4/11/25 - $gamb - Dare I say... obvious buy?4/11/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:GAMB
Dare I say... obvious buy?
- as the 10Y is begging for YCC or some sort of YELP! from the money changers and mouth breathers this weekend...
- here's a name that makes money in a non-tariff exposed way. "yuh but V ppl r poor". yes. and sadly, many ppl will gamble more. it's just what happens.
- FCF yields are in the TEENS here. even in a '26 normalized situation (and the money printers WILL go burr at that pt), really? 17% FCF yield? if they execute let's say that gets priced at 10% FCF yield (nevermind the cash that's produced in '25)... that's a stock that's 50-100% higher, simplistically. even let's discount the next 12 mo at 50%.... so 25-50% higher?
- it's a smaller cap. so clearly subject to factor flows in a tide/ liquidity go out situation. big gap in the high $10s and even the one right below $9/shr not lost on me.
- but at the current valuation, cash generation/ margin execution, founder led.. M&A oppty etc. etc. I think i'm already buying a dollar for 50c and i'd love for that risk/reward to get improved.
- it's also a pretty rentable stock as the stock waffles. i've now rented a pile of the $12.5 strike calls twice (4/17 will be my next "dividend"). and i intend to continue doing this not because i enjoy leaving what i think are massive upside potential on the table, but just because i gotta play defense (unfortunately) in this current environment.
- 12% position for me on this one today. i'd love to make it 15-20% if we go another leg down in risk in the coming weeks/ months ahead.
minimally put it on your radar. i'd love to hear the opposite POV or any pushback (please!)
have a good weekend.
V
