CARZ trade ideas
Auto industry likely to inflect downward from hereManufacturing has been a red-hot sector lately, and the CARZ auto ETF has been a beneficiary of that boom. The latest manufacturing data out today show continued outperformance by this sector, which I suppose is why CARZ is up today:
Empire State index: 17
Price of imported industrial supplies: +3.6%
Manufacturing output: +1%
When you drill into the data, however, it doesn't look as good for automakers. While overall manufacturing output is up 1%, output for auto manufacturers was down 3.7% in August. Another relevant data point from the August CPI report is that the price of used cars rose 5.4% in August. So it looks like the growing number of permanently unemployed workers, now deprived of stimulus checks and unemployment benefits, are starting to tighten their belts and reduce large expenditures. August credit card spend deteriorated in August, -13% YoY vs -12.3% the previous month. Consumer lending has tightened up as well, with banks opting to buy bonds rather than make loans.
MOTOR INDUSTRY: IT'S DOWN, DOWN, DOWN FROM HEREMotor Cars are obsolescent technology. They promised transport to any destination at any time of day or night. The present reality is gridlock, destinations inacessible, unsustainable road building, air pollution. E-cars are not the answer, but a new transport technology of capsules travelling in tubes, described at krunchiescab.blogspot.ie The Motor Industry will go into severe decline until it embraces this new technology.
Global AutoIndex, $CARZElliottWave Ending Diagonal, ready to head lower. At least reasonable size IV wave should be under progress. In next larger degree not marked to the chart it is possible IV is missing for upside, but at least for several weeks if not a month this should be bearish sign for most car makers.