MSCI ACWI LongsThere has been a lot of fund flows into equities over the course of 2024 providing attractive buying opportunities amongst diversified low cost index funds.
ACWI trade ideas
Bearish Wolfe Wave A bearish Wolfe Wave is a technical chart pattern that typically signals a reversal in an upward price trend. The "sweet zone" in a bearish Wolfe Wave refers to the region where the price is expected to reach before reversing its upward movement. When the price enters the sweet zone of a bearish Wolfe Wave, traders may anticipate a potential trend reversal to the downside.
Tracking the China reopening basket: HSI, Copper, KRW and AUDSince early November, when China initially hinted at lifting statewide Covid restrictions, a basket tracking assets linked to the Chinese reopening story has surged by 22%.
In the last 11 weeks, the China reopening basket, which is equally weighted with copper , Korean won , Australian dollar , and the Hang Seng index , has outperformed a global stock market (MSCI ACWI index) benchmark considerably.
The China reopening portfolio has gained 22.3% versus a 6.8% gain of the MSCI All-Country World index since November 1st. Because the total volatility of the China reopening basket has been lower (19.2% compared to 21.8%), the Sharpe ratio has been even more positively skewed (9.61 vs 1.89).
The Hang Seng index, which has climbed by 45% since November, has been the portfolio's best contributor with a weighted return of 11%, followed by copper with a weighted return of 5.3%.
Analyst Thoughts - 01 August 2022Sentiment among risk assets has steadily improved over the short term, driven by traders' expectations of a less aggressive U.S Federal Reserve in light of it's interest rate path i.e. 100bps vs the 75bps that was delivered. Even on the back of this increase, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the 'unusually large' increase which has prompted traders to believe that the rate at which monetary policy is due to change over the coming years will be at a slower pace than initially anticipated. With the bond market already having discounted both a drop in inflation (see the lower prices of commodities) by printing lower yields, as well as well the U.S Dollar unwinding from a 'near overbought' level, risk assets have made a short term recovery from medium term 'near oversold' levels. This has also been driven, in part, by fairly sizeable short positioning among larger traders and investors that has helped to drive the recovery off the lows. On the local market, index has continued to slowly grind higher, albeit at a less aggressive pace, as observed by the indecisive candle structure (a mixture of small bodies and long upper wicks within the short term upward trend). The trend of a lower NPN and PRX, which has been unwinding from overbought levels, has seen funds flow into a broader selection of names, including an extremely oversold Resources sector. Last week I discussed AGL trading around it's 2.5 to 3x it's mean over 200 days. Over the week, the share was higher by 10% with half of those gains coming on Friday with the group having reported it's results the prior day. On a relative basis, we also saw Resources outperform Financials by around 9% off the recent low while money flowed out of PIK back into SHP. Most recent SHP hit my short target of 19300c before rebounding to +22700c late last week. Following the massive NPN/PEX rally over Q2 we could see these name continue to unwind or at best trade in a consolidation phase over the short term. Weighing on these counters may also be the news that Tencent peer Alibaba has been added to an SEC list of Chinese firms facing delisting. This week, the factor in focus will be the July non-farm payrolls data (Friday) while speeches by several FED officials will be closely watched for any clue on the path for monetary policy. In addition ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data should shed light on global economic conditions while policy decisions out of the UK and Australia is due. We will also see earnings season continuing to guide investor decisions with the focus being on management commentary regarding guidance.
#ACWI - All Country world index bounced for now but..The All country World index has bounced once again off the 200 week ma and declining channel support. We have seen an approximate bounce of 8% from the recent lows. However looking deeper at the chart, we are still trading inside the declining channel and I would like to see a close above the $92 pivot level before getting too excited - that would then start to look great from a technical perspective. What concerns me is declining volume over the last few weeks. I would like to see volume increase on the move up which would give me a better clue that the bulls are serious. On the positive the MACD has finally crossed up on the weekly, but will the bulls have enough momentum to keep this going?
To sum this up - i am neither bullish nor bearish - there are some positive signs such as the bounce off the 200day week ma as well as a cross of the MACD, but the bulls have some serious work to do still to announce the end of this bear market. For me, any decent close above the 92 pivot and things will really start looking good. Historically if you look at the chart since 2008 you would notice how often this chart has bounced off the 200week ma so it is definitely a level of importance that the bulls will not want to lose.
Happy trading ^^
iShares MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) Updated Analysis: During Q1 2022, the $100 level represented a key pivot , which if breached, would see global equities begin a downward trend. We have since seen the price of the ETF drift lower, declining by 13% as at Friday's close. An observation of the weekly chart sees global equities having given back 4 weeks worth of gains in one week, with a bearish engulfing candle that sees stocks at their lowest close since November 2020. Applying the 200-week linear regression channel, the price trades at 2.5x it's mean but with poor price action and candle structure which raises the likelihood of further downside.
ACWI All Country just made HHHL; bounced off 2018 MegaphoneACWI just confirmed a med term uptrend when it bounced off 97 support zone (with a long weekly hammer) ,also bounced off the top of the megaphone pattern from 2018 to pandemic low.
Worst case scenario if 97 do not hold. It may go down to 90 to retest the top of a very big upchannel.
Not trading advice
Are we heading for a repeat of last year December?Interesting graph on the MSC I All Country World Index ETF (ACWI). Since March this year, the ACWI traded in a parallel band between $70-$75 for most of the period. Three times during this 7-month period, it tried to breach the resistance, just to see it drop back to the $70 support line again.
It is also important to note that the share price has been trading above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages for most of the time since March, with both the moving averages still looking very bullish.
The share price however breached the resistance level again on 25 October 2019, which saw the share price gaining some proper momentum since then.
For the first time since 23 April, we find the share price back in EXTREME overbought environment (above 70), which was followed by the 1st retracement in May. We can also clearly see how the share price started losing momentum since last week, which if like the previous 3 cycles, could place the share price under pressure soon.
Should we see a pull-back from current levels, could use the previous top ($75) as support level. If I was a short-term trader and I had a long position in the ETF, this will act as my stop-loss, as a break a close below these levels would put as slap-bang in the parallel band. This will bring the 50-day moving average (at $74.51) back into play, with a break and close below this level only seeking support at the 200-day moving average ($72.90). This is currently my first target on the ACWI.
A break a close below this level will most probably try and test $71.65, which if unsuccessful, will bring my 2nd target into play ($70). Only at these levels, I will look at possibly buying again.
For investors who currently got a serious case of FOMO, could consider AMEX:ACWV as a possible alternative to ACWI.
ACWI stuck in range @ major resistance (since early 2018)Risk trends will dictate how the next few days to weeks will play out. The last several times price has reached the $75 it has rejected and retraced to $70. Most recently two pin bar candles have formed back-to-back so the probability of bearish price action has increased significantly. Traders should pay attention to headlines related to trade and fed speak. If there are negative headlines I expect the gap to the downside to fill quickly.
ACWI, iShares Trust MSCI ACWI ETF - Potential BreakoutNASDAQ:ACWI
The price has bounced many times on the level 75.00 forming a clear resistance, and finding in the last period also support on the level 70.00.
In this case, being the leading ETF on the world's leading indices, uncertainty can be perceived in the markets at the moment.
However, it is not a guideline for our operations, but rather a potentially interesting asset to trade in case of a Beakout.
If it were to break up the 77.50 level upwards it could be another level of resistance to overcome, and that is why we will adopt a different risk management as our strategy tells us.
$ACWI bumping up against massive resistanceThe All Country World Index ETF is facing stiff resistance once more at the 75$ level (5th test since Feb 2018). We have had a tremendous rally since the lows seen in December last year, but unless this level can break i would really be cautious chasing world markets. It is clear some US indices have broken to new highs, but the fact that we are still battling to break out on the ACWI ETF gives us an indication that the markets in the rest of the world are lagging those in the US. What also concerns me is the lack of volume seen in the recent rise since the December lows (infact - volume has been declining) as this ETF has moved higher..
