5/9/25 - $ctlp - Buy sub $8, but nuanced5/9/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CTLP
Buy sub $8, but nuanced
- cash generative, normalized mid single digits FCF yield
- vending/ micro markets are part of the dystopian future we're headed towards, these guys have pole position and growing DD even in tough environment
- ST hiccup had to do with weather (though I take that comment w a grain of salt b/c i've dealt w/ co's that blame their own issues on things like this... but for now i'll give it a pass unless they do it again)
- EBITDA mgns can scale toward mid 20s w/ growth still S-curving, healthy in the teens for the coming years
- so while a 500 mm cap company requires execution and i can't convincingly take this larger until i do more work...
- i can add this as a 1% position to my book here at $7.7 and sell the june 20 $7.5 calls (so that's the strategy i've been pursuing if you've followed me in the last month or so)... so taking some upside off the table, willing to protect some downside for a co i'd like to own lower all else equal for high single digit implied MoM return
- lmk if you have a more nuanced view here
- but i like the "scarce" type of asset these guys represent in an otherwise competitive "fintech" payments world. there's a clear differentiation here, even if the model is (by definition) more capital intensive.
V
