BASE trade ideas
6/5/24 - $base - don't see much i like here in this tape-caution6/5/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:BASE - among NYSE:CXM , NYSE:SMAR and now this one reporting tn... they all basically suffer from the same factor problems (read those). the issue w base is that it's possibly even worse given the size, higher valuation, actual cash burn (despite dilution) and arguably even more "at risk" of AI-narrative-murda. the chart is defn in make or break mode. i'm no technician-first approach as many on this platform are, but i can clearly see some massive risk to the downside if they can't deliver (we're talking 15-20%) and upside will be tough to buy and stick and rip... and btw if it's a sector-specific move, this will likely not be the biggest beneficiary, instead the winners will consolidate further gains until we reach a sustainable rally in the sector where the winners will get sold to buy some of the losers cheap (arguably some already are, some aren't - i'd posit this is not "cheap"). so GL to those who know the story/ name more than me, but this seems like a clear "caution" in the here and now of what the tape is buying.
BASE - Inverted Head & ShouldersFor the past 3 weeks, BASE has seen higher volume (accumulation) leading it to break out of an inverted Head & Shoulders Formation (bullish) last week. With earning expected on 6th June, it is likey that it's earnings could be positive. However, whether the recent up move has already factored in a positive earning (and then "sell on news") remains to be seen.
If it started to sell off on "news" after earnings is announced, it could present good entry opportunity to long if it remains supported above the 50% retracement of it's recent upswing AB.
However, if it gaps up after earnings, then we need wait and see if it begins to consolidate before looking for signals to long (bullish patterns, divergence, fib support, gap close etc).
This inverted H&S basing formation had formed over 12 months+ and looks to be credible for longer term upside, not to mention it is also now above it's 200 day MA (although it could be risky to long in the short term due to earning announcement risks). Let's see what happens after earnings and whether opportunity to long present itself after.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
A Tale of two Sell Offs POST IPO analysisA look at the two largest sell offs in the opening day gives us some data (with decent volume) on market structure.
Only recently have we seen a little buying support around $29-$30, but not nearly enough to consider significant accumulation.
Accumulation could happen in the lower range between $28 - $30 going forward, with the significant possibility of a breakdown and accumulation under 28$ before going to new highs.
Look for a 3rd wave of sell offs with volume, to find the range for more accumulation
