Biotech ETF Tests the 50-day SMABiotechnology has been one of the stronger sectors this year. It’s benefited from the combination of Covid treatment hopes (vaccines + therapeutics), and the macro backdrop (low rates/negative GDP).
As we highlighted earlier in the month, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index ETF broke out to new highs in late June and has been holding its ground above those peaks. Today it chopped back down to test $135, which has emerged as support since our last post. (That $135 line is also near intraday peaks a few times in May.)
The other big line is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). IBB recently bounced there, and now prices are revisiting it.
This idea isn’t super fancy, but these are classic patterns in a sector that could make sense fundamentally. Biotechs are a long-term secular growth story. Long-term trend followers may like the risk/reward near the confluence of these flat lines and the 50day SMA.
IBB trade ideas
Biotechnology Stocks Have Broken OutEveryone’s attention is focused on today’s strong jobs report, but an under-the-radar sector is breaking out: biotechnology.
The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index ETF hit new 52-week highs before the rest of the Nasdaq. And it wasn’t just any old breakout. It was the first move above $130 since mid-2015: a historic push to important long-term levels.
IBB did something similar in early 2012, closing above its previous high from 2001. It then proceeded to run more than 300 percent before halting.
The daily chart has provided some confirmation of the uptrend continuing. After making a new 52-week high in April, it briefly tested below and snapped right back. Then in mid-June when the market had a brief crash, buyers defended IBB’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
And now in the last two weeks, IBB has broken above and held $133.60, the previous all-time high from five years ago. Has old resistance become new support?
Finally, it’s important to consider the macro backdrop: healthcare was already in a secular growth phase because of innovation and ageing populations. The prospect of coronavirus treatments is another positive. Then add a weak economic environment and low interest rates by the Federal Reserve. All of those conditions are supportive for a non-cyclical sector like biotechnology.
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Big Biotechs Ascending TriangleIBB is forming an ascending triangle, which is a continuation pattern after the breakout.
Important to note the 20sma, which has been very supportive in the trend. The is also some support we can see many candlesticks with bottom wicks, meaning the shorts were met with buyers very quickly.
Biotech is where the cool kids are doing!What I see...
+ Prices pulled back from $136 to find support from the rising 10ma
+ Friday's bar painted a bullish engulf-like body within a NR7 on very low volume! This is like a spring that is compressed and getting ready to bounce!
+ RSI is at 61 and has just turned upward
+ MACD is flat in the bullish zone
- MACD is technically below signal line
- $136 is first resistance
What I setup...
+ Long entry above Friday's high
- Stop under last week's low
+ Target at 1.618Fib
:: Duration - weeks!
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IBB - reached forecasted target and should correctIBB reached the target we forecasted on May 6 and at this stage it should have completed primary wave 5. It should now start a correction that can take it to new lows. The alternative scenario would be that we would see a minor correction to around 115 before trend to new highs. However, in both cases prices should follow the path to at least arounf the most probable target of 115. If prices crosses up 136 this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
IBB - Biotech ETF could offer good potentialIBB seems to have starting minor wave 5 up that could lead its price to the most probable target of 134.00. This sector should be be one of the good options to be in during the current market scenario. If prices crosses down 199.70, this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
IBB breakout comingIBB is ready to revisit the highs of 133 made in July 2015, after a 4x increase since 2011 which was the equivalent of the dot-com bubble.
Assuming that pandemic issues are going to be a recurring catalyst, biotech could be ready to take again the mantle of market leader from technology (maybe it is a relay?).
Anyway, it seems a cup-and-handle breakout from 130s is ready to go (supported by increased volume, and the fact the ATR is back to its highs).