CRON Earnings PlayLots of hype and positive sentiment should move all MJ names to the upside into the following weeks, CRON is no exception. CRON is set to post earnings pre-market on Friday, 2/22/19. As of Monday, 2/18/19 according to the OPTIONS chain, speculators are more interested in the CALLS @ $23.00 strike price with volume at 1742 as open interest is at 1665. As of the date of this writing CRON is a mere 16.42% from All Time Highs with just a few levels of resistance to punch through. Looking at the daily chart those levels are $21.89, and the physiological levels, $22.00, 23.00 and $24.00 respectively. If you look at the weekly its been nothing but green candles from October 2018 (Canadian Legalization), then the Earnings report on November 13 (which were not that strong) all the way up to week before last when a red candle printed. Revisiting that previous red candle week we see that we gapped up at the open into blue sky breakout and made it all the way to $25.10 ATH just after lunch time. At that point consolidation was in order settling down to put in a lower low. With the exception of a few outlying lows, since February 6 we have been in a tightening range on the 1 Hour chart moving into this week indicating to me we are about to pop one way or another.
Outlook: Moving into the earnings to be reported pre-market this Friday we can't ignore the increased selling into close last week. RSI levels are cooling off, and by zooming into the 5 minute chart we can see we have some work to do at the open tomorrow 2/18. We have solid support down at $21.22 and all indicators reflect a possible gap up at the open and all eyes will be on how much resistance we can bust through by the time the algos figure out a direction for the day. For me I will be eying the MJ sector overall strength (CGC, ACB, TLRY and MJ ETF) to gauge sector strength and closely watching the SPY as it continues to provide tailwinds with its continuous strength. The play I'm looking for will be to buy cheap Calls if we fall through support. I will look to buy the $22.50 Strike Calls into strength or perhaps scoot up the chain to the $24.5 strike if we break through $23.92 resistance.
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing I do not have a position in CRON. This trade idea is for educational purposes only, I am not a financial advisor, do not follow me or anyone else for that matter blind into a trade. No one loves your money as much as you do, do your own due diligence and seek professional financial advice when necessary.
CRON trade ideas
CRON Retracement and possible move upCRON retraced some of its move up and seemed to find support. Will be watching EMAs and MACD for confirmation. Any strong price action to the upside will have me looking for a move past $30.
This setup is invalidated if we break below support at the .618 retracement.
Bull vs Bear, Bearish signals, bullish speculation rallyA late rally in the day occurred after the congressional hearing on bank access began. The outcome of this hearing was unfortunately dubious. I think tomorrow’s action will be largely following the general market trend plus the CGC action, which could go sideways again if they cancel one another out! Be careful, enter positions wisely and be aware of all the factors moving these stocks.
Too pricey for me to enter a long position. I’m skeptically bullish and optimistically bearish, as I think the panic sell-off would be more profitable than a speculative bounce. We shall see. The short volume is less moving into tomorrow and I think the last few rallies were not actual buying pressure, but short covering and day-trading speculation. You could see this with EOD sell-offs.
Institutions are too smart to buy at these levels. It makes the day-trading bulls angry, but there is a long road ahead for marijuana legalization. I've been bearish since last week, was humbled by short-covering and am sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better setup to emerge.
Technicals:
MACD below the signal line
Bearish momentum on the histogram
Bearish confirmation on the signal lines today
Historically this confirmation has been false and signaled an uptrend after consolidation/correction (Sept 2018), but be cautious.
Fib levels are roughly being followed with 20.84 resistance and 18.03 support as my current levels.
CRON ShortAfter hitting its high, CRON has been in a downtrend for about a week and a half. The stock seems to be over valued and is trying to correct itself. Trend showing lower highs with similar lows showing a clear support. If trend breaks under the current support, that can be a good entry point for shorts. I think it is very possible to see the price break the current support due to the downward crossing of the 15 day EMA and the 180 day SMA.
CRON looking good on the hourly setupHi, having trouble with the hotel wifi as I'm on vacation skiing in beautiful Lake Louise AB so I'm not doing videos tonight. CRON's hourly setup is looking pretty good, having broken a resistance level and now setting a higher low on the hourly. Bulls need to break 27.31 first thing tomorrow to try to make their way back up to recent highs, a failure to do so will give us another hourly lower high and have us looking back down to 25.00 support. In that scenario we would look for the bulls to find a support above that level and to form a tightening hourly equilibrium into the end of the week.
If CRON breaks resistance and the rest of the sector cannot break theirs, be careful of a fakeout on that bull break similar to the one we saw last week where bulls broke resistance but couldn't get any followthrough with the rest of the sector not able to break the same key level.
Don't Buy When High. Wait For These Supports First.This chart shows the support levels that we are waiting for in order to sell more put options in our cannabis portfolio (green boxes). The evaluation goes beyond just reaching a support level because it also involves analyzing how price reacts when it gets there. For example: IF a bullish pin bar develops at one of these specific supports, then we have a good reason to sell a put. One of the reasons our cannabis portfolio has done well is because of the inflated premiums offered by these relatively cheap stocks.
CRON update - CHOP Current Pos: Short Apr18 $20 USD puts. Scaled down to 1/3 Position Friday Close.
Idea: Locked in profits from Short in case of bullish ACB earnings (Guide down could pull an AAPL). if ACB bullish, looking for bounce to play weekly calls intraday. Will reload puts on strength, any rally likely to fade going into CGC earnings. Still a good chance this runs into CRON earnings (est Feb 22nd) sector sentiment still divided. Macro eyes on China reopening and possible gov't shutdown 15th.
Sure Looks like Gold at the turn of the 2000sLooks very similar to chart of gold in early 2000s patterns are everywhere in the markets and weed is the green gold so wouldnt surprise me at all if shorts dont get squeezed in an epic way here. Volume in between 20 and 25 was out of this world on buying so im not sold on market sentiment of bear seems to me stocks do the opposite of sentiment. Just my 2 cents! Thanks for Reading if you made it this far lol Also this is for educational purposes only
CRON on a downtrend, RSI Cooling, MACD DivergenceThis could be the first leg of a bearish divergence, with multiple signals showing signs of buyer exhaustion. The hype that pushed CRON to these levels violates all fundamentals, and was doomed for a sharp sell-off. The MACD is diverged on the daily, and without a catalyst would signal a further sell-off. Ichimoku base-line was breached today and the small gap from last week's rally filled. The base-line would either be a good entry point for tomorrow, or further downtrend would signal the next entry point at the top of the signal line on the cloud.
I'm looking for a potential attempted green day tomorrow morning from die-hard bulls, followed by a further sell-off approaching the 17.5 range by Friday. If this occurs, seller exhaustion could trigger a short-term day trader's rally next week that would further confirm the bearish divergence if volume doesn't hold out. It all depends on expectation of earnings and other new catalysts, but there's a lot of negatives now weighing in with the overall sector.
How hard of a sell-off tomorrow is determined by sentiment, but with everything going on the past two months I would watch out for entering any new positions in CRON (or in any of the MJ's for that matter) now. Take some profits or average down if you're in it for the long game.