$AFRM - channel breakout and looking for $70AFRM - Stock breaking out of trendline channel on daily time frame. next resistance at $60 and $70. added calls for swing in group. good to add calls above $60 .Stock is strong on indicators.
AFRM trade ideas
New Setup: AFRMAFRM: I have a green setup signal(dot Indictor). I'm looking to enter long near the close of the day if the stock can manage to CLOSE above the last candle highs(white line). If triggered, I will then place a stop-loss below(SL) and a price target above it(TP1-50%,move SL to breakeven). Using the 10SMA as a trailing stop loss.
********
Note: The above setups will remain valid until the stock CLOSES BELOW my set stop-loss level.
AFRM LONGIf Trump’s policies come back into play, it could be a big win for Affirm . Think lower corporate taxes, less red tape for businesses, lower interest rates, all of which would give Affirm a boost. With more people likely to borrow at lower rates and spend more, Affirm could see more transactions on its platform, driving growth. Plus, less regulation means Affirm can expand faster and focus on what it does best. If the economy heats up and consumer spending picks up, AFRM could definitely benefit.
After Break 132 Target. ATH achievable.
$AFRM - trendline bounce- looking for $53AFRM - Stock bouncing off trendline support and breaking downtrend channel on the daily time frame. last few visits to the trendline support have resulted in higher highs and top of the trendline resistance. with earnings coming up next week, looking for pre earnings run up. Stock is strong on indicator looking for calls as long as $45 holds for a move to $53
AFFIRM HOLDINGS (AFRM) Short Trade Setup and AnalysisAFFIRM HOLDINGS (AFRM) on the 15-minute timeframe:
Trade Summary
Position: Short Trade
Entry: $46.84
Stop Loss: $48.47
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $44.84 (Hit)
TP2: $41.59 (Hit)
TP3: $38.34 (Pending)
TP4: $36.33 (Pending)
Technical Analysis
The price action for AFRM has shown a steady downtrend in alignment with the bearish market sentiment. The position was initiated near the entry point of $46.84, with the Risological dotted trendline indicating a continuous bearish pressure, thus validating the short entry.
With TP1 and TP2 already achieved, the price is moving in line with the projected downtrend. The decreasing volume and proximity to the trailing targets suggest that there is further room for downside potential, aiming towards TP3 and TP4.
Market Insights
Volume: 5.59M (below the 30-day average of 9.08M), indicating moderate sell-off interest.
Key Levels:
Day’s Range: $40.63 - $42.47, which reflects a steady decline.
52-Week Range: $16.50 - $52.48, showing that the stock is approaching the lower side of its yearly range.
Upcoming Earnings: In 12 days, which could further influence AFRM’s trend based on market expectations.
This technical setup aligns with the broader market indicators and the prevailing bearish momentum in AFRM. Further downside potential remains viable as the trend continues.
Affirm Holdings Falls! TP1 Hit in Short Trade, Bearish MomentumTechnical Analysis: Affirm Holdings – 15-Minute Timeframe (Short Trade)
Affirm Holdings showed a bearish signal, prompting a short trade entry at 46.84. The price has already reached Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 44.84, confirming the strength of the bearish move.
Key Levels
Entry: 46.84 – The short trade was initiated after identifying bearish momentum.
Stop-Loss (SL): 48.47 – Positioned above resistance to manage risk and protect against upside reversals.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 44.84 – Already achieved, confirming the effectiveness of the trade setup.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 41.59 – The next target if the bearish trend continues.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 38.34 – A further downside target should selling pressure remain strong.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 36.33 – The ultimate target, marking a significant bearish move.
Trend Analysis
The price is trading below the Risological Dotted trendline, which confirms a solid downtrend. With TP1 already met, the continued bearish momentum suggests further downside potential.
The short trade on Affirm Holdings has started well, with TP1 already hit at 44.84. The next targets are within reach if the selling pressure continues, making this trade setup promising for further gains.
Affirm Rose Some 25% in the Past Week. Can Those Gains Hold?“Buy Now, Pay Later" company Affirm Holdings NASDAQ:AFRM has gained some 25% in the roughly one week since reporting fiscal Q4 results -- even though the fintech actually lost money during the period. What do fundamental and technical analysis say might happen next?
Let’s take a look:
Fundamental Analysis
Affirm’s stock had been under pressure for some eight months when the company reported about a week ago (Aug. 28) that it saw red ink in the three months ended June 30.
Affirm recorded a $0.14-per-share loss during the period, but that was about $0.30 smaller than the Street had expected. Meanwhile, revenue grew 47.9% year over year to $659.18 million, which beat analyst forecasts as well.
Forward guidance didn’t appear bad, free cash flow remained positive and the company’s balance sheet seemed solid. Affirm does have $6.575 billion in longer-term debt on the books that the company will ultimately have to deal with, but that’s not today's or even this year's problem.
All of that combined to push AFRM’s stock price up nearly 40% last Thursday and Friday – gains that have mostly held as of this writing even though the broad market (and Affirm) saw a pullback this past Tuesday.
Technical Analysis
Now let's take a look at Affirm’s charts as of Wednesday morning (Sept. 4), starting with a chart showing the stock over the past several months:
Readers will note that a “falling wedge” pattern dominated Affirm’s chart from February up until August. That’s historically a pattern of bullish reversal.
It's safe to say that after already starting to rise in early August, Affirm experienced an acceleration of that reversal in response to last week’s earnings release.
But from there, the stock’s chart gets busy.
Affirm’s recent gap-up is denoted with a purple circle in the chart above. What do we know about unfilled gaps? There’s an old saying that “unfilled gaps don't always fill, but they usually do." That would be a bearish take.
Meanwhile, AFRM’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the top of the chart above) has suddenly moved into overbought territory.
But conversely, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator -- or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines at the bottom of the chart above -- has taken on a sharply bullish posture.
Affirm’s 12-Day Exponential Moving Average (the black line) has risen above Affirm’s 26-Day EMA (the gold line), with both of them in positive territory. That’s historically a bullish sign.
Also note that a histogram of Affirm’s 9-Day EMA (the blue bars at the chart’s bottom) has also risen above the zero bound. That’s traditionally a bullish sign as well, especially when seen in conjunction with the other two typically positive indicators.
Those are a lot of conflicting signals, so let's Zoom in on Affirm’s chart for just the past two months or so to see if we can get a better technical read on the stock:
This chart shows AFRM’s 200-Day Simple Moving Average (the red line above) at $34.87.
This looks like an important level, as the 200-Day SMA is historically the pivot point when a stock comes out of a falling-wedge pattern. Portfolio managers also traditionally add or reduce long-side exposure at a company’s 200-day line.
If AFRM retreats to the 200-day line from here, it could do so while filling in most of its gap and still avoiding contact with its 21-Day EMA (the green line above) and 50-Day SMA (the blue line).
Given the recent gap-up, I would not be surprised if Affirm attempts to fill that gap by testing the 200-Day SMA from above. Should that test fail, past precedence indicates it’s more than likely that the entire gap fills and a second test at the 50-Day SMA line sets up.
However, should AFRM manage to hold its 200-Day SMA, that would traditionally be a bullish sign.
(At the time of this writing, Moomoo Markets Commentator Stephen Guilfoyle had no position in AFRM.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
Trend |Time Frame Conductive | Daily Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
- Signpost
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead
# Position & Risk Reward | 15 Minutes Time Frame
- Measurement on Session
* Retracement | 0.5 & 0.618
* Extension | 0.88 & 1
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
$AFRM – longing for a hug?Looking at a simple trend and channel of CAPITALCOM:AFRM , it is quite clear it is in a downtrend. This begun pretty much on the dot of the start of 2024 and has been consistent ever since. Some positive news today, sending price up 4-5%, far from interrupting the trend. What is interesting is how price has hugged the lower line of the channel numerous times all along, and only twice touched the upper line. It has also pretty much been below the 50 EMA since crossing down, with a few false breaks, and is once again approaching the 50 EMA from below now. This could trigger a push down. It is not unlikely price will seek the lower line once again, however, make note that the last touch was April 16. Not going into fundamentals here, but CAPITALCOM:AFRM presents earnings on Aug 22, and has a history of beating expectations. This could trigger a reaction up. On the other hand, CAPITALCOM:AFRM is seeing more competition from big tech companies, which might affect business, but probably not the next earnings release. So, earnings is an event to pay attention to, however there should be room on the downside before we get to mid/late August. Do your own DD and let me know what you think.
Affirm Holdings ($AFRM) Surge 21% in Thursday Premarket TradingAffirm Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NASDAQ:AFRM ), a leader in the "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) sector, recently posted an impressive surge of 21% in premarket trading, following a stellar earnings report that exceeded analysts' expectations on multiple fronts. This strong performance is a pivotal moment for the company, reflecting both significant fundamental strength and a favorable technical setup.
A Closer Look at Earnings and Growth Metrics
Affirm's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings beat across the board, sending a strong signal to investors about the company's growth trajectory and financial health. The company reported a loss per share of just 14 cents, far better than the 51-cent loss anticipated by analysts. Additionally, revenue came in at $659 million, surpassing the average estimate of $604 million.
These results were bolstered by a 31% year-over-year increase in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) to $7.2 billion, indicating a healthy uptick in consumer demand and transaction volume on Affirm's platform. This growth is even more notable considering the current macroeconomic challenges, including inflationary pressures and a generally cautious consumer environment. The company also reported a 48% year-over-year increase in revenue, coupled with a significant reduction in its net loss, which narrowed from $206 million a year ago to $45.1 million.
Affirm's active merchant count rose to over 300,000, and active consumers grew by 19% to 18.6 million. This increase in both merchant and consumer engagement suggests that the company's value proposition is resonating in the market. CEO Max Levchin highlighted a new target for achieving operating profitability on a GAAP basis by the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, a goal that appears increasingly attainable given the current momentum.
Looking ahead, Affirm projects revenue between $640 million and $670 million for the upcoming quarter, above the $625 million forecast by analysts. This optimistic guidance suggests management's confidence in the company’s ability to maintain its growth trajectory.
Key Drivers of Growth
Affirm (NYSE: NASDAQ:AFRM ) has made several strategic moves that are expected to drive further growth. The company's expanding partnerships with giants like Apple, Amazon, and Shopify are particularly noteworthy. These alliances not only increase Affirm's visibility and accessibility but also position it to benefit from the robust e-commerce growth trends.
For example, the partnership with Apple allows U.S. Apple Pay users to apply for loans directly through Affirm (NYSE: NASDAQ:AFRM ) on their iPhones and iPads, significantly expanding its reach. The planned launch in the UK by the end of this year further diversifies Affirm’s revenue streams and exposes it to new markets, which could be crucial for sustained growth.
Additionally, Bank of America analysts pointed out that potential interest rate cuts could reduce Affirm's funding costs and improve gains on loan sales, which would further enhance its financial performance. The recent decision to move merchants to a 36% APR cap on loans, up from 30% previously, should also act as a tailwind for yield and GMV growth.
Technical Analysis: A Bullish Gap-Up Pattern with Caution
From a technical perspective, Affirm's 21% surge has placed the stock in a classic "gap-up" pattern, where the price jumps significantly higher than its previous close, leaving a visible gap on the stock chart. This is often viewed as a bullish reversal pattern, signifying renewed investor interest and potential for further upside.
However, while this gap-up is encouraging, it also comes with a degree of caution. Stocks that gap up sharply are often considered overbought in the short term, which can lead to a period of consolidation or a pullback as some investors lock in profits. This is particularly relevant given the stock's prior decline of 36% year-to-date, suggesting that while the current momentum is positive, it may not be sustainable without continued strong performance and favorable market conditions.
Challenges Ahead: Navigating Macroeconomic Headwinds
Despite the upbeat results, Affirm (NYSE: NASDAQ:AFRM ) faces challenges that could impact its future growth. The potential for a consumer slowdown, as highlighted by Lido Advisors' chief market strategist Gina Sanchez, poses a risk. As a BNPL provider, Affirm's business model relies heavily on consumer spending, which could be constrained if economic conditions worsen.
Moreover, while interest rate cuts could benefit Affirm (NYSE: NASDAQ:AFRM ), the timing and extent of these cuts remain uncertain. Investors will need to keep a close eye on Federal Reserve policy decisions, as they could significantly impact Affirm's cost of funding and overall profitability.
Conclusion: A Stock to Watch with Balanced Prospects
Affirm's recent earnings report is a testament to the company's operational resilience and strategic positioning in a rapidly evolving market. With strong revenue growth, improving margins, and key partnerships driving momentum, Affirm is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding BNPL market. However, investors should remain mindful of the potential risks, particularly around consumer spending patterns and macroeconomic uncertainties.
$AFRM - Setup into ERNASDAQ:AFRM Affirm is heading into earnings tomorrow at a critical juncture, right at the point of control and the descending wedge trendline resistance. This resistance is crucial and could make or break the setup. Needless to say, the earnings report will determine what happens next.
I'm hoping to see a breakout to the $37 area after earnings.
For more details and price targets, see my August 18 post.
$AFRM - Breakout potentialNASDAQ:AFRM Affirm has potential for a breakout. It’s currently up against resistance, and closing above this level could lead to further upside.
With earnings scheduled next week, there’s a catalyst in play.
The partnership with Apple Pay could significantly boost transaction volume.
Targets:
$33
$37
$41
Support:
$22
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I’m not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
AFRM: A Rise to TP$53 is Coming with Global Easing Cycle unfolds 1 Perspective of Macro factor: AFRM is one of leading provider in credits lender platform. There’s huge tailwinds for lenders in global easing cycle. When checking the high yield spread, it continues to narrow to hint a easing cycle ahead.
2. Perspective of Micro factor: AFRM has one of least delinquency rates for a loan provider with 43% Non-prime receivables . 30 days delinquency rates only for 2.3%, 60d for 1.4%, 90d for only 0.6%. For the same ties(44% non-prime receivables), other is 6% for 30 days. Their RLTC grew 38% YoY.
3.Perspective of profit duration: the adjusted operating margin was 14% Vs -2% Q323. 75% of the increase was due to increase of RLTC. With rate cuts, their RLTC will increase more to contribute a higher OM, which is the key of AFRM performance.
4.Perspective of Technical: Chart for a potential rise to 54TP for first target.
Based on all these, Strong bullish on AFRM.
Disclaimer: All of the posts or thoughts or charts here are just view of my own, not suggestions for your decision. Do your own DD before your decision.
Buy now, you may get paid later Affirm is coming after PayPal’s BNPL market, Apple Pay integration later this year should start to translate to higher revenue in 2025. This stock was crushed when interest rates increased aggressively. As we approach the end of that cycle, Affirm will probably sky rocker in value.
Now to the charts, massive cup and handle pattern forming on the weekly. Failed breakout from the downwards parallel channel. Whilst we are in the golden pocket, we could retest the weekly level just below. I’ll be laddering in from here down to those levels.
A lot of patience required with this stock. This is not financial advice, just a trade idea.
AFRM LONG.Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is highly optimistic about its future prospects, underscored by the recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The company sees this as a validation of its robust business model and growth potential. Affirm's innovative digital commerce platform is designed to revolutionize the consumer finance industry by offering flexible, transparent payment solutions. The rising earnings estimates reflect Affirm's commitment to enhancing its market position and driving long-term value for its shareholders. With a clear focus on expanding its customer base and partnerships, Affirm is poised for sustained success in the dynamic financial technology sector. BREAK ABOVE $53 will be nasty.
$AFRM Back to the demand zone. Shoulder Lean.NASDAQ:AFRM was in a long and severe downtrend, which it turned around May of 2023. In November of last year, it rocketed out of its rut climbing from $27 to $52 in a month. You don't have to be a Wyckoff nerd to see this Sign of Strength. Well, lots of people sold their bags, and it's back down to that demand area.
So, in conclusion, the trend has turned around, shown a sign of strength, and is currently making a higher low. Great entry. Great risk to reward. You could do a $50 target with $16 risk, or a $150 target and $8 risk. There's even a T/A case for $300 if you're more patient than I am. I have 2 plays that have a positive yield and this is a classic case of the best one, which I call "Shoulder Lean."
