ASTS shortI used to be bullish on this in the recent past, but now it looks like price wants to crash through support here. I will looks buy some puts on this this week.
ASTS trade ideas
$ASTS Looking Good Moving ForwardIn its Q2 earnings call, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) revealed a series of exciting news regarding its revolutionary satellite technology. The most exciting news is that the company has fully funded the construction of its first 5 BlueBird satellites representing Block 1. These 5 satellites are set to be launched in Q1 2024 and will be followed by 20 additional satellites representing Block 2 which will be launched throughout 2024 and 2025. In addition, the company hinted at potential investments through equity-linked payments and non-dilutive payments to further fund its endeavors. With the company also hinting at the possibility of securing government contracts, ASTS stock could be a smart long-term investment at current levels.
ASTS Fundamentals
Promising Developments
ASTS’ pre-revenue phase may soon be behind it since it is on track to launch more than 5 satellites in 2024. These satellites include the 5 BlueBird satellites from its Block 1 in addition to some of the 20 Block 2 satellites. The company is also in a perfect position to utilize these satellites right away as it currently has more than 40 MOUs with network operators across the world. In this way, the company would be able to service up to 2.4 billion subscribers once all of its satellites are operational.
With this in mind, ASTS forecasts to spend around 3 months testing and calibrating these satellites in orbit. In this way, it could be safe to assume that the company may start generating revenues from Block 1 in late Q2 or early Q3 2024. Through these 5 satellites, the company not only expects to offer broadband services, but it is also anticipating other governmental and other types of applications.
On that note, ASTS expects Block 1 to have very strong governmental applications thanks to its IP as well as the size and power capabilities of its satellites in low Earth orbit. As is, the company is in the process of evaluating opportunities on the government side at the same time it is focusing on broadband applications. For this reason, a government contract or grant may not be out of the question which would provide the company’s prospects with a massive boost.
Given this information, as well as the impressive nature of ASTS’ satellites, it should come as no surprise that multiple companies are seeking to own a stake in ASTS. One of which is likely AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) given its involvement in ASTS’ operations. T has previously assisted ASTS with its R&D by leasing its electromagnetic spectrum to ASTS which was critical for testing bluewalker 3. Due to the company’s close partnership, it is very possible that one of the interested parties the company hinted at is T. Moreover, the company may emerge as a buyout target for T to capitalize on its impressive technology, however, such a deal may not take place until the company’s satellite network is complete.
Liquidity
ASTS also announced a comprehensive financing package that will provide it with up to $179 million in cash – further improving its liquidity. This package comprises around $100 million in senior secured notes, $15 million in equipment-backed loans, $57 million obtained in stock offering last June, in addition to $7 million acquired during an ATM program. Through this extra liquidity, the company may accelerate the development of Block 2 which could see it launch a substantial portion of the 20 satellites in 2024.
ASTS Financials
According to its Q2 2023 report, ASTS’ assets decreased QoQ from $438 million to $408 million due to its cash balance shrinking from $238 million to $190 million. That said, it is worth noting that this figure is likely not an accurate estimate of the company’s current cash balance due to its recently announced financing package. Assets aside, liabilities also decreased QoQ falling from $78 million to $72 million due to dwindling accounts payable and warrant liabilities.
The company’s expenses increased substantially YoY from $35.4 million to $58 million due to engineering services costs which almost doubled from $11.99 million to $22.81 million. As a result of the company’s increasing expenses and lack of revenue, its net loss increased from $8 million to $49.5 million. These bearish indications in the income statement are not as worrying as they may seem since the company is set to start generating revenue in Q2 or Q3 2024 which should rejuvenate its financials.
Technical Analysis
ASTS stock is in a neutral trend with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $3.64 and $4.11. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading below the 200 and 50 MAs which is a bullish sign, but is holding the 21 MA support which is a bullish sign. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 44 and the MACD is neutral as well.
As for the fundamentals, the anticipated launch of Block 1 in Q1 2024 is a major catalyst for the stock since it would allow the company to start realizing revenues. Considering the company’s potential to secure government contracts, its outlook appears to be bright in the long term once its network is complete. With the stock holding its 21 MA support, investors could find the current PPS a good entry ahead of the launch of Block 1 as the stock could fill the gap near $6.2 with a successful launch.
ASTS Forecast
Currently, ASTS is the only company with satellite tech capable of directly connecting with mobile phones. Despite it being in its pre-revenue phase, the company is well off since it recently completed a financing package and has received indications from interested parties which might lead to a sizable investment. The company is also poised to launch its first 5 BlueBird satellites in Q1 2024 and actualize revenue in Q2 or Q3 2024. Taking all that into consideration, ASTS stock is likely to climb to new heights – making its current PPS a bargain for long-term investors.
$ASTS - Will history repeat itself?NASDAQ:ASTS after bottoming out post earnings call, a triple bottom has formed as seen within the chart. Currently hovering around support levels. A similar chart pattern has formed twice in the past, will the third time be a charm? With potential funding on the horizon, there could be a catalyst to push NASDAQ:ASTS over the hill.
$ASTS Wyckoff and Elliot wave TAI have arrived at the following wave count conclusion. This correction takes the form of a wxy pattern: w comprises a double zigzag, followed by x, and then a double combination consisting of a zigzag, another x, and finally a flat pattern.
My analysis is further supported by a Wyckoff accumulation pattern.
At this juncture, we find ourselves in phase c, marked by the deliberate shaking off of retail investors. The market makers are employing tactics to create a sense of confusion, aiming to mislead investors and erode their confidence in the company. This orchestrated strategy often prompts them to relinquish their holdings.
ASTS - Not Another Bounce Idea 😔 | Knife Catchers EditionASTS has dipped into its weekly support zone offering a potential bounce from these lows with a high R/R potential.
Disclosure: I have ownership here. I won't be in on the trade unless I grab some contracts.
$ASTS looking like Long setup from hereGetting on a long trade at $4.2 for $ASTS. Looks like it’s ready for a nice bounce.
$ASTS Looking Good Moving ForwardAfter it completed its first-ever direct voice connection to its satellite, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) shared another historical milestone with its BlueWalker 3 communicating with an everyday smartphone through 4G. ASTS stock is currently up 66% YTD and could soar even higher with any major catalyst due to the high short interest the stock is seeing.
ASTS Fundamentals
Another Milestone
ASTS reached another milestone after it confirmed 4G capabilities for everyday smartphones directly from space, and has reached initial speeds up to 10.3 Mbps. That, coupled with ASTS making the first direct voice connection to its satellite, would mean that the company has the capability to connect people no matter their location which would be a huge leap in the communication space. Furthermore, ASTS intends to test the enablement of 5G cellular broadband as a major milestone which would be a huge accomplishment given the slow global adoption of 5G.
Short Data
Despite ASTS recently announcing multiple milestones, its short interest has increased to 24.02% and nearly 26% of its float on loan, with a 100% utilization rate. The new announcement of BlueWalker 3 4G capabilities raises the possibility of ASTS stock skyrocketing due to a short squeeze.
Technical Analysis
ASTS stock’s trend is bullish with the stock trading in an upwards channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bullish indications. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 62 and the MACD is approaching a bearish crossover.
As for the fundamentals, ASTS stock just witnessed a catalyst in the announcement of BlueWalker 3 4G capabilities. ASTS officially joining the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes will be a future catalyst that may trigger a short squeeze due to the high short interest rate.
ASTS Forecast
ASTS has reached another huge milestone by confirming BlueWalker 3’s 4G capabilities after it made the first-ever space-based voice call directly to an unmodified smartphone. Furthermore, ASTS will join the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes on June 26. Given the stock’s high short interest, ASTS stock could be poised to soar soon as a short squeeze could be likely to occur.
$ASTS Looking Good Moving ForwardSet to join the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) the leader in space-based cellular network space, has witnessed a historical quarter. ASTS has completed its first-ever direct voice connection to its satellite. Furthermore, ASTS stock is currently up 31% YTD and could soar even higher with any major catalyst due to the high short interest the stock is seeing.
ASTS Fundamentals
New Milestones
Earlier in April, ASTS achieved a historical milestone by making the first-ever space-based voice call directly to an unmodified Samsung Galaxy S22 using its BlueWalker 3 satellite. That is a huge milestone for ASTS and the industry alike which validates its technology and means that now ASTS knows that it can move forward with its roadmap. ASTS is planning to launch its Block 1 satellites in Q1 2024 and has already agreed with SpaceX to launch Block 1 on a dedicated Falcon 9 rocket.
Moreover, ASTS and AT&T (NYSE: T) made fillings regarding a spectrum lease agreement that covers the vast majority of AT&T’s low-band spectrum assets, which would enable ASTS to use them in its space mobile service. AT&T and ASTS also submitted multiple comments for the ongoing rulemaking process for supplemental coverage from space, which indicates a long partnership between the companies.
Following its first-quarter earnings, ASTS was announced to join the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes on June 26. The inclusion of ASTS stock in the Russell indexes is a huge milestone for ASTS since it will expose it to more institutional investors, potentially increasing its value further, especially since it is already up 31% year to date.
Short Data
While short interest has decreased for ASTS stock by almost 8% since November 2022, ASTS stock is still seeing a high short interest rate despite the multiple milestones it has achieved in Q1.
ASTS stock is highly shorted with a short interest of 23% and 25% of its float on loan. At the same time, utilization rate remains high at 100% which may see ASTS soaring when it joins the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes later this month since short sellers might be forced to cover their positions.
ASTS Financials
In its Q1 2023 report, ASTS’s assets decreased 15% QoQ from $268 million to $227 million, and its cash and cash equivalents decreased 22% QoQ from $238 million to $185 million. ASTS’s total liabilities increased by 6% QoQ from $78 million to $83 million.
ASTS didn’t realize any revenue in Q1 after it had achieved 2.4 million in Q1 2022. Operating costs increased almost 37% from $32 million to $44 million, which contributed to the operating loss decrease of 88% YoY from $5,467 thousand to $646 thousand, which amounted to a net loss of $45 million – an 18% increase YoY.
Technical Analysis
ASTS stock’s trend is bullish with the stock trading in an upwards channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bullish indications. Meanwhile, RSI is neutral at 58 and the MACD is approaching a bearish crossover. It is also worth noting that if the stock broke the $5.89 resistance it may enter a new channel between $5.89 and $6.78.
As for the fundamentals, ASTS stock just witnessed a catalyst in the announcement that it is joining the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes on June 26. The Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 additions will be a future catalyst that may trigger a short squeeze due to the high short interest rate.
ASTS Forecast
ASTS has reached a huge milestone by making the first-ever space-based voice call directly to an unmodified smartphone which will enable ASTS to move forward with its future plans. Furthermore, the addition to the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes is another huge milestone for ASTS, which could also trigger a short squeeze when ASTS officially joins on June 26 due to the high short interest. ASTS stock is a stock to keep an eye on, especially since it is the pioneer of space-based cellular.
ATST at resistance needs to break for continuation daily close above 5.33 ill look to long for gap fill at 6+
$ASTS back to support at 21 emaIt's sticky here while we wait for data drop. Sit up beautifully for a strong pop though having been range bound for quite some time now.
$ASTS what was previously the ceiling is trying to be support$ASTS what was previously the ceiling is now trying to be support. Time will tell if it can hold here.
ASTS - interesting chartNASDAQ:ASTS I've never seen this done on charts before, and I had a little free time. Plotting the Highs & lows from Dec '21 - current. I drew trend lines to interconnect all of the points (this is how I find support & resistance levels).
For those of you not familiar with ASTS - they are building a Low Earth Orbit (satellite) cellular network. Eventually - this will eliminate the need for the millions of cell towers on the ground.
Anyway - low & behold the chart outline. It's kind of "fitting" for a space related company. If there's a Star Wars, or Empire Strikes Back fan - you'll have to tell me what the spaceship is.
$ASTS $T LFGHUGE volume today. They know what's coming. Big conf with AT&T and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. Maybe contract data announcement this week?
$asts strong recovery here back over 21emaAfter getting hammered on overall industry and general market weakness ASTS has made a strong push back over it's 21ema. Not all the space stocks have recovered so well. Very good sign after shaking out some weak hands. Let's see if it can hold it's 21ema on the next dip now as this time of move can often lead to substantial upside.
$asts broke 21 ema with emphasis today. Retest of 50sma likely$asts broke 21 ema with emphasis today. Retest of 50sma likely without a positive news catalyst unless general market has a significant turn around.
$ASTS 21 EMA uptrend still intact as space stocks take a beating$ASTS 21 EMA uptrend still intact as space stocks take a beating on the bad ER of GSAT and SPCE
$ASTS solid base formed after bouncing off 21ema again$ASTS solid base formed after bouncing off 21ema again
$ASTS continuing to hold support at 21 EMA$ASTS continuing to hold support at 21 EMA. With the 5g data drop eminent it's coiling very tightly now
$ASTS continuing to find support at the 21 EMA$ASTS continuing to find support at the 21 EMA as it progresses
$ASTS gap fill and consolidation $ASTS gap fill and consolidation, speculative play with rare upside
$ASTS$ASTS formed a short base but a textbook looking one and is going up with a strong push on volume now.
$ASTS elliott wavesRe-calculating the waves... We do a more complex wave for wave 4. I expect a retracement for the B wave of the zigzag wave (z). And then close the gap at least or more but without infringement wave 1
bear vs bull case for SASTSBear case vs Bull case
-Bears will need to take the advantage of historically overbought RSI, the break down of rising wedge, and the gaps down in order to push it further down.
-Bulls will need to use the news and push it up with FOMO and close the gap to 17 with a final target at the 20s.
