GGAL Long-Term Investment and the Cup & Handle PatternGrupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) is one of the largest financial groups in Argentina, primarily operating in banking, insurance, and investment services. As an ADR (American Depositary Receipt) traded on the NASDAQ and BYMA (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange), GGAL often attracts both local and international investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s financial sector.
The Cup & Handle Pattern in GGAL
The Cup and Handle is a classic bullish continuation pattern in technical analysis. It consists of two phases:
The Cup – The stock price forms a rounded bottom after a downtrend or consolidation period, showing a recovery in price.
The Handle – A short consolidation phase follows, where the price moves sideways or slightly downward before breaking out.
GGAL trade ideas
(BATS:GGAL+BATS:BMA+BATS:SUPV+BATS:BBAR)/(BATS:NU+BATS:ITUB+BATSThe ratio between Argentine banks (numerator) and Brazilian banks (denominator) has reached historic highs and continues to rise. Banks like Galicia and Supervielle have increased their value tenfold since their all-time lows ( NASDAQ:GGAL , NYSE:SUPV ). Meanwhile, Banco Macro and Banco Francés ( NYSE:BMA , NYSE:BBAR ) have grown eightfold from their lowest points.
In contrast, Brazilian banks remain at minimum levels, with prices close to those recorded during the Corona-crash. For instance, NYSE:BBD (Banco do Bradesco) is currently trading at 2.38 per ADR, very near the 2.20 low reached during the pandemic. This scenario reflects four years of sideways movement—a period of accumulation similar to what Argentina experienced between August 2019 and October 2023. Precisely four years. We believe this cycle of accumulation in Brazil may have come to an end.
For those considering investing in Brazil through the EWZ index, it’s important to note its high weighting in companies like the mining giant NYSE:VALE and Petrobras ( NYSE:PBR ), which are heavily tied to commodities. While these companies are highly representative of Brazil’s market, they are not at their lows and show a sideways-to-downward trend from both technical and fundamental perspectives.
On the other hand, we see greater value in assets that are at their lows, such as Banco do Bradesco ( NYSE:BBD ), steel producer Gerdau ( NYSE:GGB ), and steelmaker NYSE:SID , among others. Based on both graphical analysis and the broader context, these companies appear to have the highest potential for future growth and the best revaluation percentages.
Additionally, the macroeconomic context highlights the differences between the two countries. The Brazilian real is on a devaluation trend, while the Argentine peso has appreciated. This translates into contrasting stock markets: when Argentina had a USD/ARS exchange rate of 1,500, the country was booming with tourists, costs were low, and the stock market reflected this affordability. Today, with Argentina being an expensive country (even more expensive than the U.S.), its stock market is also costly.
In contrast, Brazil, with a USD/BRL exchange rate of 5.70, shows a cheap stock market aligned with its current economic conditions. However, we emphasize the importance of acting cautiously when investing, carefully evaluating each stock's situation.
Argentinian Banks Present Us w/ a Short SignalI've been watching Buenos Aires based bank stock BBAR for a while now, ever since I noticed that it was the Argentinian ADR with the closest correlation to the Merval. I noticed it coiling up for some event that I wasn't paying too much attention to (the World Cup-- please, don't judge, I'm an American) and ever since Messi scored those goals Argentinian stocks have gone absolutely vertical. FOMO set in quickly, and I've been salivating at a topfish for the past couple months. Head and shoulder after double top after false breakdown after moving average crossover. But finally I think we can see the triple top on all of these names. Shown here are BMA and GGAL, but really this applies to all these ADR's, such as YPF and TEO. The Merval itself reached a double top. Why? Listen. Argentina's economy has a bright future because of its natural resources and work ethic, but man does its fiscal situation need some paternal scolding. Join currencies with Brazil? Don't strengthen the peso, other countries love your cheap exports! Anyway, the market is communicating this message to us. If you'd like to profit from this disfunction, now is your chance. Hopefully after this short's performance Direxion will create a 3x Bear Argentina MERVAL ETN.
GGAL retesting the 7U$D?After a very profitable breakout is now trending down. The pullback to the EMA200 is acting as a down-trending confirmation. I think this move will end in the 7 US area which is a very important range.
I will take the trade if the price close below the orange trendline. The SL will be above the fridays highest price.
How to trade this stock as we approach it’s earning reportWe have seen wave 1,2,3 and 4. Now I am expecting wave 5. Looks like wave 4 is completing and we may possibly start to see the beginning of wave 5. The price action now proves it. Thank you for always supporting the ideas I post here. Don't forget to click the like if you do and share this with all your friends. Trade with profits.
GGAL ADR buy soon#TigrePartners
Varias señales fuertes:
- RSI por debajo de la linea de 30, que indica sobrevendido., cruzandola hacia arriba volviendo a la media (amarillo)
- ADX confirmando una muy fuerte tendencia (azul)
- DMI define la tendencia: tendencia roja bajista volviendo a la media, tendencia alcista ni arranco (lo agarrariamos re temprano)
- Precio en 7.06, alcanzando el minimo historico de COVID-19 Abril !! (Fue un ADR tendencia groso pre-virus) Para adelante solo le veo upside, o sigue en baja un poco mas algnos dias y rebota forchi
NYSE:GGAL - La nave insignia del Merval en problemasNi las buenas noticias de la renegociación de la deuda parecen hacer reaccionar al título más importante del mercado argentino. A punto de perder el canal alcista que empezó a construir luego de la caída por la pandemia del COVID-19. Es importante que defina soporte en la zona de 9.74, aunque el aftermarket del 11/9 la ubicaban ya en 9.72. De no mostrar reacción en los primeros días de la semana del 14/9, para al menos definir una nueva tendencia lateral, podemos esperar bajas hasta la zona de 7.82