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Advanced Micro Devices Inc

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AMD trade ideas

Market Top Looming For AMDRan through historical data on AMD and have quite a few signals of interest. The first event is bullish and calls for a move into the larger green box. Typically my signals come with a delay until the final movement is achieved. In this case, my Aggressive Multi-time frame indicator fired based on January 22, 2024 closing price. The signal was bullish, however, the common delay sees a retracement into the are of the pink box. Today, AMD moved down into the pink box possibly satisfying the delay prior to moving above the signal price and thus completing the signal. Although the delay and successful signal have both occurred, the stock cannot trade straight sideways forever. The likely direction is still very bullish, even if the stock were to revisit the small pink box in the next two days. Believing the stock will continue up, the question then becomes how high? I figure we are in the final end of an impulsive wave C. The five waves in this wave C are the larger Yellow numbers from when the wave began at the low on October 26, 2024. Yellow waves 1-4 are likely completed and we are in the final wave 5 upward now. Some of the common reversal points are highlighted with the wave extension levels on the right. 100% of wave 3's movement is at 151.05 while 200% is at 185.73. A wave 5 typically does not breach the 176.40% level therefore placing a likely top below 177.55. This yellow wave 5 is composed of five smaller white waves, of which 1-3 are likely completed and it is unknown if wave 4 was completed today too. Wave 4 could complete if there is additional downward movement within the next two days. Once wave 4 is confirmed the final white wave 5 will coincide with the market top. The same levels are interest on the left likely indicate a top below the 114% level. A common top is normally no higher than the 106-110% mark for micro fifth waves. This would likely keep the top below 177.20. I am not trying to find the top, but more of when the top could occur and what happens afterward. White wave 1 was five days, while wave 3 was six days. White wave 5 will likely be five days or less which is January 30. AMD reports earnings on January 30. There is a chance, either earnings, the outlook or a combination of factors do not fair well for AMD. There could be a final rally during the day on the 30th, until earnings come out after hours. AMD has debt that is due this year and the Fed's decision, but more likely its outlook on rate cuts this year could have a major impact on the refinancing of that debt. AMD could hold off on refinancing their debt if they believe cheaper rates are coming soon. If the Fed takes rate cuts off the table, do not provide a time table for cuts, or state factors enabling rate cuts are yet to be seen will force AMD to refinance their debt at higher rates. This could force them to sell stock (normally at a cheaper price), raise prices (consumers are already squeezed there) or another path not favorable to the short-term profitability. The earnings fall out will hit the stock on January 31. The Federal Reserve provides the next decision point on January 31. There is another signal that triggered at the close on January 12th that remains unfulfilled. That bearish signal indicated the stock could fall below 146.56 before February 20, 2024 based on historical data. The actual target box for the movement is the large yellow box on the chart. Based on the 383 studied occurrences, the signal is correct 91.361% of the time. Correct in this case would require a movement below 146.56. This instance could fall into the 8+% of failure, or it could occur via a longer path. I am positing AMD could crash down into the yellow box after fulfilling all signal price targets (pink, green, and yellow boxes). The Fed and earnings are only the beginning of the downward movement. I am still bearish on the market in the short-term (rest of 2024) even though I have called for the drop to occur in the prior months. The market is at new all-time highs, but are things really better than they were on January 3, 2022?
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by StockSignaler
AMD Faces Stock Slump Despite Q4 Revenue BeatAdvanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMD ), a prominent player in the semiconductor industry, recently experienced a sharp decline in its stock value following a weaker-than-expected sales forecast for the first quarter. Despite outperforming analyst predictions in the fourth quarter, AMD's stock slumped as it provided a cautious outlook, particularly for its PC chips and central processing units (CPUs). This article delves into the key factors behind the market's reaction, the company's financial performance, and the potential implications for investors. The Q4 Revenue Beat: NASDAQ:AMD reported fourth-quarter revenue of $6.17 billion, slightly exceeding the consensus analysts' estimate of $6.12 billion. The robust performance was driven by substantial year-over-year growth in its data center and client segments, recording 38% and 62% respectively. The surge was attributed to increased demand for Instinct graphics processors used in artificial intelligence (AI) applications and recent chip launches. Sales Guidance Misses the Mark: The primary reason for NASDAQ:AMD 's stock decline was its sales guidance for the first quarter of 2024, which fell short of Wall Street expectations. The company anticipates Q1 sales of about $5.4 billion, plus or minus $300 million, below the market consensus of $5.73 billion. The softening demand for PC chips and CPUs contributed to this outlook, raising concerns among investors. Navigating Challenges in PC Chips and CPUs: NASDAQ:AMD projects a decline in sales growth for its PC chips business in the first quarter, reflecting the challenges in the current market environment. However, it aims to offset this decline by leveraging growth in graphics processing units (GPUs) sales, emphasizing a focus on the lucrative AI market. The company foresees a significant uptick in 2024 AI GPU chip sales, with a revised projection of $3.5 billion, up from the initial forecast of $2 billion. Strategic Collaborations in the Cloud Space: NASDAQ:AMD CEO Lisa Su highlighted the company's collaborations with major players like Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta in the cloud space. Su mentioned working closely with these partners on Instinct GPU deployments for internal AI workloads and external offerings. This strategic positioning in the cloud market suggests that NASDAQ:AMD is actively seeking avenues to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-driven solutions. Technical Analysis and Support Levels: Let's also considers the technical aspects of NASDAQ:AMD 's stock performance, noting a potential three-month trendline support around $160. The analysis suggests that failure to hold this key level could signal a possible trend reversal. Investors are advised to closely monitor the stock's movement, especially in light of an earnings-driven retracement. Conclusion: While NASDAQ:AMD 's fourth-quarter performance showcased strength in key segments, the market's reaction to the sales forecast for Q1 2024 has raised questions among investors. The company's strategic focus on AI GPU chip sales and collaborations in the cloud space reflects its commitment to adapting to evolving market dynamics. As the semiconductor industry continues to navigate challenges, investors will be closely watching NASDAQ:AMD 's ability to execute its strategy and maintain its competitive edge in the rapidly changing tech landscape.
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by DEXWireNews
AMD: Targeting HOP Level at $208.051: Holding 3.618 as SupportLast week during earnings, INTC reversed at the PCZ of a Bearish 5-0 after trading just below the highly contested 50 dollar strike. Now AMD is doing something similar, except its highly contested strike is below it at $170-$175. I find it a little bit more likely that AMD goes for a move up towards the 200 level which would align it with the Bearish HOP level where then one may consider switching to a Bearish bias. I will be playing it via synthetic longs and vertical spreads This is an updated Post after realizing that AMD just filled a gap visible on the daily, I also felt like reposting it on the daily timeframe because after hours activity does not really matter for the options position.
NLong
by RizeSenpai
AMD: Targeting HOP Level at $208.051Last week during earnings, INTC reversed at the PCZ of a Bearish 5-0 after trading just below the highly contested 50 dollar strike. Now AMD is doing something similar except it's highly contested stike is below it at $175. I find it a little bit more likely that AMD goes for a move up towards the 200 level which would align it with the Bearish HOP level where then one may consider switching to a Bearish bias. I will be playing it via options spreads, in a way that gives some credit in order to reduce risks either being a Vertical or a Butterfly call spread though I may increase my risks a bit and go synthetic long.
NLong
by RizeSenpai
AMD Update: 01/28/2024I'm sure when I first posted how high my forecast for AMD was most of you scoffed at it. Well, look at where we are now. I still feel we are targeting the 1.382 next @ $193.30. This isn't a requirement though as you can see, we are in the target box. When we hit the top, we will start our wave iv retrace which will bring us to the $150-$160 area before raising again to the low $200's for v of 3. One step at a time though. MACD has already made a new high for this move up confirming the count. When we do top, I will try to sneak in a couple of puts for the retrace but won't push it. I don't like counter trend trading especially during a wave 3. This week should be interesting to say the least.
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by TSuth
1
AMD - All Time HighHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of AMD. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: In 2016 AMD broke out of a long term triangle reversal pattern. This breakout was then followed by a pump of +5.000%. After the 2022 pullback of 70%, perfectly retesting previous structure, we are not certainly back to a bullish market on AMD. If we see a retracement back to the structure mentioned in the analysis, I am certainly looking for more long setups on AMD. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
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by basictradingtv
7
AMD taking a breather? I've had quite a bit of success last year with levels on my old pal, AMD but have been ignoring him for the most part as I focused elsewhere. However, dowsing earlier this week told me to check it out for a short entry at $140. We're there, and it could go a bit higher, but today seems the day to reverse as I repeatedly get a "spike up and reverse down" scenario in indexes and AMD. I was also told to get a date, which is the 12th, next Friday. Dates are typically reversals, but sometimes nothing I'm aware of. I think I'm slowly figuring some things out with timing as I'm usually so early. This is a good example. When I asked about a downside target a couple days ago when it said to look short, dowsing gave a price HIGHER! Hence the $140 number and my indication it wasn't time yet, but there will be an opportunity soon. I hope this works out as it could help me with a lot of things. I seem to have more accuracy on AMD for some reason than other stocks, but maybe that's because I focused and practiced with it a lot? Idk. Watch the time this morning in one hour. 11:40-50 for indexes to begin a roll. My times of day have been helpful lately and I'm sure AMD will follow to some extent. AMD hod atm $140.52
NShort
by JenRz