Target $95-125 entry for LT investmentTechnicals and Fundamentals
- Divergence marked the top
- 50-60% pull-backs common --> $95 or $120
- Revenue growing YoY (and backlog is not fully dependent on Ukraine)
- Broke below 3-year trendline since 2022 lows, next long-term trendline support at 9-year trendline (also near $95)
- 30-40% gross margins. Lower Net income margins (as investing in growth: acquiring Blue Halo, building new facility in Salt Lake City)
Headwinds:
- Watch March 4th earnings. I expect disappointment (per Ukraine/US difficulties)
- Dependent on government purchases "you only have 1 customer in this market" - CEO quote. This is concerning in light of DOGE. However, AVAV could be a winner of shift to UAVs (and cheaper warfare technology in general)
Investment Thesis:
AVAV is investing in the future with M&A and construction of new facilities. It's revenue is growing steadily and the firm has high future earnings potential. The stock is down big from the war 'bubble' popping, but history shows 50-60% corrections are common, which would align with technical support at or above ~$95. Therefore, I see this move downward as a great buying opportunity for long-term (5+ year) investments. Will target entries $95-125, with focus around 200W MA.
AVAV trade ideas
The Joy of Sharing: Embracing a Lifestyle of Giving.The Joy of Giving: Why Offering Free Ideas and Indicators to the TradingView Community is a Lifestyle, Not Just an Act
In the ever-evolving world of trading and investments, there is one platform that has successfully connected traders and investors worldwide— TradingView . This platform has become a haven for sharing trading insights, chart ideas, and custom-built indicators, allowing traders of all skill levels to grow, learn, and improve. But why should we offer our ideas and indicators to the TradingView community for free? What kind of impact does it have, not just on others but on ourselves as human beings? And how does this simple act of giving fit into a broader lifestyle of fulfillment? In this article, we'll explore why sharing our insights freely is not just about helping others but about embracing a way of life that brings joy, positivity, and a deeper connection to the world around us.
The Beauty of Giving: More Than Just Data
Offering free indicators and ideas to the TradingView community goes beyond simply sharing lines on a chart or algorithms. It’s about contributing to a pool of collective knowledge that helps others become more informed traders. In a world where financial education is often expensive and accessible only to a select few, providing free, quality content is a way to democratize the playing field. By offering your insights without expecting anything in return, you are helping others make more informed decisions, avoid common pitfalls, and maybe even achieve financial independence.
The act of sharing brings with it a sense of fulfillment. It creates a positive cycle where the joy of giving becomes its own reward. In many ways, it's like sowing seeds in a field—each seed has the potential to grow into something powerful, bearing fruits that will feed and nurture others. When you share an indicator that helps someone identify a trend or avoid a costly mistake, you're not just offering technical knowledge; you are also empowering people to take charge of their financial lives.
Creating a Ripple Effect in the Community
When one person shares their idea or tool freely, it inspires others to do the same. It sets off a ripple effect, a chain of positive actions that reverberates throughout the entire TradingView community. This is why platforms like TradingView have grown to become such vibrant and helpful environments—because users actively choose to share, support, and uplift one another.
Imagine a newcomer to the world of trading, overwhelmed by complex charts and market jargon. For them, stumbling upon a free, easy-to-understand indicator or a well-explained chart idea can be a turning point. They start to see the bigger picture, develop their own strategies, and, eventually, they might contribute their insights. This sense of community is strengthened by each person’s willingness to give without expecting anything in return.
Moreover, the support that comes from this sharing culture is irreplaceable. You might receive comments thanking you for your work, or you might see others adapting and improving your indicator for their use. These interactions lead to a sense of belonging—something invaluable in an activity as solitary as trading. Knowing that your contribution has helped someone, even if they’re halfway across the world, creates an invisible bond that fosters unity within the community.
Personal Growth and the Joy of Giving
There is an ancient saying, echoed in various cultures and spiritual philosophies: "The more you give, the more you receive." In the context of sharing freely, this does not necessarily mean financial gain but refers to the intangible benefits that enrich your life. Offering your trading insights to others can lead to unexpected opportunities, collaborations, and even friendships. It can also deepen your own understanding of trading concepts. When you share an indicator or an idea, you often receive feedback that challenges your thinking, encourages improvement, or introduces you to new concepts that you hadn't previously considered.
The act of giving without expecting recognition or monetary rewards is liberating. It takes you away from a transactional mindset and places you into a state of abundance. You realize that your worth is not measured by how much you earn from your knowledge, but by how much positive impact you can create. When we adopt this mindset, we become more open, more curious, and more motivated to keep learning. After all, if our goal is to help others, then we must continue improving ourselves so that we can provide even more value.
This sense of fulfillment is also deeply connected to the concept of karma—when you put something good out into the universe, that kindness often returns to you in some form. By choosing to help others succeed, you’re creating a positive energy that can manifest in surprising ways. Whether it's in the form of new connections, improved trading skills, or simply the sense of satisfaction that comes from helping others, the universe has a way of giving back.
A Lifestyle, Not Just a Habit
Sharing free ideas and indicators is not just a practice; it's a lifestyle. It’s a way of being that goes beyond trading and touches every aspect of your life. When you make giving a habit, it changes the way you approach challenges and opportunities. You begin to see every problem as a chance to grow and every bit of knowledge as something that can be shared to make a positive impact.
Living this way means you don’t hold back your skills or knowledge out of fear that others might surpass you. Instead, you embrace the idea that the better others become, the better the community as a whole becomes—which, in turn, pushes you to become better. In TradingView, we believe in quality and free support of the community. This belief motivates us to improve, refine our skills, and continually provide value.
As traders, we often face periods of uncertainty, losses, and frustrations. These are natural parts of the journey. However, when you’re part of a community that shares openly, those challenges become more manageable. You know that others have faced similar struggles, and you can learn from their experiences. You may even find that offering help during someone else’s challenging times helps you gain a new perspective on your own difficulties.
The Impact on Self and Others
The impact of offering free trading indicators and ideas goes beyond the individual and the community—it contributes to a culture of generosity that benefits everyone. For beginners, the value of free, quality indicators cannot be overstated. It saves them from having to invest in costly tools before they even understand the basics. It gives them a fighting chance to learn and grow without the stress of financial strain. It levels the playing field in a domain where information is power.
For experienced traders, sharing their work leads to a deeper understanding of their craft. As the famous physicist Richard Feynman once said, "If you want to master something, teach it." Sharing an indicator or an idea forces you to think about it in different ways, to simplify complex concepts, and to be open to constructive feedback. This process inevitably enhances your own skills and insights, making you a better trader.
Finally, the act of giving can profoundly affect your sense of purpose. Trading can often feel like a self-centered endeavor, focused primarily on profits and personal gains. However, when you share your knowledge freely, you shift from a self-serving mindset to one that seeks to serve others. You’re no longer just trading for profit—you’re trading to make a difference. This shift in purpose can provide you with greater motivation, resilience, and overall happiness in your trading journey.
The Positive Cycle of Karma
In many ways, offering free content to the TradingView community embodies the idea of karma—the notion that the energy you put out into the world will eventually return to you. By giving freely, you create positive energy that has a way of coming back, often in ways that are unexpected. Perhaps your generosity leads someone to share an indicator with you that helps you refine your strategy, or maybe you receive an offer to collaborate on a project that wouldn’t have come your way if you hadn’t first contributed to the community.
This idea of karma is not about giving with the expectation of receiving something in return; rather, it’s about trusting that kindness begets kindness. When you give to the TradingView community, you’re contributing to a collective effort to make trading accessible, understandable, and supportive for everyone. And when the community thrives, everyone involved—including you—benefits.
Conclusion: A Lifestyle Rooted in Abundance
Offering free ideas and indicators to the TradingView community is not just about sharing knowledge—it's about embracing a lifestyle rooted in abundance, kindness, and a desire to make a positive impact. It’s about finding joy in the act of giving, growing personally as you help others grow, and believing that the universe rewards those who give freely with an open heart.
At TradeVizion , we give our free scripts and ideas with love, believing that the true essence of growth lies in uplifting others. Our mission is to empower every trader—whether just starting or experienced—to reach their full potential by providing innovative tools and insights to navigate the markets effectively. We take immense pride in contributing to a thriving community where support and shared knowledge lead to mutual success.
In the end, the true reward of offering your insights without seeking payment or recognition lies in the impact you make, the lives you touch, and the sense of fulfillment you gain. By adopting a lifestyle of giving, you not only help others become better traders but also motivate yourself to grow, adapt, and evolve. As the TradingView community continues to flourish, it’s the spirit of generosity, collaboration, and quality support that will keep pushing us all toward a brighter, more connected future.
So, the next time you develop a new indicator or trading strategy, consider sharing it with the community. Not for recognition or reward, but for the simple joy of giving. You might be surprised at the positive impact it has—not just on others, but on yourself.
How Will AeroVironment's $990M U.S. Army Contract Impact Its StoAeroVironment's stock surged after securing a $990 million U.S. Army contract for its Switchblade drones, boosting investor confidence. The deal, aimed at enhancing infantry capabilities, will run through 2029. Following the announcement, analysts from Baird and Alembic Global upgraded AeroVironment's rating, setting new price targets of $220 and $216 respectively. The Switchblade contract is expected to add significant revenue, providing strong visibility for the company's future growth.
Long term long trade potentialMajor breakout with #earnings for NASDAQ:AVAV
For Fiscal year 2023, company reported a 21% increase over the previous period. 4th quarter saw a 40% increase alone!
Outlook: AeroVironment expects full-year 2024 revenue to be between $700 million and $710 million versus estimates of $700.833 million. The company expects full-year adjusted earnings to be between $2.69 and $2.83 per share versus estimates of $2.73 per share. AeroVironment continues to expect double-digit revenue growth in full-year 2025.
AeroVironment Surges on Stellar EarningsAeroVironment ( NASDAQ:AVAV ) has made waves in the market with its impressive fiscal third-quarter 2024 earnings report, surpassing expectations and raising full-year guidance. As the Arlington-based drone manufacturer experiences a surge in demand for its innovative solutions, investors are bullish on the company's growth trajectory and market dominance.
Earnings Beat and Upward Guidance:
AeroVironment ( NASDAQ:AVAV ) reported robust earnings growth of 91%, with EPS reaching 63 cents per share, and a 39% increase in sales to $186.6 million in Q3. These stellar results exceeded analyst estimates, demonstrating the company's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for drones across various sectors.
Strategic Outlook and Growth Potential:
Buoyed by strong performance and a positive outlook, AeroVironment ( NASDAQ:AVAV ) raised its full-year revenue guidance to $700 million-$710 million, with earnings projected between $2.69-$2.83 per share. With Wall Street forecasting further growth in EPS and sales for 2024, the company remains well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the drone market.
CEO's Vision and Market Position:
Chief Executive Wahid Nawabi expressed confidence in AeroVironment's future prospects, citing increased global demand, a robust backlog, and a growing pipeline. As a leading supplier of drones to the U.S. military and other government agencies, AeroVironment ( NASDAQ:AVAV ) continues to innovate and expand its product portfolio to meet evolving customer needs.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment:
NASDAQ:AVAV stock surged by an impressive 26% following the earnings release, breaking out above key resistance levels and signaling strong investor confidence. The company's strategic focus on research, development, and production of drones for military, research, and commercial applications has resonated positively with shareholders.
Diverse Product Portfolio and Strategic Partnerships:
Apart from drones, AeroVironment ( NASDAQ:AVAV ) is also involved in missile production and has developed innovative solutions such as the Switchblade "suicide" drones, which have gained prominence in conflict zones like Ukraine. Additionally, the company's involvement in electric vehicle development underscores its commitment to innovation and sustainability.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, AeroVironment's ( NASDAQ:AVAV ) stellar earnings performance and upward guidance highlight its position as a market leader in the drone industry. With a strong focus on innovation, strategic partnerships, and diversified product offerings, the company is well-equipped to capitalize on the growing demand for drone technology across various sectors. As AeroVironment ( NASDAQ:AVAV ) continues to expand its footprint and drive growth, investors can expect sustained value creation and market outperformance in the foreseeable future.
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UAVsAeroVironment, Inc. is an American defense contractor headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, that is primarily involved in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (Wikipedia)
I have been eyeing the military industry for some time, but the stocks have never reached the price I would take. Anyway, AeroVironment looks among the best in the sector from both technical and fundamental perspectives.
The technicals:
There is a double top pattern that developed itself into a triangle. The bottom is specified by two significant lows exceeding a round number 100.0 to the downside. The most significant gap is in the location too.
I expect a lot of liquidity below the yellow rectangle. If we ever reach there without an overall market crash, I'll create the entry there. It's probably the last line of DEFENSE against the bear market. Remember, that the big players need that extra liquidity to open a significant position.
The fundamentals:
The drones were used in recent conflicts against both a professional army and militia/guerrilla force with great success. Even though, the army makes it clear that UAVs are not a replacement for any part of the military, the spendings on both the research and the development increases over time (Statista).
However, the coronavirus might cause some material issues, and increases in spending might be halted (Ibisworld), it is a kind of technology the US will not want to fall behind in. Well, it has already started to fall behind as Turkey develops the first 'dronecraft carrier'. I think the cuts are rather to hit other parts of the defense sector.
I like AeroVironment specifically because, with its focus on UAVs, it is likely to fight for the contracts in this category most hard and the price is as a result derived mostly from this growing part of the sector.
The crash:
The question is if there is enough time for the buying opportunity to develop & profit from before the markets crash. I will be looking for an opportunity between 95-100$, but might not decide to invest at all in the end.
AVAV : BLUE SKY / SWING TRADEAgEagle Aerial stock jumps in wake of AeroVironment's Arcturus deal
AgEagle Aerial Systems (NYSEMKT:UAVS) shares fly up 21% after a $405M acquisition announced late yesterday in the unmanned aircraft systems space may be be raising investors' hopes for more consolidation in the industry.
After Wednesday's close AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV) agreed to acquire privately held Arcturus UAV in cash and stock.
In the past year, UAVS shares have skyrocketed to $9.39 from 55 cents, with its ascent accelerating midyear amid speculation that the company was working with Amazon on a delivery drone.
UAVS shares surge more than 1,000% in the past year.
SOURCE : Jan. 14, 2021 4:02 PM ETAgEagle Aerial Systems, Inc. (UAVS)By: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
Ride the droneThis breakaway gap leads this stock to a new high, and if it won't be fulfilled then fresh new highs will come.
I believe in drone companies!
This forecast was created to support you, but you have to make your trading decisions independently! As nobody sees the future, I recommend you that always apply risk management during your trading!
AVAV to Acquire Arcturus UAV, Expanding Product PortfolioAeroVironment to Acquire Arcturus UAV, Expanding Product Portfolio and Reach into Group 2 and 3 Unmanned Aircraft Systems Segments
Total transaction value of $405 million in cash and stock, including $355 million in cash and $50 million in AeroVironment stock.
Arcturus UAV has a demonstrated track record of solid performance, with topline growth exceeding 20 percent for each of its last two fiscal years.
Arcturus UAV’s complementary capabilities provide program diversification, increase key customer penetration and enhance shareholder value
Arcturus UAV is well positioned for ongoing United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) Mid-Endurance UAS (MEUAS) task orders, United States Army Future Tactical UAS (FTUAS) program delivery orders and international contracts
Expected to be immediately accretive to revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin and non-GAAP diluted EPS, excluding intangible assets, amortization expense and deal and integration costs, and accretive to GAAP diluted EPS by fiscal year 2022
Group 2 and 3 UAS and services, collectively, potentially represent more than one billion dollars in annual contract value, according to an independent forecast.
The Arcturus UAV team has produced strong growth in recent years and has secured strategically important wins in the MEUAS and FTUAS programs, positioning Arcturus as a leader for next-generation program requirements
In connection with the acquisition, AeroVironment has received commitments for a $200 million Term Loan Facility and $100 million revolver (undrawn at close) with Bank of America, N.A. acting as Administrative Agent, and with BofA Securities, Inc., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and U.S. Bank National Association acting as arrangers. AeroVironment will fund approximately $155 million of the acquisition from cash on hand.
finance.yahoo.com