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Daily Market Update for 5/24Summary: Snap Inc. sent an ominous signal to the market by reducing guidance, causing tech and growth stocks to sell off heavily in the morning before recovering some of the losses. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 24, 2022 Facts: -2.35%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 66%, Body: 24% Red Good: Good closing range over long lower wick Bad: Lower high, lower low, higher volume on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin red body in upper part of candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.3, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.81%), DJI (+0.15%), RUT (-1.56%), VIX (+3.41%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +2.00%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.64%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.57%) and Communications (XLC -3.55%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Snap Inc. sent an ominous signal to the market by reducing guidance, causing tech and growth stocks to sell off heavily in the morning before recovering some of the losses. The Nasdaq fell by -2.35% on higher volume than the previous day. The long lower wick was created at open as key economic metrics missed the forecast. However, the index recovered some of the loss and closed with a 66% closing range. The 24% red body sits at the top of the candle. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was able to finish the day with a gain, advancing +0.15%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.81%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -1.56%. The VIX Volatility Index increased by +3.41%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained, led by defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +2.00%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.64%) were at the top of the list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.57%) and Communications (XLC -3.55%) were at the bottom, with the former being impacted by Snap's news. Manufacturing PMI data for May met the forecast of 57.5 but the Services PMI fell short, coming in at 53.5 compared to the forecast of 5.2. The PMI data is a signal of economic activity within these two sectors. New Home Sales for April also came in lower than expected. There were only 591,000 new home sales compared to the forecast of 750,000. The previous month was 709,000. The new number shows a significant slowdown. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was higher than expected. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to decline, dropping by -0.32% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y yields were all lower. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were higher, tracking with treasury prices. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.903. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in the Extreme Fear range. All of the big six mega-caps declined, with Facebook (FB) dropping the most, losing -7.62% today. Microsoft (MSFT) held up the best, declining only -0.40%. Verizon (VZ) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +2.03%. Consumer Staples and Health mega-caps dominated the rest of the top ten. Facebook was at the bottom of the list, followed by Tesla (TSLA) which fell by -6.93%. There was only one gainer in the Daily Update Growth List. Zoom Video (ZM) climbed by +5.61% as its earnings report showed continued growth despite the winding down of the pandemic. After Zoom Video, all the stocks on the growth list fell by more than 2%. Five stocks on the list fell more than 10%, led by Snap Inc (SNAP) which dropped by a huge -43.08%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday will kick off with the Core Durable Goods Orders data for April. After the market opens we will get the Crude Oil Inventories. The FOMC Meeting Minutes from the early May meeting will be available in the afternoon. Nvidia (NVDA), Trip.com (TCOM), and Box Inc (BOX) are a few of the earnings reports for Wednesday. I mistakenly -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued its downtrend but held above Friday's low. After the dip in the morning, the index trended higher the rest of the day. If the one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, we can expect a +0.69% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -1.07% decline. If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would mean a -2.56% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Snap's message of lower guidance due to economic disruptions drove even more fear among investors in tech and growth stocks, resulting in today's sell-off. The bleeding continues, and the only question is when will it stop. Perhaps we will continue to bounce around at this level, or maybe we will move lower. If we can start to see indications of a top to inflation, that will help build more support for gains. Inflation needs to come under control without massive interest rate hikes that will further slow down growth. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/23Summary: Stocks rallied on Monday thanks to a stronger Euro after the European Central Bank said rate hikes would come later this year. Notes I've been traveling for the past two weeks and have not been able to write the Daily Market Update. I'm back at home and will continue covering the markets as often as I can. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 23, 2022 Facts: +1.59%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 93%, Body: 56% Green Good: High closing range Bad: Lower volume on gain, lower high than previous day Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, upper half green body, lower half wick Advance/Decline: 1.07, about the same number of advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.86%), DJI (+1.98%), RUT (+1.10%), VIX (-3.23%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +3.25%) and Energy (XLE +2.64%) at the top. Health (XLV +0.88%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.75%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks rallied on Monday thanks to a stronger Euro after the European Central Bank said rate hikes would come later this year. The Nasdaq rose by +1.59% for the day, but it was not enough to reach the previous day's high. The inside day came with lower volume, but the closing range of 93% and 56% green body in the upper half of the candle is positive. There was a nearly equal number of advancing and declining stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) outperformed the other indexes, gaining by +1.98% while the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced by +1.86%. The Russel 2000 (RUT) climbed by +1.10%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -3.23% but remained elevated as it has been since the beginning of May. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Financials (XLF +3.25%) and Energy (XLE +2.64%) were the best two sectors for today. Health (XLV +0.88%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.75%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by -0.91% and is down 2.5% from its peak in early May. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices moved higher while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Copper and Aluminum Futures continued to rise. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.829. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Fear range. Five of the big six mega-caps advanced. Amazon (AMZN) was the only one to decline but fell just -0.03%. Apple (AAPL) had the biggest gain, advancing +4.01%, followed by Microsoft which moved up by +3.20%. All six have work to do before getting back to their key moving average lines. Financial stocks topped the broader mega-cap list. JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) were the top gainers, advancing +6.19% and +5.94% respectively. Broadcom (AVGO) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -3.10%. There were only four mega-caps that declined. The Daily Update Growth List had some gainers, but overall more than half of the list declined. DoorDash (DASH) topped the list with a +2.39% gain. Peloton (PTON) had the biggest loss, declining by -6.13%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Purchasing Manager Index data for May will be available after the market opens tomorrow. That includes Manufacturing, Services, and Composite measurements. We will also get New Home Sales data for April. Nvidia (NVDA), Trip.com (TCOM), and Box Inc (BOX) are a few of the earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Although the day ended with positive gains, the lower high means the index is still in a down trend. If the one-day trend continues, that would mean a +1.33% gain for Tuesday. If the index returns to the five-day trend line and or the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would result in a -3.86% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been a wild few weeks. Part of me is happy I was on break and didn't report daily. Part of me thinks there was much to learn from the market data and could have benefited. Let's hope for some new highs throughout this week and some gains on higher volume, shared broadly across the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Nasdaq Support HoldsThis is a follow up to my 05/14/22 post "Nasdaq Bottoms at Important Support" . Point & Figure charts objectively define support/resistance. They can also help to filter out false breakouts. On 05/12/22 IXIC made a bottom in its decline from the all-time high made in November 2021. On 05/20/22 IXIC went marginally below its 05/12/22. Could this be the start of a new down phase? Unlikely, because there was no break below the Point & Figure support. There's a high probability that IXIC could have a multi-week rally at least up to the important resistance area illustrated on the chart. Mark
TVC:IXICLong
by markrivest
Nasdaq Extremely OversoldThis is a side-by-side comparison of the Nasdaq daily chart from March 2009 with today (May 2022). The charts are looking very similar to one another. The heatmap on the daily chart has not been this cold since the bottom of the Great Recession. The daily plot is nearing a record low. While this daily chart cannot make long term predictions, it suggests that we are at a bottom right now and the Nasdaq is about to move back up for the coming weeks to months.
TVC:IXICLong
by SpyMasterTrades
Nasdaq Composite Overview for OtosanThis long term trend for Nasdaq is consistent through it's history. This line has acted as the bottom for both the 1990, 2000 and 2020 crashes. The only time Nasdaq went below the line was the 2008 financial crisis. From 2008-2017 the line acted as resistance (top). Here are the two scenarios (Long Term - Years) Bullish: Just like the 3 major crashes - Nasdaq will test this support which shows to be around $10,000. This would be the ultimate time to buy and statistically is the more likely option. In this scenario NASDAQ will pass it's prior high in 2024 or before (50% return). Bearish: If the $10,000 line is broken, there is no trendline and will be near impossible to predict a bottom. If we use 2007-2008 as an example, the market first dropped 20% initially (July 2007 - March 2008) and almost touched the line - the line then failed to support later that year in August. Once this line breaks after a second test or third test, all major investors dump shares as the bottom can no longer be predicted. This is why the market lost 40% from August 2008 - Feb 2009 (or a total of roughly 52% between 2007-2009). Once this happens, people should only reinvest once an uptrend starts to form. To translate this to today's market, the NASDAQ would have lost 30%+ from the tops to reach the $10,000-10,500 line, and would likely have a sharper decline to follow if the trend is broken. Summary Ultimately the tradeoff is either a 50% return in less than 4 years followed by a likely bull run. From strictly a statistic likely hood this is the more likely scenario. However, if NASDAQ breaks the support line, the most commonly used tool to predict bottoms (Fibonacci), the low is estimated to be around $2,875 or an additional 70% drop from $10,000 (80% drop from market high). This may seem exaggerated, but the same tool would have predicted a drop of price of the 2007-2009 bottom at $1,550 which is actually higher than the actual low of around $1,350. Personal Conclusion Strictly looking at chart analysis, the upside is good with the market returning to it's prior high within 4 years. However, as the recent gains were extremely fast and the following downturn was very sharp, there is also a potential of one of the greatest losses in value historically. Now if we look at the current timing and global political climate, from rising interest, supply chain disruptions to a war in Europe the risks are significantly higher than the past recessions of breaking the support line. Some of these factors can be countered by investing in companies that may counter the market for a more balanced portfolio. In short, the first priority would be to set aside enough cash (factoring for long term inflation) for the next 10-20 years outside of investment assets so that even if there is a major downturn or further inflation, you can live comfortably and stress free.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by alexandreisobe
NASDAQ: normalization outlook, zoomed outHi, In my previous post about NASDAQ I shared my points why I removed my share holdings in October 2021, and what targets I'm looking at before taking US tech positions again (not sooner than H2 2022). Here's a zoomed out view, with some important long-term averages and a trend line I'm looking at. I'm not sure about Target 3, but that level is also possible to reach. My best bet would be that it will reach to target 2. The previous explanation. Be safe out there. Cheers, Antonio
NASDAQ:IXIC
by antonio-schmidt
3
NASDAQ - LongThe index has most probably completed either the whole or the first phase of a correction. A daily close above 12275/570 is needed to give more credit for a recovery towards 13020 and 13640.Only a daily close above 15115 would eliminate additional losses for now and open the door to new highs. On the other hand, a daily close below 11015 would revive a downward extension to 10125 and 9580. We recommend building small long positions at market with a stop loss at 11020.
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by Ratio_Trading
1
NASDAQ INDEX TREND AND WAVE ANALYSISBe sure to stick to Stop Lost and TAkE Profit. This is an idea and not a bargain offer This is just idea, not trading advice, use at own risk. reasons: It is recommended to buy in this price limit It is mandatory to pay attention to the stop loss and the target marked on the chart Do not be greedy and adhere to the specified principles. I hope you will be profitable Note that there is no 100% analysis and it is possible to stop flirting This is a personal analysis and you should not enter into a transaction without review If you know this, make a purchase Be sure to adhere to the principles of capital management and do not invest more than 2% of your capital in each transaction. High-risk individuals can enter a maximum of 5% of risk capital in this transaction by accepting risk-taking. This analysis has been analyzed with the classic Elliott topics and neo wave style. Also, the principles of price action have been used.
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by Sina-TFX
1
2000 vs 2022Some similarities between 2000 vs 2022 1. Before reaching ATH the index did a very sharp decline of 33% 2. It took the index 17 bars to reach an ATH vs 20 now 3. Found support on 40SMA after 9 months from ATH vs 7 now 4. Mass retail participation 5. .com mania vs crypto mania? (did luna just popped the bubble?) 6. Interest rates were falling back in 2000 vs rising now (tradingeconomics.com) 7. Inflation was not even close back then to what is is now (tradingeconomics.com) What to wait for 1. Holding or not 40SMA!!! 2. Where RSI, MACD & DMI will head towards next months 3. The index went -18.35% lower than the previous big decline which equals Nasdaq declining just above where the previous wave ended 4. It took the index 23 months by the time it touched for the first time the 40SMA to bottom which means April 2024 just 6 months before the elections When the bubble burst in 2000 nobody really blamed the "system" like in 09 simply because everybody participated in it. It's like blaming yourself! How many people have the courage to do that? Could the same be told about the current situation? Yes, governments printed trillion of money but they did not put a gun in your head telling you, it's either you invest in crypto/stock market or you are done. We participated because our friends and family did, we participated because we were greedy, we participated because we believed in a fairytale and we participated because we wanted an"exit" from the system but all we did was feed the system! I cannot really find any really strong arguments to support that the same will not happen again in the not-so-distant future. I am only thinking that if it is that obvious maybe the markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent! I stand by the Tradinview's motto LOOK FIRST/THEN LEAP
TVC:IXIC
by Philoslother
1
Nasdaq Elliot Wave. Long against LogicI usually trade off just price action, but I find this Elliot Wave on the Daily Timeframe, too close to textbook not to be curious whether it's really a thing. The proportions of the Waves are pretty spot on with the typical standards. Despite being bearish for awhile, and in the medium term like 6-12 months out, I think we get a nice run up for awhile. There seems to be a lot of scared cash on the sidelines, if you look up the Data like the Managers Funds index etc. Could be a nice little FOMO in. We shall see, if it rips, how eager people will be to sell the Rips,...or if the sentiment changes and it's "let it ride." Humans have such bad short term memories, we can go bearish to bullish in the same given day, I know I do sometimes :)
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by jbuick9
working out some kinksthe large gap at 11,187 finally filled with a bounce! good sign that the destruction in the nasdaq stocks could be nearing a turning point. real company earnings are doing quite well and most stocks have been absolutely crushed. the nasdaq 100 has held up more likely bc megacap tech has taken a beating last which likely to continue some more. good news for stocks that have been overly punished -40% or more with great fundamentals, bottoming is a process as they say!
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by saltysaver