FEPO1! trade ideas
ROCThe ROC indicator is plotted against zero, with the indicator moving upwards into positive territory if price changes are to the upside, and moving into negative territory if price changes are to the downside.NA rising ROC above zero typically confirms an uptrend while a falling ROC below zero indicates a downtrend.BNow ROC is hover near Zero, so its signal for downtrend for this FCPO.
FCPO 27/10/22Global Production data/news
• Chicago Board of Trade grain and soybean futures strengthened on Wednesday as weakness in the U.S. dollar raised hopes for improved export demand for American crops.(Reuters)
• WTI crude futures rose above $87 per barrel on Wednesday, extending gain in the previous session as a weaker dollar boosted the appeal of greenback-priced commodities even after government data pointed to a large build in US crude stockpiles.
• DOW Continue to rise in the middle of earning season and the expectation of soft US data this week signaling that aggressive monetary tightening in recent months is already impacting the economy.
Remarks
• FCPO daily chart still consolidating near the 100EMA and weekly resistance zone.
• 1H chart consolidation zone still in effect since last week and triangle pattern created shows uncertainty in price direction.
• Price rebound from 50MA in 1H chart. Indicating buyer still around to support.
Short Term Trend : Sideways
Trading Plan.
• Long –
o Price maintains supported above 1H Resistance zone. If price gap up, safer to wait for small retracement. TP1: 4250 TP2: 4300 SL:4170.
o Price unable to breakdown and rejection on the 1H Support zone. TP1:4155 SL:4050
• Short - breakdown 1H Resistance zone, TP1: 4100, TP2:4060 SL:4190
Disclaimer: This is just my IDEA on the market, not a suggestion to open any trade. Please do not follow without any personal due diligence on the market.
FCPO : Corrective Phase durationIt is good to know the entire bull market lasted 1024 calendar days(geometric sequence) from 10 July 2019- 29 April 2022 because it can provide a time perspective of the corrective phase.
A high probable 5 wave down sequence surfaced postulating a potential zig zag.
Its also interesting to note the 5 wave down took 152 days (14.8%) before rebounding up.
Prices at 38.2% and 50% of its time projection should be worth noting.
To date, a 3 wave structure is likely completed or near completion and would have to see how the market unfold going forward.
FCPO Week Review 22/10/22Primary Trend: Consolidation ( Weekly)
Resistance Zone = 4500-4200
Support Zone = 3700-3300
Short term Trend: slightly Bullish
Remarks:
• Reversal head and shoulder pattern on daily chart, TP will be within weekly resistance zone.
• RSI trading above daily DMZ(60-40)
• Daily Trading above 20 and 50 MA, nearing 100 EMA
• End of week open interest : 204192 with 50175 contracts on January,2023
Weekly Global Production data/news (Sources : TRADINGECONOMICS.COM)
• Oil prices were little changed this week, as hopes of higher Chinese demand and output cuts by OPEC+ offset lingering fears about a potential global recession-driven demand downturn. OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day in November.A looming European Union ban on Russian crude also exacerbated concerns about tight supplies.
• Chicago soybean have been trading below $14 per bushel for the past three weeks, hovering close to the two-month low of $13.6 hit on October 6th as fast progress in the US harvest signaled a strong supply to replenish inventories.
25/10/2022 Trading Plan,
• Long
o if breakout above the 1H consolidation zone,TP:4260 SL:4160
o sign of any price rejection on the support zone, TP1:4170, TP2:4240. SL: 4060
• Short if breakdown support zone, TP1: 4040, TP2:3980. SL:4095
Disclaimer: This is just my IDEA on the market, not a suggestion to open any trade. Please do not follow without any personal due diligence on the market.
FCPO TRADING : 335) dropped below and climbing back intothis is haidojo and the number is 335...
This is a sequence from no 330 and no 333, titled "bracketing the market". As the story goes, last month in Sept, we had a breakout to the downside whr fcpo dropped below the support of 3500-3600. To follow-up what happened yesterday, fpco-dec22 has created what I call as "Higher-High-Higher Close" in hourly chart. Which u could see in the diagram. SO reversal is confirmed. We shall wait for retracement to get in long. That is what I am going to do lahh. Another thing is, 3900 is a critical resistance and also the previous "Lower-High" in daily chart. I expect the pullback is getting its first strong wave of resistance near this level. The latest low was 3223 and this has breached below the critical support of 3500-3600...Now, the price is fighting back into this zone and passed tru it...touching 3800 this morning... so retracement might get back into 3650 - 3700 region...or lower near 3600-3620 region...wait for the come-back and ride the "bad boy"...
**plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck**
resistance : 3900
current support : 3650-3700
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… this is not a signal service channel and DON'T TREAT IT LIKE ONE!
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
FCPO - Major Pivot approaching ??Market is always in a state of flux and some adjustments have been made as it unfolds. Could it be a bottoming of the corrective phase as we approach the 0.618 level??
Welcome any views even with fundamental inputs. Looks like the fundamental aspect have played out from 2nd half 2022 and are we at that late stage of this phase??