ILMN trade ideas
Illumina Inc UpdatePrice broke out of the corrective structure on earnings. Bullish! Got a nice entry at around 172$ per share.
ILMN - ShortThis would be the fourth time ILMN stock price falls quickly and substantially, if it happens. The top price of approximately $190 did not hit the two point trend line set up by past highs. In the past four times it fell quickly and without warning. Will it happen again? It appears it might since the current price fluctuations are lower than the established on May 5th, 2017 and appear to be heading in an increasing descending pattern. Also, the EPS estimate has dropped and the price earning multiple is very high! The bottom trend line has been touched in the last four downturns and is descending. I look forward to your thoughts. Thanks.
Illumina Corp - Failing Head and shouldersPrevious chart is linked below.
On the weekly chart, there is a massive head and shoulders pattern which just keeps failing to break below the neckline. This was the 3rd attempt at a break below, and it looks to me like this is a clear rejection, again. In theory, when a H&S pattern fails to break, the target for it is the top of the head. However, I labeled a first target at the shoulder line, where there is strong support. If that breaks, I am looking for the high at $240. As for the setup itself, there is a bullish engulfing candle with decent volume after a big fall, a class a big bullish divergence on the MACD, a deeply oversold Force Index and climactic volume on the Wave Volume.
On the daily chart, there is a very deep class A bullish divergence that formed right at the neckline. I labeled the day this setup was confirmed, however, I find it very difficult from a psychological standpoint to enter before a close above support, which happened on the 15th.
SOFT stop below the neckline, with a first target at the shoulder line.
Illumina and the 132$ support lineAfter having hit again its 132$ support it is time for $ILMN to initiate a new bullish rallye
122 days to close the gap? Illumina is bullish since 2012. We have seen a huge buying wave which started 2012 at 25 $ and reached till 240$ in 2015! After building this top, we can see a consolidation phase which reached down to the 0,5 fibo at 133,745$. Perhaps a Big Bearish H&S will be formed. The neckline is corresponding to the central Support Level. (TPs from this H&S could be: Min TO 74$/ Max TP: 19$ - this is a pure technical view, not my view :-))
These days we could read bad News - the consequence of this bad momentum is a huge and ugly downgap - similar to my former view.
Former view:
Bottom x 4 vs. Triangle
Buy - Sell? Good question , no matter how you decide, fact is, that we now are trading near a clear action Point: The three times tested support level @ ~ 130$
2 Trades are thinkable:
Buy the support @ 130 --> exspected TPs: 149 / 165
Sell the Break of the Tringle-Support @ 127-130 - exspected TP:100
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In my former view we tried to catch the gap-close - it worked! It took 122 days to fill the former gap.
Will it work again?
Out of this view, the actual gap could be closed february 2017 :-)
What can we see at present?
We can see a trading range between ~130 - 190. After the youngest downgap we have again nearly reached the multiple times tested central Support Level - the Box`s bottom.
If you believe the gap will be closed again, you could open a nice longposition near this mentioned bottom. Here you have a really nice Chance-Risk-Ratio - 7:1!
The Box`s bottom should be supported by the uptrendline which is based at 118$ at present.
If you think about a bigger trendbreak, you could decide to open a shortposition below the central Support Level like illustrated in my former view.
Best Regards Mary
Comments are welcome!
ILMN REGRESSION PLAY? Been watching it for a regression upward play..make your own judgement. Just a heads up. Worth trailing to me.
ILMNAfter making a triple bottom, price came through and broke through the descending trend line.
A pull back to its 21 ema will look for a target of 192
Bottom x 4 vs. TriangleBuy - Sell? Good question , no matter how you decide, fact is, that we now are trading near a clear action Point: The three times tested support level @ ~ 130$
2 Trades are thinkable:
Buy the support @ 130 --> exspected TPs: 149 / 165
Sell the Break of the Tringle-Support @ 127-130 - exspected TP:100
ILLUMINA - Long from necklineA massive H&S pattern on the weekly chart, with a double bottom and double divergence right at the neckline. As of this week, the impulse is blue.
On the daily chart, the double bottom is more obvious. The right time to enter was right after earnings, where Illumina recovered all the overnight losses and closed up for the day. Still, the RRR is acceptable even today.
I would trade this stock as follows: Go long with a stop below the earnings day, with a target for at least half the position just below the 78.6 retracement. The remaining position should be kept in case this proves to be a failed H&S pattern.
