shows the structure is downtrend.
2) So Im looking that price will touch "5825" before drop because at that area have drop base drop zone.
3) It also confluence with fibonacci level 78.6%.
4) My target that price will drop to "5675"
FCPO TRADING : 321) falling off frm sky?this is haidojo and the number is 321 ...
After hitting a double high on 2nd March22, 7108 and 9th MArch 22 ,7268 (so far, this is the record high), fcpo price has broken into NSL(New Structure Low) and since then fcpo market has been playing sideway frm 15th till 31st March22, ranging frm 5700- 6100...only on last Friday, another NSL---5477 is formed...so , we can conclude that the market is in downtrend now...Next level of support to watch out is at 5380 which is also the support level for daily uptrend. If this level is broken, both daily and hourly charts are in downtrend and we could see some fierce pull-down to happen...
Following the trend is still the safest route so watch out for "short on rebound" with resistance near 5700 and 6040. This is not a recommendation for buy or sell but it is what I am watching out for my own trading plan. However, not all gloom and doom, fcpo-june should see some reversal to happen if it could break abv 6100 and stay there / move higher.
That's all for the update today.
*plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck*
resistance : 6040-6100 (reversal of bear to bull)
support : 5380 (daily critical support)
lower support : 5050-5220
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only…
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
Downtrend Signs in CPO?Market posted weekly losses and closed at 5566.
Let’s have a look on what caused the market move.
1.Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine raised hopes for ceasefire as Russia claimed they will scale down their military operation around Kyiv, which will further de-escalate the conflict between both countries.
2. On the other hand, Russia said it will ban export of sunflower seeds and impose export quota of sunflower oil which may force foreign buyers to substitute with other edible oils.
3. China announced fresh 9-day lockdown in Shanghai and Southern part of Shenzhen region to tackle with latest COVID-19 outbreaks which resulted lower demand for cooking oil in food and beverage industry
4. Weakness in crude oil prices after reports that the White House announced to release 1 mil barrels per day for next 6 months from Strategic Petroleum Reserve to calm spiking in oil and gas prices.
5. Soybean oil prices plunged as market reacted to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts US 2022 soybean planting at record high of 91 mil acres.
6. Malaysia Palm Oil Board, Malaysia Palm Oil Council, Fitch Rating and Bank Negara Malaysia shared similar outlook on palm oil production. Factors that influencing in palm prices including slow recovery in production as easing of labor shortage.
While heavier rainfall early this year helped to moisture and increase oil palm yields in latter part of the year.
MPOB forecast for 2022:
Production increase by 4.9% y/y or 19m tonnes
Exports increase by 9.2% y/y or 17m tonnes
End stockpiles increase by 21% y/y or 1.95m tons
Technical View:
1. Long bearish bar formed after broken previous week low at 5695 which indicates sell signal.
2.Stochastic showed down sign in both weekly and daily chart.
We expect market may bounce before further drop with immediate support level at 5200.
Suggestion Trade:
Short if stay below 5500
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5707
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 5293 TP2 4879
Long if stay above 6050
Target Stop Loss (support level) 5843
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 6257 TP2 6671
Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks.
Happy Trading!! Cheers.
Will CPO Sustain Above 6300 to Resume Uptrend?Market posted weekly gains and closed at 6027 after failed to sustain above 6300.
Let’s have a look on what were the key factors move the market.
1. Rally in crude oil prices after an attack on Saudi oil facilities by Yemen’s Iran aligned Houthi Group over the weekend and caused jittery in global oil market.
2. Rising in soybean oil prices as Russia’s troop in Ukraine seizing and destroying agricultural machinery, fertiliser, seeds and fuel stocks. Furthermore, Argentina government raised their export tax for soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 33%.
However, weaker than expected export demand for palm oil and reversed in crude oil prices limited upside for palm oil prices
Traders remained cautious ahead of the summit meeting between US president and NATO allies amid high expectations that US will announce a series of new economic sanctions against Russia
Technical View:
1.Inside bar formed which indicates reversal signal that market likely to resume uptrend
2.Stochastic showed mixed signal as K% line is moving down in weekly but crossed up in daily chart.
We expect market may move higher if market able to break and sustain above 6300.
Suggestion Trade:
Long if stay above 6250
Target Stop Loss (support level) 6043
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 6457 TP2 6871
Short if stay below 5800
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6007
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 5593 TP2 5179
Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks.
Happy Trading!! Cheers.
Long positionCrude Palm oil May 2022
Buy limit at supply zone 6204, and support line 5960
Stoploss: 5726
Take profit: 6915
FCPO Support at 5,000? CPO plunged and closed sharply lower at 5629 last week.
What caused palm oil prices deep drop last week?
1. Indonesia announced surprised policy U-turn to remove export volume restrictions on palm oil products and raised its export levy from $375 per tons to $675 per tons.
Indonesia government also subsidize bulk cooking oil starting from 1st April 2022 to cool prices and maintain purchasing power.
2. Argentina imposed new export restrictions that temporarily suspended exports for soybean flour and oil amidst rumours if is planning to hike taxes due to surge in primary material costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
3. Weakness in Crude oil prices as traders focus on the progress of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine which may reduce demand for biofuel
4. China sold their cooking oil reserves as buyers favor more on discounted SBO over palm oil as premium products. Besides, resurgence of coronavirus fears in China dampening market sentiment
5. Soybean oil declined on positive weather for crops in South America ease dry crops.
Technical View:
1. Obviously Long Black bar formed after palm oil prices deep drop last week which indicates sell signal.
2. Stochastic K% line is moving down in weekly and daily chart which indicates sell signals. However K% near to oversold in daily chart, which indicates market likely to rebound before further drop.
We expect market may bounce if touch on immediate support level at 5365 before further drop.
Suggestion Trade:
Short if stay below 5600
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5803
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 5397 TP2 4991
Long if stay above 6300
Target Stop Loss (support level) 6097
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 6503 TP2 6909
Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks.
Happy Trading!! Cheers.
CPO Unstoppable Rocket? Or…. Ranging?What’s other factors would continue to move palm oil prices?
1. India imports hit 12-months low on sky high prices in CPO. This may led to demand further decline as buyers are price sensitive as it relies on imports for 60% of its needs. Currently, India rely on existing stockpiles and incoming domestic rapeseed crop to meet domestic demand
2. Revision of export restriction from Indonesia as food protectionism grows. Companies need to allocate 30% of exports for home market. Government are taking steps to safeguard domestic food supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
3. Malaysia announced, the border restrictions is entering endemic phase start from 1st of April 2022 , which also means that more foreign workers arrive in May and June.
4. Soybean oil lower after USDA (United States of Department Agriculture) monthly forecasts showed world soybean supplies above expectations.
5. Declined in crude oil prices reduce demand for biodiesel blending.
Technical View:
1. Again shooting star formed as profit taking after touched on historical high at 7268 which indicate sell signal.
2. Stochastic K% line is moving up in weekly and crossed up in daily chart which indicates market likely to resume its uptrend
We have mixed signals this week. We expect market may move within range of 6500-7100.
Suggestion Trade:
Short if stay below 6600
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6783
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 6417 TP2 6051
Long if stay above 7000
Target Stop Loss (support level) 6817
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 7183 TP2 7549
** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
FCPO AP.. TF15It is just my 2 cents point of view.. maybe today price still rangging between the line..
weekly direction FCPOFCPO weekly direction.. it seem to break the trendline or keep moving upward
just my 2 cents
CPO Continue above 7000? Or Ready for Correction?FCPO declined by nearly 8% on last Friday and closed at 6276 as profit taking took place, but posted 2nd weekly gains after touched on historical high at 7108.
So, what’s make palm oil now the costlier edible oil among the 4 major edible oils?
Global commodities rallied following EU bans certain Russian banks from SWIFT bank payment system which aimed to stuttering the Russia economy and introduces further restrictions.
The war expected to disrupt the processing and export of Ukraine oilseeds crops for at least 1 month and curb flow of sunflower seed to the European Union.
2. India’s reserve is facing a depletion in stocks levels with a lack of shipments of sunflower oil from the Black Sea Region.
India requested Indonesia temporary reduce their biodiesel blending rules and increase the exports to mitigate disrupted supplies of sunflower oil.
3. Rising concerns on adequate palm supply levels for post-Ramadan restocking.
While expectations of higher productions in coming months as high output cycle kicks in and government also announced new migrant workers to work in plantation sector capped gains.
4. Soybean oil prices closed lower as profit taking and rainfall in Brazil and Argentina eased dry weather conditions.
Technical View:
1. Shooting star formed at resistance level of 7100, which indicates market losing uptrend momentum and also a reversal signal
2. Stochastic K% line is crossing down in both weekly and daily chart which indicates downtrend signal
We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5825
Suggestion Trade:
Short if stay below 6200
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6365
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 6035 TP2 5705
Long if stay above 6800
Target Stop Loss (support level) 6635
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 6965 TP2 7295
**Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks**
FCPO continue 6400 or Short Term Correction?FCPO set their biggest weekly gains in more than 9 months despite a sharp drop on Friday, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine stoked worries about global edible oil supply.
I believe who traded last week hopefully you were enjoy the roller coaster ride in the market.
For your information, Ukraine is a major key supplier of grains and oilseeds globally, any further threats to trade will shift demand for other vegetable oil such as SBO and CPO.
As we all knew that the unresolved Ukraine crisis may further erode the supply of vegetable oil, grains, crude and natural gas due to the grain flows disruption in Black Sea export region with all transportation avenue were disrupted by military operation.
Besides, India stopped buying sunflower oil following ports suspended operation on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India pivot to alternate oils could further support Malaysian palm oil and US soyoil.
On the other hand, surging in COVID cases also keep palm oil prices elevated for 1H2022 as shortage of labour and supplies.
Furthermore, worsening yields in Argentina and Brazil pushed importers to buy from alternative supplier.
Technical View:
Market uptrend remains with immediate support at 5825.
Stochastic K% line is crossing down at overbought zone in both weekly and daily chart which indicates reversal signal
We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5625
Suggestion Trade:
Short if stay below 5885
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6023
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 5747 TP2 5471
Long if stay above 6200
Target Stop Loss (support level) 6062
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 6338 TP2 6614
** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
