WEED CRONOS BUBBLE STOCK DEAD CAT BOUNCE?Current bubble ready to fall
Possible dead cat bounce ongoing
CRON trade ideas
CRON daily IB on watch tomorrowCRON hourly chart is a tightening range as bulls wait for the rest of the sector and the market to get it s bounce underway. Bulls are holding up very well and are well positioned for a move back to test our only two daily resistances if the market and the rest of the sector get a bounce going
CRON backtests previous resistance as support - will it hold?CRON saw the anticipated hourly pullback to cool off RSI levels and backtested previous resistance as support. Key level support is the low of the day, and key resistance is the high of the afternoon bounce.
Keep in mind the past 10 weeks have been an incredibly bullish market environment, which is perfect for MJ bull runs to thrive in. We've been seeing weakness for the past few days and if this weakness in the S&P500 continues, that will have downward pressure on the MJ sector as a whole. Never lose sight of what the overall market is doing!
CRON: Tolerance for Higher HighsCRON was downgraded to a hold earlier in the month because an analyst felt that the price action needed to cool off to prevent a bubble from forming. I'm seeing some smoke signals that the steam is beginning to build up again on this one. There's a very clear cup and handle going on here, and I don't think CRON has run its price too far up yet. I was holding when it caught fire, and I scaled in early in the morning before it really lit up to get some good profits on a day that the broad market indexes were flat to slightly down with a stop of 22.50 to catch half of what I made today if it drops 5%. I expect it's a strong indication of a single day breakout if it falls that hard, and it won't even come close to that if it's going to continue upward. I hope today's volume spike is followed up with another because the timid have been selling their profits off in after hours trading, but not hard enough to make me believe I'll get faked out on my stop by some wily desk trader or quant algo out there.
RSI is rising but still below the overbought 75 threshold. MACD is positive with a rising negative histogram, so this is still an early sign that investors should watch for fast signs of sharp pullback if this is just a one day run up. Directional momentum is showing +DI still holding out over -DI and the two are diverging again sharply with an ADX over 25 showing that the current bullish trend is in place and could quickly take back off again. Money flow is still tepidly negative from the analyst downgrade, but it's rising sharply and the contrarian investor in me says that's a sure sign of strong upward movement. Momentum has continued to be strong on this one since late December, and I don't expect that to change unless we actually see a strong correction or bear market sometime between mid-March to April, and I'm not sure there will be another bear market without a real reason for one that's not just the bad news bears digging up whatever possible bad news they can to spark up another correction before Summertime.
On the fundamentals side, CRON's deal with ACB to sell a piece of Whistler for shares has these two now joined at the hip under the MO umbrella. Analysts are talking up ACB like a street hustler, so ACB may be heating up again after alienating investors (myself included) with their last round of share dilution. Perhaps this will calm investors and also provide a pair trading possibility, but more time will be needed long term to be able to calculate the pair association between these two companies.
CRON also has an earning call announced for later this month on March 26, so we'll have some hints in the next couple of weeks how it will react to earnings. If it spikes up hard prior to the call, I'll take profit and run, and if it dips slightly before, I'm hanging on for dear life with reasonable stops. I hope to retain this current basket longer term than I have, but I'll hold a short-term stop set to retain my profits until they get sky high and then it's time for the long term rodeo with a parabolic stop and reverse risk management strategy taking over.
CRON may test all time high of $25.Sharp gain followed by consolidation and accumulation, forming a bull flag. If price breaks $22, it may retest $25 ATH. If rejected at $22, it may retest $19.
CRON key bull break take sout two daily resistancesAll time high test is coming this week, but the hourly chart is very extended and needs a new hourly support to be established. The only resistance left from here is our all time high. CGC is in a similar pattern but hasn't yet broke, so we're watching for that potential tomorrow
CRON bo , long Watch CRON is STRONG again nice 5min pattern breakout.
Watch it reach his target in the A point in the next few days.
More of my strategy:
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WEED STOCKSSS: CRONHey everyone, in my portfolio I have added a good bunch of stocks and I will be sharing my positions, very small positions via options all expiring on the 15th of March. Currently the market is a little shaky, right at the point of buyer exhaustion but also mixed with fomo of this trade deal coming out very well with China. So what am I even talking about? Well a group or sector of stocks typically do well when the market begins to act shaky and those are weed stocks and utilities. I am focusing on weed stocks as I have profited greatly before and I have also been a week early from the bottom before the huge multi day rips. The chart is pretty self explanatory, we are in a triangle of consolidation that is currently breaking out after a wild run already in January and February. CRON and ACB are of my top watch in weed plays CGC and NBEV are lagging a bit but also good to keep watch or have light positions. Goodluck and have fun!!! No targets on this just play accordingly.
CRON - Bearish signals flashingWith the delayed then delayed again earnings report, and a release of news today on selling of their stake in Whistler to ACB, I have to ask myself "Why? Why would a company take this sort of action while preparing a balance sheet?".
This setup could be the “fake and break” where large funds have pushed a stock to new highs, sucked in the retail crowd, and could now begin unloading shares. What do we know about CRON and the MA deal? The price of the offering was $12.25 per share. After this announcement and the recover rally in January, CRON skyrocketed deep into overbought territory. Just pick any day on StockTwits and read the bullish craze and hysteria flowing through the forum. I want people to succeed, but stepping back from this situation objectively there are a variety of red flags to consider.
Professional analysts reduced the weighting on the stock last week. Looking at the fundamentals and looking at the technicals below, I’d be very very cautious purchasing at these levels. Given the market volatility today, and the sell the news mentality that could shift this rally into correction, I’m setting up for another short. Especially act cautiously if there's another signal from the major indices. Watch for chop and wait for confirmation, but be prepared for anything.
Technicals:
Elliot correction wave, final wave down before the next impulse
Bearish Divergence on Volume
Bearish Divergence on RSI
MACD Sloping down with increase in bearish histogram
Stochastic crossover developing on the daily after 3/4
Squeeze indicator (although spotty accuracy) showing bearish turn as of 3/4
CRON: Gap Down Today, Short On Down Open TomorrowI've enjoyed making profits on the new alternative harvest stocks, and I've been watching MJ as my industry benchmark. CRON seems to trade the best for me of all the tickers I've tried, but I took profit a couple of days ago and you might want to consider doing so now if you haven't already. Advanced traders would benefit from a box collar, but I'm not comfortable with options and am not comfortable limiting myself to even lot actions at this time. Short selling opportunities are there, but be careful of the rapidly changing headwinds of this sector and a high level of trader greed keeping the prices artificially high. Fundamentals in this industry have huge revenues that are only beginning to be realized, so a lot of investors are capitalizing on long term growth outlooks with strong cash flow support even with insane cash expenditures in building new logistics operations across highly regulated international boundaries.
CRON keeps posting winning gains, but I was watching a falling volume and falling price strength. RSI has ridding almost up to 90, so I've been careful to watch any downward crossings through 60 and that got hit today. The MACD is falling with the histogram increasing with a downward divergence. Directional movement shows a declining upward trend with falling ADX that's still above 40 indicating a stronger long term uptrend, falling +DI indicating the short term uptrend rapidly losing steam, and rising -DI showing that we're beginning to see short term lows. Today's downward gap may take a while to fill back up, and I'm looking at 21.25 and 19.75 as short term resistance and support levels. A downward breakout will further support at 18.50, but it could go back down as far at 16.00 if investors get frightened and retreat back into the sunny S&P500 pastures again.
I'm not comfortable shorting this sector due to the over abundance of optimism and high hopes for the pot stocks, but I did exit my long position on Friday at a stop of 22.25 for a tidy end of week profit. If the bulls win out this week and the price closes above 21.25 for atleast two consecutive days, expect the short term to meet additional resistance at 23.25 being the rounded highest end of day price which was only reached at the beginning of this month. Short interest is rising that indicates an increasing pessimism, so treat short term rallies as short squeezes and be ready to exit quickly with your profits if you intend to keep them.
CRON - CRON looking pretty good here. Support at both the trendline and 12-day EMA around 19.60 ish. A little bit of resistance around 21.90, but RSI is above the 50-line. Positive Stoch cross. Keeping with this trend could have us seeing a new ATH soon. Volume will be the key thing to watch, as always.
This setup is invalidated if we break trendline support. The next support will be the 50-day EMA which is currently around 17.00. If that support holds, it would make a good entry price for a swing back into the 19-20 area.
CRON higher low set, likely to continue tightening Cron is likely to top out below resistance, watching for this pattern to continue to tighten with a break later this week or most likely next week
CRON Short TSX Re-test of $25 is coming. Lets see if it penetrates.
Double top formed after CGC ER catalyst move.
Great short entry at $24.80 if confirmation wanted and a more aggressive strategy at this level toward $25 if fade strategy is in play.
I am shorting 200 shares at 27.32 holding till $25 to fade if it breaks through I'll add. Stop is at $27.60.
$CRON - looking increasingly weak. possible retracement$CRON is starting to look very weak here. RSI is weaker and curling down on the daily along with the stoch RSI. potential lower high made on the daily chart. Next week will confirm direction.
CRON looking for a lower high below all time highCRON is likely to form a lower high soon and come back to test a new level above recent daily support at 25.00. Watch for a close below the hourly 12 EMA and a break of low of the previous day
still possible for more short squeeze action. short term time frames still trending up albeit on very low volumes showing a very low supply (or demand?). With a short interest hovering around 25%, there is still a possibility for another short squeeze considering how much the short interest has grown. Further increase in the price will force shorters to cover on what they thought was full proof short.
Until the downtrend is confirmed, risky to shore still. If one is still strongly inclined to short, id buy put options with long expiry dates (late 2019)
CRON and MO Deal - Dilution Could Trigger Correction PeriodThe next few days are critical for CRON as the MO deal will signal to the shareholders where this company is headed. Either way, any dilution or sentiment thereof could trigger this thing into correction territory. Looks to me like we've had 2 waves thus far within a larger cycle present since the inception of the ticker. I'll trade the reaction either way, but am in no way long-term on this company.
MACD cooling off
RSI cooling off
Room for another leg-up
Lots of room for another leg-down
Good luck!
I have a love-hate relationship with CRON, as it's parabolic and over-extended. Previous shorts were a success, but pull-back was much more ferocious than expected and stopped out on squeezes.
I'd be bullish if the fundamental factors didn't depend so largely on international trade agreements and hopes for US legalization. The catalysts are strong in sentiment, but hyped as far as the numbers play out from any serious economic analysis I've seen. Would love to be shown otherwise though! Some call it the big long, I'm looking to short the pull-backs for now. If US legalization occurs, that will be another story.
mean reversionMomentum cannabis play overshooting generous analyst price targets ( most recent: GMP -> $18.27 on 2/05/19, CIBC -> $16.54 on 1/17/19, Eight Capital -> $12.03 on 1/08/19).
Strongest of $MJ sector in 2019.
CRON 4hr eq tighteningPotential 4hr lower high set Friday, watching for a break of those resistances or a pullback to test a new support above 25
