ABUS Swing $ABUS have a high evaluation above 5.5$ while its currently trading at 3.6 $ expecting profiting from $MRNA and $PFE patent royalties , currently touching rising trend line and it could be a good entry to start accumulating
ABUS trade ideas
ABUS 6 month channelArbutus is on a wild ride of late, huge volatility has come into it since Nov as the vaccines came closer to being deployed, I have done a huge amount of DD on this stock and I am very very confident of 3X min by mid 2021.
Brief outline of what is going on:
Main catalyst in the coming years is Hep B vaccine/cure that may be able to dose as little as every 12 weeks. Arbutus entering Phase trials in Q1 2021 it looks like.
Also teamed up with Assembly Bio who are in phase 2 trial with their candidate, will have results with this one sooner than their own I would imagine. These are both long prospects.
Reason for the volatility lately is that Arbutus have an ongoing patent battle with Moderna, so far Moderna are losing.
Covid vaccine has to be delivered into the cell, in order to do this the RNA has to be protected for long enough to make it from the syringe and into the cells of the body. This is done by basically by wrapping it in fat, not just any old fat though it is a combination of lipids at very specific mol percentages that allow it to work, you can read more about it here www.ipwatchdog.com
Arbutus owns 16% of Genevant and Roivant owns the other 84%
Genevant have sub-licenced out the 069 patented LNP to bioNtech/Pfizer for their vaccine, so far there has been no public comment on what that deal involves, I did some conservative numbers using 'best guess' figures from other agreements to figure out Arbutus' royalty
Qualifiers:
-BioNtech and Pfizer may well have agreed to split the royalty but I have not seen anything public stating they have so I have not factored it in. If they have it obviously doubles the royalty.
-I have given a figure of 10% for Genevant's cut of the sub-licence, I have very little idea of what this is and welcome anyone with insider knowledge to comment on this, I am taking what I consider to be a conservative figure, this may in fact be a lot higher, I have seen others suggest a figure of 35%?
1.3 billions doses X 20 dollars per dose = 26 billion dollar revenue
26Bn/2 = 13 billion (Biontech and Pfizer are 50/50 split on the vaccine)
Abus gets single digit royalties of sub-licensee sales or 20% of Genevant cut whichever is lowest, I am assuming a 10% share for Genevant for
13B X 3% = 380m (could be 780m)
1.3B (10% of 13Bn) x 20% = 260 milion (could be 780m)
This will probably appear as a line in a submission to the SEC at some point or might come up at a conference call in the New Year but it would be a massive catalyst if you bear in mind that current market cap of the entire company is about 300 - 350 million.
Moderna are in violation of the patent and are trying to bully Genevant and Arbutus at the moment, this may work in the short term but long term they will also owe patent royalties to ABUS of a simlar amount as Pfizer.
There is also a question over the LNP that Curevac are using but we can just leave that parked for the moment.
If and when this comes to fruition it should boost the share price to about 12 - 15 dollars. This would provide the operating cash for the Phase 2 trial and hopefully by 2022 the ATM selling by the company could stop altogether which would also boost the share price.
Looks like the share price will follow the steeper newer channel and the next major spike will be to about 6 bucks ... all in all an interesting stock
ABUS looks ready for a move up Trading in a channel. I like the channel, The MACD looks like its turning to the upside, we are near a bottom of the channel, volume is low but we are near the 20 and 50 day MA...
First target is at 4.95 - 5.00
This is where I would be taking most of my profits and re-assessing.
Tight stop loss or monitoring is necessary.
ABUS set up$3.60 arrea was heavy resistance, now it's strong support.
Touching trend line and Over sold
RSI tuning green, prepping for another run up.
Yahoo Finance says it's 26% under valued.
Looks like a decent entry point with a SL below $3.60
Heavy Resistance at $4.50 and could turn into a H+S
How low will A bus go Hi traders . NASDAQ:ABUS
Following this ticker for some time and looking on play scenarios .
News out there on patent etc are currently not in play IMO .
But over all company has good fundamentals and we will try yo make some profits on it .
There are some fundamental flaws and areas selected on chart and are my interest zones . I personally would like to pick some shares up between $1.80 and $2. And I think that's very possible .
60.9M float makes this ticker to move on average 9-11% D so daily scalps are some way in play as well . But I have points in mind with this play and will focus on that . First zone that I think I can get that is bounce from is 2.65 2 .90 zone . I expecting stronger bounce from that zone but nothing is guarantied however if we do come out strong from it I will target upper and mid $4 that would be first play .
If we go through that zone with out significant push I will be focusing on area mentioned before and at that point I will try to come up with targets after we get there . Over all mid 4$ are my first target and after that all the way to $12 yes 12 . I might take weeks or months to get there so patience is a KEY
Hit that like if you like my approach and I wish you happy happy trading .
See you next time .
P.
$ABUS can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Arbutus Biopharma Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of a cure for patients suffering from chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the United States.
The demand for shares of the company looks higher than the supply.
This and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a long position from $4,97
stop-loss — $4,25.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
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ABUS Brekout Stock Alert UpdateBREAKOUT STOCK ALERT UPDATE
$ABUS - Arbutus Biopharma Corporation - Common Stock
Initial Alert Price: $3.73
Price High: $5.23
% Gains/Losses: 40.21%
(40% More Than Expected)
Stop Loss Limit: $4.97
Looking for ABUS to bounce through the $4.10 Levels of Resistance and retest the $5.00 Levels once again, at least $4.50. #Breakout #Stocks #Trading #Investing #Alerts #StockMarket #Daily #News #Today
Follow for more trade alerts and information & egister your account for Instant Alerts by clicking the link in our signature.
ABUS Brekout Stock AlertBREAKOUT STOCK ALERT
$ABUS - Arbutus Biopharma Corporation - Common Stock
Initial Alert Price: $3.73
Potential Price: $4.50
Potential Gains: 21%
Stop Loss Limit: $3.54
Looking for ABUS to bounce through the $4.10 Levels of Resistance and retest the $5.00 Levels once again, at least $4.50. #Breakout #Stocks #Trading #Investing #Alerts #StockMarket #Daily #News #Today
Follow for more trade alerts and information & egister your account for Instant Alerts by clicking the link in our signature.
ridethepig | Long $ABUS for an 80% move...Another single stock opportunity that is worth building a bridge over; $ABUS (Arbutus Biopharma) an excellent and cheap shelter for the next chapter in covid flows.
The beauty of choice! It is interesting as all covid vaccines will have to RNA IP .. this is a convincing driver.
As well as creating a shelter, use the intimately linked highs to add and build more on the position once it starts working. I am looking for an +80% move to the upside over the coming weeks.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Get on ABUSArbutus Biopharma is an interesting stock. There's a lot to know about it.
First of all they are trying to find a functional cure of HepB, this is called AB-729 and it is in the late stage 1 trials. They have announced results from a single dose study which were VERY positive and we are awaiting results from multi-dose part of the trial which should be announced around 13-15 Nov. There is every indication that these will also be positive.
Arbutus is currently evaluating AB-836 for the treatment of chronic HBV infection. By inhibiting assembly of the viral capsid, AB-836 effectively blocks viral replication.
They also have a lot of other stuff around RNAi and several partnered programs.
Genevant partnership... ABUS has exclusively licenced it's patented delivery LNP delivery system to Genevant. Genevant is a company set up in conjunction with Roivant sciences. Biopharmaceutical companies developing nucleic acid therapeutics today include companies singularly focused on individual treatment modalities. Through its proprietary delivery platforms, Genevant is able to pursue mRNA, RNAi, and gene editing modalities and select the optimal approach for any given disease. By 2020, Genevant aims to have 5 to 10 RNA programs in the clinic targeting a range of genetic disorders with limited or no treatment options.
In addition to its equity interest in Genevant, Arbutus is entitled to royalties on future sales of products enabled by Arbutus’ LNP and ligand conjugate delivery technologies.
Genevant then went and signed with BionTech a strategic agreement to use their LNP delivery, Biontech partnered with Pfizer to make a billion doses of Covid vaccines ... can you see where I'm going here?
Royalties will come flooding in once the vaccine gets released but few people know that it leads back to a company with a market cap of 280m. Imagine what significant income does to a company of that size and the effect on share price.
And then there is the Moderna link ... complicated one this but basically Moderna had brought ABUS to court more than once now to try and get their 069 patent nullified. They have lost and are appealing it again. The body of opinion is that Moderna are using the ABUS LNP delivery without permission and have appealed to waste time again. Unfortunately the court decision may not be made til next year but the Patent board has already advised that Moderna do not have a case and the appeal will be overturned. If and when that happens then Moderna will owe massive royalties because all of it's pipeline is based on this LNP delivery.
This is all without mentioning ABUS own efforts at a covid vaccine.
So we have a couple of scenarios.
Good news on phase 1/b HBV target price of 3.5 - 4.5
People to realise that royalties are coming in from Pfizer vaccine target 3.5 - 4.5
Patent dispute to have positive outcome and Moderna to admit they use it in their pipeline target 7 - 10
For all three to come together would push it way above 10 .. prob into the high teens.
Is this a likel scenario in the next year .. yes I would say it is, it is being heavily manipulated at the moment and it looks like big players are accumulating, price is currently 2.79 and I am hoping to add to my position tomorrow as I believe this is the cheapest price you will see for years. I think somehwere around 500% upside in 12 months.
Reality check is that most analysts do not agree with me but their price forecast for 12 months is between 4 - 8 with an average somewhere around 6 but even at that it would be over 100% upside in 12 months.
As always do your own DD, I am not a professional
Primed for entry?Fib level as of what i see now at .786 looks to be right here. its also where prior resistance may turn into support for the price. also the 200 sma has had time to catch up to the price of the stock and can be another indicator for the patient people on the sidelines that the chart has leveled off for now.
Moderna in Trouble - ABUS Wins Lawsuit Tied to COVID-19 DrugArbutus Biopharma Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of a cure for patients suffering from chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the United States. Its HBV product pipeline consists of AB-836, a capsid inhibitor that has the potential to inhibit HBV replication by preventing the assembly of functional viral capsids; and AB-423, which is in pre-clinical studies. The company also develops RNAi drugs, which utilize the RNA interference pathway, allows for a novel approach to treating disease. Its RNAi HBV candidates are designed to reduce hepatitis B surface antigen expression in patients chronically infected with HBV. In addition, it develops AB-729, a second generation RNAi therapeutic targeted to hepatocytes; HBV RNA destabilizer, an orally active agent that cause the destabilization of HBV RNAs, which leads to RNA degradation and to reduction in HBsAg levels. Further, the company engages conducting a Phase 1a/1b clinical trial and several pre-clinical and investigational new drug-enabling studies to evaluate proprietary HBV therapeutic agents, together with standard of care therapies, and in combination with each other. It has strategic alliance, licensing, and research collaboration agreements with Marqibo; Gritstone Oncology, Inc.; and Acuitas Therapeutics, Inc. The company was formerly known as Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corporation and changed its name to Arbutus Biopharma Corporation in July 2015. Arbutus Biopharma Corporation is headquartered in Warminster, Pennsylvania.
AFTER HOURS BREAKING NEWS
Moderna stock tumbled late Thursday after the biotech lost a patent battle that may jeopardize the financial future of its coronavirus vaccine.
Moderna (MRNA) challenged patents held by Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) covering lipid nanoparticle, or LNP, technology. Lipid nanoparticles are the delivery system for messenger RNA drugs, including Moderna's coronavirus vaccine, which is known as mRNA-1273.
Despite the company's contention, the ruling could cut into profits on any Moderna drug, including mRNA-1273, says SVB Leerink analyst Mani Foroohar.
"Revenue concentration in (the coronavirus vaccine) is a central feature of the investment case for Moderna shares," Foroohar said. "Any meaningful royalty burden could hamper Moderna's pricing flexibility and margin profile vs. other players in the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine market."
Foroohar called the decision in Arbutus' favor "a disappointing turn for Moderna."
"This decision opens the door to a fascinating (and likely protracted) period of investor controversy and debate around the implications of any potential infringement of claims by Arbutus regarding Moderna's use of Lipid Nanoparticle delivery technology, and any further actions Moderna may take to defend their own (intellectual property) position and freedom to operate," he said.
NEWS: www.investors.com
Where's ABUS going? To $100.00 ...???
On the monthly chart, it looks like $9.00 might be the next stop..? At this point, I am not sure if there is a top right now for ABUS.
The news is huge for ABUS and could entitle ABUS to billions in profits and revenue from the COVID-19 vaccine.
Intelligent comments welcome.
DISCLAIMER
The Content herein is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
ABUS - Clear for TakeoffAll,
Amazing setup just need to make sure it holds.
Buy in 1.26 (unless this breaks above)
Should get some gains if everything goes well.
Golden cross for Arbutus Biopharma Bullish golden cross
Arbutus Biopharma Corp. engages in discovering, developing and commercializing a cure for patients suffering from chronic Hepatitis B virus infection. The company is headquartered in Burnaby, Canada.
