Aligning with Relative Strength in this Environment $ALHCI'm long Alignment Healthcare NASDAQ:ALHC and continue to like it long above the $18 level. I expect to see resistance around the former ATH's around $27 or so. Notice the shorter term VWAP (anchored to the all-time-low) crossing above the longer-term VWAP (anchored to the all-time-high). I like the relative strength in this environment. NASDAQ:ALHC is a regional Medicare Advantage insurer with ambitions of expanding nationwide.
ALHC trade ideas
ALHC Long Trade Setup | Entry, SL, T1, T2!📈
Entry: $13.91 (breakout level)
Stop Loss (SL): $12.61 (marked in red) 🚫
Target 1 (T1): $15.30 (marked in yellow) 🟡
Target 2 (T2): $16.69 (marked in green) ✅
Reason: Ascending triangle breakout indicates bullish momentum. Strong breakout above $13.91 confirms further upside potential.
#ALHC #LongTrade #StockMarket #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #SwingTrading #ChartPatterns #BreakoutTrade #BullishMomentum
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC)1. Company Overview
Business Model: Alignment Healthcare provides tech-enabled Medicare Advantage plans, targeting senior consumers with a focus on personalized healthcare through its consumer-centric platform. The company operates primarily in the United States and aims to address diverse senior health needs, such as chronic conditions and economic challenges, while using advanced technology to enhance care quality.
2. Recent Financial Performance
Q3 2024 Results: In its recent earnings release, Alignment Healthcare reported a net loss of $26.4 million. Despite the loss, revenues increased by approximately 52% year-over-year to $692.4 million, attributed to rising Medicare Advantage enrollment. While the company met EPS expectations, its negative earnings indicate a need for ongoing operational improvements to reach profitability as it scales.
3. Market Expansion and Strategic Developments
High Ratings in Medicare Plans: Alignment’s Medicare Advantage plans have received strong ratings, with 98% of plans achieving four stars or higher in 2025, reflecting its focus on quality care. Additionally, the company expanded its provider network in Nevada, collaborating with Intermountain Health to improve access to coordinated care for seniors in the region.
Recognition and Customer Satisfaction: Alignment’s plans were ranked highly by U.S. News & World Report in Arizona, marking significant progress in consumer trust and brand reputation within the Medicare Advantage space.
4. Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment
Current Price and Target: ALHC’s stock currently trades around $13.82, marking a substantial increase from earlier in the year. However, the 12-month analyst target for ALHC is lower, around $10.25, suggesting potential downside based on current valuation levels. Analysts have a mixed outlook on the stock, with a “Buy” rating consensus but price targets indicating caution due to the company's profitability challenges.
5. Outlook and Risks
Growth Potential: ALHC aims for continued growth through expanding Medicare Advantage enrollments and increasing market share. Revenue is projected to grow significantly in 2025 as it continues to enhance its technology-driven healthcare solutions, with expected revenue of $3.47 billion, an increase of over 28% from 2024.
Challenges: The company’s path to profitability remains a concern, as high operational costs and increased competitive pressures in the Medicare Advantage space could impact margins. Insider selling in recent months also raises questions regarding confidence in near-term stock performance.
In summary, Alignment Healthcare is poised for revenue growth, driven by Medicare Advantage expansions and high member satisfaction. However, profitability and high operational costs remain significant challenges, making the near-term outlook cautious but promising if the company can continue expanding its customer base and operational efficiency.
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC) - Stock AnalysisCompany Overview
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. operates in the healthcare services industry, specifically within the managed care segment, where it provides health insurance services primarily to Medicare beneficiaries. Its business model centers around delivering value-based care, emphasizing preventive care, and efficient patient management. The aging U.S. population and increased demand for managed Medicare services represent strong long-term growth potential for companies like Alignment. The healthcare industry is expected to expand further as Medicare enrollment grows, providing a favorable tailwind for Alignment's core business.
Recent Performance and Earnings Summary
In Q3 2024, Alignment reported the following results:
Revenue: $692.4 million, marking a 52% year-over-year increase, which exceeded analyst expectations of $663.2 million.
Net Loss: $26.4 million, or -$0.14 per share, though this represented a 25% improvement compared to the previous year’s losses.
Gross Profit Margin: 11.41%, reflecting improved operational efficiency.
Quick Ratio: 1.45 and Current Ratio: 1.60, indicating a stable liquidity position.
Total Liabilities to Total Assets Ratio: 65.57%, showing a balanced capital structure.
Looking ahead, Alignment's forecasts show continued growth:
2024 FY Forecast: Revenue of $2.67 billion, EPS of -$0.68, with an EBIT loss of $108.08 million.
2025 FY Forecast: Revenue of $3.43 billion, EPS of -$0.51, and a narrower EBIT loss of $81.66 million.
2026 FY Forecast: Revenue of $4.19 billion, EPS of -$0.39, further reducing EBIT losses to $38.63 million.
These projections suggest a path toward profitability as revenue grows and losses narrow, potentially driven by operational efficiencies and a scaling patient base.
Stock Trends and Capital Flow
Recent Price Action: On November 2, 2024, Alignment closed at $12.85, near its resistance level of $12.96, with a support level around $11.50.
5-Day Capital Flow Data: Mixed with a major inflow of 5.59 million on October 31, contrasting prior outflows.
1-Day Capital Flow on November 2: $7.43 million inflow vs. $4.35 million outflow, signaling strong investor interest.
Profiteer Ratio: 0.9999, indicating high holding activity among current investors.
This capital flow suggests bullish sentiment and buying interest around the support levels, pointing toward potential upward momentum.
Analyst Sentiment and Target Price
Target Price: The average analyst target price is $12.55, with estimates ranging from $8.00 to $14.00.
Recommendation: Analysts are mixed but leaning toward optimism with 6 recommendations to buy, 2 for a strong buy, 4 holds, and 1 underperform rating.
Analysts show cautious optimism, but the company’s steady revenue growth and improving financial health contribute to a generally favorable outlook.
News and Market Sentiment
Recent news indicates positive sentiment around Alignment’s stock:
Earnings Beat and Strong Outlook: Following its strong Q3 earnings and revenue growth, the stock saw a 5.03% surge, attributed to impressive financial performance and growth prospects. This, combined with robust Medicare demand, positions the company well for continued expansion.
Capital Flow and Investor Interest: Significant capital inflows and stable liquidity further bolster investor confidence.
Bullish and Bearish Factors
Bullish Factors:
Strong revenue growth, up 52% year-over-year.
Positive market reception with strong capital inflows.
Industry trends favoring managed healthcare and Medicare expansion.
Bearish Factors:
Ongoing losses despite improving revenues.
Competitive pressures in the healthcare services sector.
On balance, the bullish factors appear stronger due to the company's significant revenue growth, market demand, and future profitability potential.
Disclaimer: The above analysis should not be considered investment advice. Stock prices are inherently volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct independent research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
#1 Reason This Stock Will Gap Up This stock I m watching it thos month
Am looking for a gap up
At the earnings report.
Last week Netflix gapped up
And since then I have been thinking
About what made it gap up
Maybe it was a catalyst and maybe the catalyst is the earnings report 📈
We will have to come to this one before the end of this month to see if my prediction is correct about this stock NASDAQ:ALHC
Also am using the 🚀 Rocket Booster Strategy.
Which has 3 Steps:
#1 -The price has to be above the 50 EMA
#2 -The price has to be above the 200 EMA
#3 -The price has to in an uptrend.
-
If you follow this strategy you can see the trend analysis of this price action.
Rocket 🚀 Boost this content to learn more
Disclaimer ⚠️ Trading is risky you will lose money wether you like it or not please Learn Risk Management And Profit Taking Strategies.
My Watchlist: ALHCALHC popped up on my stock scanner, so I'm adding it to my watchlist. I got a setup signal(1). Looking to enter long near the close of the day if the stock can manage to close above the last candle highs(2) with a stop-loss below (3) and a price target above(4). Volume is slightly higher then average (5).
ALHC Breakout!After breaking out of the descending channel and with significant support just below current levels. ALHC looks like it is ready to rise towards and beyond 50 and 100 day moving averages, with ~50% Upside.
Fundamentals looks strong with continued increase in market share expected long term.