CVGW trade ideas
Fascinating Avocado's MarketLet me just walk you through my idea or perhaps my dream, I was half conscious bye the way when I suddenly had this idea. I've always loved avocado's, I'm even blessed to have an avocado tree in my Home, the idea was, why don't I buy a portion of land, take the seeds of my Avocado tree (Green skin) and plant about 150 trees, according to one source; "it is possible for an avocado tree to produce 200 to 300 fruit per tree if it is about 5-7 years of age" so that is +-30,000 avocados on that 150 trees but believe or not that's nothing compared to the top players of this industry, which I honestly admit I wasn't ready for what's about hit me. The Avocado market cap is valued at $12.8 Billion and has been estimated to reach more than $17.9 Billion by 2025, according to statistic.com, prices have reached $2.10 for a single avocado (Hass) in 2019 making it the most expensive fruit out there, which is very aligned to Calavo Growers/CVGW's chart, a public company listed on Nasdaq, market cap $1,36 Billion, stock value = $76.75 as of now, that's a -28.94% decline from Q4 2018.
It is important to know since 2009, Calavos value has outpaced the NASDAQ, more than doubling the index's increase in growth in 2018, according to one source. But enough about the stock, what's astonishing is how steady the avocado market is, technically speaking. Not even mentioning that avocado mkt cap surpasses ABSA bank Mkt cap which is valued at $7.08 Billion, crazy isn't it.
My research consisted analysis of balance sheets. income statements, etc... which I came to conclusion that; it is worth investing on the avocado sector, "long-term" but you don't just buy a stock because it sounds good and the numbers look good, you invest according to what the price is telling you that's why I've implicated the Elliott theory to expose the momentum or even possible execution prices.
Short-term trade on CVGW: Short position, according to my analysis a new trend has transpired which the possible target price = $67.72. Disclosure: APPLY RISK MANAGEMENT WHENEVER YOU EXECUTE A TRADE PROVIDED ANYONE, I AM NOT RELIABLE TO YOUR LOSS.
CVGW: Ascending Triangle, awaiting confirmationAscending Triangle, waiting confirmation
Pros:
R/R ratio above 10
Descending volume during formation
Volume at break out
PPS crossed 200MA at break out.
PPS above 50MA and 200MA
ATR ascending, more volatility
RS ascending and above 0
Cons:
200MA descending
250RSI below 50
Gap filled at 71,64. May reverse back down
If confirmed, Target:
PT1=71,64 (watch out, red line. may reverse on gap fill)
PT2=76,43
PT3=80,64
PT4=85,25
Bonus PT5=92,01
Bonus PT6=97,49
Buy Alert for CVGWMy WT Cross Strategy has alerted me to a buy signal for Calavo Growers INC.(CVGW), at a price of $95.10 using a 180-min time frame. My idea is to buy the dip, at price below $95.10. I will update when I get the signal to close the trade.
I am using the following parameters for this trade:
Channel Length - 753
Average Length - 1
Average Length - 23
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I have a Pro+ subscription for Tradingview, so this gives me access to more data than someone with a free or even a lower tier sub. More data should enable me to construct a more robust model, so your mileage may vary if you are trying to use this strategy for a free account. Please use caution, and be advised. Good Luck All!