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Nasdaq Completes Super Cycle Wave 5 -with Fib Confluences GaloreIf you zoom out on the Nasdaq using a 13D chart, you'll see a clear 5 wave sequence having recently completed. This argument is bolstered by both wave 3 and wave 5 which are 1.618 extensions of wave 1. Wave 3 and Wave 5 are both identical in length. Using this Wave count you'll also see a myriad of confluent fib levels, extensions, etc; but I'm trying to spare you a convoluted chart. To me this says we are at a super cycle top and have completed Grand Super Cycle wave 1. At the Nasdaq's recent all time high, we cleared the 2.618 of wave 1 by less than 2%. If you even remotely respect the Elliott Wave guidelines,, you know what this means. There really isn't a downside limit (well, the all time lows around 50 in 1974) and this likely means we are entering a years or decades long Wave 2 correction.
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by DataMaestro
2
Nasdaq Completes Super Cycle Wave 5 -with Fib Confluences GaloreIf you zoom out on the Nasdaq using a 13D chart, you'll see a clear 5 wave sequence having recently completed. This argument is bolstered by both wave 3 and wave 5 which are 1.618 extensions of wave 1. Wave 3 and Wave 5 are both identical in length. Using this Wave count you'll also see a myriad of confluent fib levels, extensions, etc; but I'm trying to spare you a convoluted chart. To me this says we are at a super cycle top and have completed Grand Super Cycle wave 1. At the Nasdaq's recent all time high, we cleared the 2.618 of wave 1 by less than 2%. If you even remotely respect the Elliott Wave guidelines,, you know what this means. There really isn't a downside limit (well, the all time lows around 50 in 1974) and this likely means we are entering a years or decades long Wave 2 correction.
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by DataMaestro
Daily Market Update for 7/22Summary: Rising jobless claims surprised the market this morning, sending cyclical sectors lower and causing a reversal in small caps after several days of gains. Investors rotated back into growth stocks and big tech, which are more resilient to the swings in the economy. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 22, 2021 Facts: +0.36%, Volume lower, Closing range: 87%, Body: 42% Good: High closing range with higher high and higher low Bad: Low volume, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick, a medium size green body in upper half Advanced/Decline: 0.32, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.20%), DJI (+0.07%), RUT (-1.55%), VIX (-1.23%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.74%) and Health (XLV +0.74%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.09%) and Energy (XLE -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Rising jobless claims surprised the market this morning, sending cyclical sectors lower and causing a reversal in small caps after several days of gains. Investors rotated back into growth stocks and big tech, which are more resilient to the swings in the economy. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.36% on lower volume than the previous day. The day ended with an 87% closing range for the index. A 45% body sits in the upper half of the candle, above a long lower wick formed in the morning as investors absorbed the economic news. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -1.55%, losing most of the gains from the previous day. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.20%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained only +0.07%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.23%. Technology (XLK +0.74%) led the sector list, helped along by big tech. Health (XLV +0.74%) had a nearly equivalent gain to also land at the top. Financials (XLF -1.09%) and Energy (XLE -1.12%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Both Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected. The numbers are still higher than pre-pandemic levels, so an unexpected uptrend is alarming to analysts. Existing Home Sales data came in lower than expected. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.06% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined slightly today. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced today. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +0,35%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +0.90%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.714. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Fear (instead of Extreme Fear), heading toward Neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps all gained for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) led the group with a +1.68% advance and a new all-time high, thanks to a price target upgrade from Citi. Amazon (AMZN) climbed by +1.47%. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.96%. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.68%. All four are trading above key moving average lines. Danaher Corporation (DHR), Salesforce.com (CRM), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Adobe (ADBE) were the top mega-cap gainers for the day. Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were at the bottom of the list. Despite the focus on growth stocks today, the daily update list is about half gainers and half losers. The top of the list includes CloudFlare (NET), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Snowflake (SNOW), and Etsy (ETSY). At the bottom of the list are Chinese stocks FUTU Holding (FUTU), Ehang Holding (EH), and UP Fintech (TIGR), all with losses greater than 7%. SNAP (SNAP) is up over 16% in after-hours trading after an earnings beat and doubling revenue from a year earlier. Twitter (TWTR) was up nearly 5%, showing better than expected growth in its earnings release. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Manufacturing and Services purchasing manager indexes released on Friday will be another indicator of economic activity and the speed of the recovery. Friday's earning reports include Honeywell (HON), American Express (AXP), and Schlumberger (SLB). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq is making a slow but steady climb back to all-time highs. The five-day trend line points to a +0.29% gain for Friday. The one-day trend line ends with a +0.14% gain. The trend line from the 7/13 high points to a -1.39% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The unexpected economic data that arrived this morning took some steam out of the broader rally while rotating investment back into big tech and a focused list of growth stocks. Give the lower volume and the low advance/decline ratio, the gains today were rather weak. Therefore, the expectation for tomorrow will be sideways or lower. One might also expect investors to be nervous heading into the weekend, considering the unknowns around the pandemic and economic recovery. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/21Summary: Stocks continued to rebound from last week's dip, with small caps leading the march upward, keeping the advance/decline ratio above 2.0 for a second day. Investors are looking more optimistic about the economic recovery among solid earnings reports from market leaders. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 21, 2021 Facts: +0.92%, Volume lower, Closing range: 99%, Body: 92% Good: Close at high of day, bullish green body, A/D ratio Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No upper wick, very tiny lower wick, mostly green body Advanced/Decline: 2.36, almost five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.82%), DJI (+0.83%), RUT (+1.81%), VIX (-9.23%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.49%) and Financials (XLF +1.72%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) and Utilities (XLU -1.10%). were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks continued to rebound from last week's dip, with small caps leading the march upward, keeping the advance/decline ratio above 2.0 for a second day. Investors are looking more optimistic about the economic recovery among solid earnings reports from market leaders. The Nasdaq closed the day a +0.92%. Volume was lower, but buyers dominated the entire, with almost five advancing stocks for every declining stock. The candle has no upper wick because of the 99% closing range, and the green body covers 92% of the candle. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led for a second day, as the US Dollar remains in an uptrend and makes undervalued small caps more attractive. The RUT closed with a +1.81% gain today. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.82%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +0.83%. The VIX volatility index declined -9.23%. Energy (XLE +3.49) jumped to the top of the sector list as investors became more optimistic about the recovery. Financials (XLF) was the second-best sector, thanks to rising Treasury yields. At the bottom of the sector list are Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) and Utilities (XLU -1.10%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Crude Oil Inventories came in higher than expected, but that did not dampen investors' outlook for oil. The 20y Treasury auction was weak, helping Treasury Yields to rise. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.20% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose today. The 20y auction was weak, helping long-term yields to increase further. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices continue to bounce back from Monday's dip. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced, and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced sharply. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Crypto is back in vogue after another mention from Elon Musk. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +7.70%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +10.82%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.619. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Fear (instead of Extreme Fear), heading toward Neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) declined -0.51% after topping the mega-cap list yesterday. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.06%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +0.74%. Amazon (AMZN) rose +0.34%. All four closed above their 21d exponential moving average line. ASML Holding (ASML), Nvidia (NVDA), Exxon Mobile (XOM), and JP Morgan (JPM) were the top mega-caps for the day. Netflix (NFLX) was the worst-performing mega-cap today after subscriber growth stalled and the company missed earnings estimates. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple were also at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Growth stocks had another great day. At the top of the daily update list were UP Fintech (TIGR), DraftKings (DKNG), Lemonade (LMND), and NIO (NIO). The only losers in the list were Zynga (ZNGA), Tesla (TSLA), and Zoom Video (ZM). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims become available on Thursday before the market opens. After the market opens, Investors will get Existing Home Sales data for June. Intel (INTC), Abbott Labs (ABT), AT&T (T), Snap (SNAP), ABB (ABB), Twitter (TWTR), DR Horton (DHI), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Dominos Pizza (DPZ), and American Airlines (AAL) release earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved back toward all-time highs as seems to be putting a quick correction behind. The one-day trend line points to a +0.39% gain for Thursday. The five-day trend line ends in a -1.02% decline, which would be just above the 21d EMA. The trend line from the 7/13 high points to a -1.92% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up While fears grow about the impact of the Delta variant around the world, there is still high optimism for the US economic recovery, supported by upbeat earnings reports in the past two weeks. The combination of fear in other economies and optimism in the US economy put the US Dollar in an uptrend relative to other world currencies. As investment flows into the US Dollar, global investors need a place to put that money to use. Since Treasury yields remain low, we see investors seek out returns in equities and high-yield corporate bonds. In addition to these favorable conditions, small-cap valuations are low compared to larger-cap stocks. That's helping the Russell 2000 lead the other major indexes in gains the past two days. The expectation is for sideways or higher tomorrow. Keep an eye on the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/20Summary: Small caps ended several days of losing to lead stocks higher today as investors snapped out of the pandemic fears that caused Monday's selling. Investors are warming back up to small caps as the US Dollar strengthens and yields in bonds are beginning to stabilize. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 20, 2021 Facts: +1.57%, Volume higher, Closing range: 80%, Body: 59% Good: Broad gains on higher volume to move back above 21d EMA Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Bullish green body with higher low and higher high, medium size upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 2.69, more than five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.52%), DJI (+1.62%), RUT (+2.99%), VIX (-12.32%) Sectors: Industrials (XLI +2.80%) and Financials (XLF +2.48%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.43%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Small caps ended several days of losing to lead stocks higher today as investors snapped out of the pandemic fears that caused Monday's selling. Investors are warming back up to small caps as the US Dollar strengthens and yields in bonds are beginning to stabilize. The Nasdaq finished with a +1.57% gain on higher volume than the previous day. The 59% green body and 80% closing range represent a day of constant buying that ended with some profit-taking in the last few minutes before the market close. The index closed yesterday's gap down and regained the 21d exponential moving average, closing at the 14,500 support area. There were more than five advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) soared back into action with a +2.99% gain today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also gained a significant +1.62%, helped by industrials and recovery stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a +1.52% gain for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -12.32%. In a reversal from yesterday, all sectors gained for the day. Industrials (XLI +2.80%) and Financials (XLF +2.48%) led the sector list. Utilities (XLU +0.43%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Building Permits data released this morning was lower than expected, but Housing Starts was higher than expected. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.15% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Treasury Yield dropped. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices bounced back from a sharp decline yesterday. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices recovered some from the sharp decline on Monday. The drop on Monday was a result of OPEC's decision to increase output. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -3.99%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.21%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.592. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in Extreme Fear but moving back toward Neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All big four mega-caps bounced back from yesterday's losses. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.60%, closing the gap from yesterday. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.31%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +0.83%. Amazon (AMZN) rose -+0.66% to close back above its 21d exponential moving average. Apple was the top-performing mega-cap for the day, followed by Mastercard (MA), Pfizer (PFE), and Tesla (TSLA). There were only a handful of mega-caps losing for the day, with Novo Nordisk (NVO), Nvidia (NVDA), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Verizon (VZ) at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks in the daily update list did very well today. Top performers included Upwork (UPWK), Peloton (PTON), Square (SQ), and SNAP (SNAP). The worst performers were Zoom (ZM), Pinterest (PINS), JD.com (JD), and Nvidia. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories are the primary economic data for Wednesday, although some may be interested in Mortgage data released before the market opens. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), ASML Holding (ASML), Coca-Cola (KO), Verizon (VZ), and Fidelity Financial (FNF) are some of the interesting reports for Wednesday. Analysts will listen closely to Coca-Cola statements around supply chain costs and whether they are transferring increased costs along to consumers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved back above the 21d EMA and closed right at the 14,500 support area. If momentum carries through to tomorrow, the one-day trend line points to a +1.98% gain. The five-day trend line and trend line from the 7/13 high points to a ~1.90% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fears melted away today as investors pivoted back into growth stocks and small caps. The Russell 2000 rebounded sharply with investors moving out of bonds and betting on the lower valuations of small caps compared to the mega-caps. We had a positive expectation breaker today, which is always welcome. The expectation for tomorrow is sideways or higher for tomorrow, although watch for any indication that today was just a technical bounce before moving lower. If we do move higher, the Russell 2000 is likely to outperform for the next leg up. Let's see. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 7/19Summary: The new Delta variant of the Coronavirus was top of mind for investors as the trading week began. Share prices of COVID vaccine-related companies soared today as it appeared governments would need to double down on vaccination efforts. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, July 19, 2021 Facts: -1.06%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: 29% Good: Support around 14,200, good closing range Bad: Lower on higher volume, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body in center of candle, even upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.27, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.59%), DJI (-2.09%), RUT (-1.51%), VIX (+21.96%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Health (XLV -1.05%) at the top. Financials (XLF -2.80%) and Energy (XLE -3.53%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The new Delta variant of the Coronavirus was top of mind for investors as the trading week began. Share prices of COVID vaccine-related companies soared today as it appeared governments would need to double down on vaccination efforts. The Nasdaq finished with a -1.06% loss for the day on higher volume. The index found support at the 14,200 level, closing with a 71% closing range above a 29% body that is right in the middle of the candle. The lower high and lower low continues a downtrend as more than three stocks declined for every stock that advanced today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) took the biggest hit with a -2.09% loss. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.59%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.51% as it continues to slide well below recent highs. The VIX volatility index rose +21.96%. It was up over 35% intra-day. All sectors lost for the day. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Health (XLV -1.05%) led the sector list. Financials (XLF -2.80%) and Energy (XLE -3.53%) were the worst-performing. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators President Biden gave a speech today that included remarks on inflation and the strength of the economy. The market receded from earlier gains after his speech. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.13% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields dropped again. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined sharply, while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The gap between High Yield bonds and Treasury bonds widened significantly. Silver (SILVER) declined, and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined sharply. Timber (Wood) continued a steep decline. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.98%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -3.90%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.898, showing investors getting more bearish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into extreme fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All big four mega-caps had huge declines today. Apple (AAPL) gapped down and closed with a -2.69% loss. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -1.33%. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.88%, closing right at its 21d exponential moving average. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.67% and closed below its 21d exponential moving average. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list with a +3.41% gain after Morningstar improved its outlook for the company. Abbot Laboratories (ABT), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Netflix (NFLX) were the next three on the list. Most of the mega-caps declined for the day. The biggest losers were Mastercard (MA), Walt Disney (DIS), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and JP Morgan (JPM). The majority of the daily update growth stocks had gains today. Peloton (PTON) topped the list with a 7.14% gain, leading other stay-at-home stocks upward as fears of the Delta variant grow. Peloton also announced it would get into the video game business, turning its exercise equipment in the controller. Chewy (CHWY), Fiverr (FVRR), and DoorDash (DASH) also had significant gains today. Interestingly, stay-at-home stock Zoom Video (ZM) did not rise today, ending up at the bottom of the list with a -2.15% decline. Also at the bottom were JD.com (JD), Square (SQ), and Alibaba (BABA). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be available on Tuesday morning before the market opens. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock gets released after the market closes. Netflix (NFLX), Philip Morris (PM), Chipotle (CMG), KeyCorp (KEY), Haliburton (HAL), and United Airlines (UAL) will report earnings on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq found support at 14,200 today. The five-day trend line and trend line from the 7/13 high points to a -1.02% to -1.17% decline for Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a -0.32% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors are spooked over the rise in the new Delta variant of the Coronavirus. Expect more volatility until the pros can better understand how dangerous the new variant is and how they can control it. Based on the downtrend and daily decline on higher volume, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Nasdaq Setting up for Rounded top Been posting bearish charts for awhile and scaling out of the market. Very hard to fully bet against the Fed but it's to risky to not be hedged right now. Bounced off support today but I think we will visit the bottom of the rising channel - could revisit the February 2020 highs. Market is setup for a perfect top: -Debt ceiling + Delta variant concerns -Parabolic for the past year -Covid got new traders to enter the market (provide liquidity for Wallstreet to sell) -Insiders selling -Advance decline (markets being held up by big companies while majority bleed) -High price to earnings valuations. Top it off, there is a rounding top pattern in the works. I am no expect in distribution, but I am concerned at the number of people who started investing in the past year with no knowledge.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by richardthick
Market Week in Review - 7/12/2021 - 7/16/2021Summary: Worries over the health and speed of the recovering economy remained this week, and the big mega-caps weren't enough to keep the indexes moving higher. Investors weren't sure what to do with a mixed bag of economic data, causing volatility in bonds and equities. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, July 12, 2021 Facts: +0.21%, Volume higher, Closing range: 69%, Body: 12% Good: Higher high, higher low, body and closing range in upper half of candle Bad: Red body, low advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of the candle, long lower wick from morning dip Advanced/Decline: 0.8, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.35%), DJI (+0.36%), RUT (+0.08%), VIX (-0.06%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.98%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.87%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.15%) and Consumer Staples (XPL -0.16%) were the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher New all-time highs across three of the major indexes is not a bad way to start the week. The 10-year Treasury note auction passed without many surprises, giving the indexes a boost in the afternoon. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.21% advance on slightly higher volume. The candle shows a bit of indecision as markets dipped in the morning but then recovered and made gains in the afternoon after the auction. The 12% Red body in the upper half of the candle is above a long lower wick. The closing range is 69%. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 13, 2021 Facts: -0.38%, Volume higher, Closing range: 12%, Body: 26% Good: Higher high, outside day that keeps index in uptrend, support at ~14,675 Bad: Long upper wick from afternoon selling, red body at bottom of candle Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, long upper wick signals a bearish reversal day Advanced/Decline: 0.21, five decline stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.35%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (-1.88%), VIX (+5.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.41%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.03%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.20%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.30%) were the bottom. Expectation: Lower Higher than expected inflation data wasn't enough to keep the indexes from making new highs, but the rally couldn't last, and markets closed lower on Tuesday. A weaker than expected 30y bond auction sent yields higher and spooked investors in the afternoon. Big tech held onto gains, helping the Technology sector end the day in the positive. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.38% loss on higher volume. The candle has a long upper wick that represents the morning rally which turned into an afternoon sell-off. The 26% red body sits at the bottom of the candle, creating a 12% closing range above a short lower wick. The outside day with a bearish reversal confirms the underlying weakness where five stocks declined for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 14, 2021 Facts: -0.22%, Volume lower, Closing range: 8%, Body: 86% Good: Nothing Bad: Thick red body, closing range, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body surrounded by tiny wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.28, more than three decline stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.12%), DJI (+0.13%), RUT (-1.63%), VIX (-4.62%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.89%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.88%) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.98%) were the bottom. Expectation: Lower Apple gets an upgrade, and big tech rises again as the rest of the market fades around it. Producer Price Index data was higher than expected. Still, Jerome Powell continued to focus on inflation being transitory and the need for further economic support until the jobs market fully recovers. Despite the advances in big tech, the Nasdaq closed -0.22% lower. Showing the lopsided gains in the market, the QQQ ETF (weighted by cap size) was up +0.18%, while the QQQE ETF (equal-weighted) was down -0.12%. The Nasdaq candle is almost all red body (86%), with tiny upper and lower wicks. The closing range is 8%. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 15, 2021 Facts: -0.70%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 47% Good: Bounce off support at 21d EMA Bad: Another LH/LL on slightly higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.5, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.33%), DJI (+0.15%), RUT (-0.55%), VIX (+4.17%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.41%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.82%) and Energy (XLE -1.40%) were bottom Expectation: Sideways or Lower Is the big tech trade finished? Or is this just a pause before another leg up? Economic data in the morning caused volatility at the market open, which eventually went to the bears. The selling continued until the afternoon when the buyers came back into the market. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.70% loss on slightly higher volume. The candle has a thick red body in the upper half and a long lower wick in the lower half. The closing range is 46%, and the body covers 47% of the candle. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 16, 2021 Facts: -0.80%, Volume lower, Closing range: 7%, Body: 81% Good: Nothing Bad: Close below 21d EMA, mostly red body, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Almost entirely red body, upper wick longer than lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.32, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.75%), DJI (-0.86%), RUT (-1.24%), VIX (+8.47%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Health (XLV +0.27%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.51%) and Energy (XLE -2.83%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower The market gave us a painful Friday to end a painful week. Utilities were again the top sector as investors took defensive positions brought on by worries over the pandemic and a slowing economic recovery. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.8% loss. Volume was lower, but the candle was distinctly bearish with a large 81% red body and a dismal 7% closing range. The upper wick, created by an early morning rally, is slightly longer than the lower wick. The index got some support at 14,500 but quickly reversed, moving below the 21-day exponential moving average. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week Worries over the health and speed of the recovering economy remained this week, and the big mega-caps weren't enough to keep the indexes moving higher. Investors weren't sure what to do with a mixed bag of economic data, causing volatility in bonds and equities. All seemed ok after an uneventful 10-year Treasury note auction on Monday. That was the only news of the day. After the auction, the Nasdaq rallied into close and continued the rally into the following day. That's when the trouble started. Tuesday kicked off with higher than expected Consumer Price Index data. Equities continued to rally, but the inflation worries hit the 30-year bond auction. The low demand for the bond sent yields higher. Only big tech companies held onto gains by the end of the day. The big tech rally got another boost on Wednesday when JP Morgan analysts upgraded the price target for Apple after news that the company is boosting iPhone production by as much as 20%. The rally extended to other tech mega-caps and set up a situation where a pullback for the big tech stocks was due. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Banks in New York and Philadelphia released their Manufacturing Data. The New York numbers were at all-time highs while the Philadelphia numbers were lower than expected. Although the Philadelphia numbers were below expectations, they are still high on a historical basis. The numbers supported the narrative that the economic recovery is slowing, sending Treasury Yields back down to where they started the week. And yet, the US Dollar strengthened. The economic worries, volatility in bonds, and extended prices in big tech all combined to sink the indexes lower on Friday, closing a painful week for growth investors. The Nasdaq declined -1.87% for the week. Volume was higher than the previous week. Despite the decline, the index did manage a higher high and a higher low for the week. The closing range of 4% is the lowest in over a year, representing the selling into the close that occurred on Friday. Small Caps suffered the most this week, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropping -5.12%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.97% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.52%. The VIX volatility advanced +14.04% for the week. The sectors ended the week in a very character than they started the week. None of the leading sectors early in the week were leading by the end of the week. Financials ( XLF ) started the week in first as investors anticipated earnings reports from big banks that began on Tuesday. By Friday, the sector slipped to the middle of the list, ending the week with a -1.61% decline. Technology ( XLK ) and Communication Services ( XLC ) took over the top spots for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. They also reversed downward and ended the week with losses. The only sectors to end the week with gains were Utilities ( XLU ), Consumer Staples ( XLP ), and Real Estate ( XLRE ). The defensive sectors gained ground at the end of the week as worries over the economy grew among investors. Energy ( XLE ) was at the bottom of the list, dropping -7.89% this week. OPEC+ continues to have disagreements, destabilizing the sector along with the price of oil. Add the fears of a slowing recovery, and investors are exiting positions in the sector that performed well in the first half of 2021. Treasury yields on the 30y bond and 10y note slid further this week. Although the 10y note auction passed without surprises, the 30y bond auction was weaker than expected, causing yields to rise midweek. However, the levels returned to where they started the week, and the slide continues. The 2y yields rose slightly for the week as the yield curve continues to flatten. The signal to read here is that investors see more risk in shorter-term debt, requiring more reward (yield). The outlook for the short term is growing more negative. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined but remained near pre-pandemic highs. Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.66% for the week. Silver (SILVER) declined -1.70%, and Gold (GOLD) advanced +0.16%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined -3.20%. Timber (WOOD) advanced -4.30%. Copper (COPPER1!) declined +-0.12%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -0.61%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps Three of the four largest mega-caps advanced for the week. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest gain with a +1.16% advance. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.01%. Apple (AAPL) rose +0.88%. All three pulled back from intra-week highs on Thursday and Friday. Amazon (AMZN) dropped -3.92% for the week. All four are trading above key moving averages. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. The situation was not good for the four recovery stocks. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) took the biggest hit with a -13.77% decline, dropping below the 40w moving average. Delta Airlines (DAL) declined -6.66%, despite beating all analyst expectations on the top line, bottom line, and key metrics. Marriott (MAR) fell -5.21%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) dropped -6.39%, pulling the Energy sector lower. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). The declines continue in the four cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) lose another -7.44%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) dropped -10.98%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) declined -10.70%. Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) fell -11.76%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.859. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved into the Extreme Fear level. The indicator is at 23, which is the lowest since the 2020 pandemic crash. The NAAIM Money Manager exposure index rose to 93.27 this week. The survey occurs on Wednesdays, so the number does not include any selling on Thursday and Friday. However, it's still interesting that the index rose after the previous week where the market was already weakening. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead The week will start slow, but earnings reports will pick up as Financials kick off the earnings season. Monday There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. IBM will release earnings on Monday, which may be an early indicator of what's to come from other tech giants this earnings season. Tuesday Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be available on Tuesday morning before the market opens. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock gets released after the market closes. Netflix (NFLX), Philip Morris (PM), Chipotle (CMG), KeyCorp (KEY), Haliburton (HAL), and United Airlines (UAL) will report earnings on Tuesday. Wednesday Crude Oil Inventories are the primary economic data for Wednesday, although some may be interested in Mortgage data released before the market opens. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), ASML Holding (ASML), Coca-Cola (KO), Verizon (VZ), and Fidelity Financial (FNF) are some of the interesting reports for Wednesday. Analysts will listen closely to Coca-Cola statements around supply chain costs and whether they are transferring increased costs along to consumers. Thursday The weekly Initial Jobless Claims become available on Thursday before the market opens. After the market opens, Investors will get Existing Home Sales data for June. Intel (INTC), Abbott Labs (ABT), AT&T (T), Snap (SNAP), ABB (ABB), Twitter (TWTR), DR Horton (DHI), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Dominos Pizza (DPZ), and American Airlines (AAL) release earnings on Thursday. Friday The Manufacturing and Services purchasing manager indexes released on Friday will be another indicator of economic activity and the speed of the recovery. Friday's earning reports include Honeywell (HON), American Express (AXP), and Schlumberger (SLB). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side There may be a slowdown in the speed of growth compared to the first half of the year, but the economy is still expanding at a historically high rate. The US Dollar is strengthening. Investors continue to support high prices (low yields) in both investment grade and junk corporate bonds, showing confidence in US businesses to be successful in the near term. That confidence is coming from the ability for businesses to secure low interest rates for debt to fund growth, while consumers are continuing to drive demand via increased activity (Retail Sales is higher than expected). Inflation remains high, but consumers are still purchasing, using a record amount of savings to fund new purchases. The Fed's Jerome Powell reaffirmed again this week that they believe inflation is transitory, but they are more than willing to step in to control inflation. Although an interest rate hike would cause some pause, the bigger evil for growth stocks is out-of-control inflation. The slightly more hawkish Fed can help growth investors remain confident in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side At all-time highs, the market was due for a pullback. Despite gains among big tech, the last two weeks have shown a broader weakness in equities. Much of that is from fears of a slowing economic recovery, driving volatility in the bond market, and spilling over into equities. Although Retail sales were higher than expected, Consumer sentiment and expectations data were low. Analysts expected the consumer numbers to be higher since we are emerging from the long pandemic. However, it seems consumers are worried about new variants and also stressed by higher prices for goods. The question is, will there be a further correction, or is the minor pullback this week enough to get support and move higher. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into the Extreme Fear range, based primarily on the weakness in stock prices and high demand for long-term bonds. That means big investors see a worsening situation on the horizon and possibly a move lower for the indexes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq set another all-time high this week before pulling back again and closing below the 21d exponential moving average. The index closed with a higher low but with a dismal closing range, sliding into the end of the week. On the positive side, the levels are: The 21d EMA is at 14449.77. 14,500 has been a support area in the past, get back above this area to move higher. The 10d MA is at 14,625.59. The high of this past week was a new all-time high at 14,803.68. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,989 by the end of the week. The round number 15,000 is likely to be a new area of resistance. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The low of this past week is 14,413.32. The low of the previous week is 14,371.59. Keep making higher lows to keep the uptrend intact. The 50d MA is at 14,004.19. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. There is a pivot at 13,548.93. There is a support area at 13,000. 13,002.54 is a pivot from May. 13,119.60 is the 200d MA. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a tough week, especially for growth investors. Economic signals are all over the place, causing reactions among investors. Ultimately, volatility will have investors exiting riskier positions and moving to safe-havens. We saw that through the increased demand for long-term bonds and the rise of defensive sectors to the top of the sector list the past two weeks. As it stands, the Nasdaq is still in an uptrend. It looks worrisome, but we have to wait and see what happens in the coming week. A further decline could mean a 5-6% correction before the uptrend resumes. Or the index could turn back toward new all-time highs sooner if new data indicate a more robust economic recovery. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Daily Market Update for 7/16Summary: The market gave us a painful Friday to end a painful week. Utilities were again the top sector as investors took defensive positions brought on by worries over the pandemic and a slowing economic recovery. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 16, 2021 Facts: -0.80%, Volume lower, Closing range: 7%, Body: 81% Good: Nothing Bad: Close below 21d EMA, mostly red body, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Almost entirely red body, upper wick longer than lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.32, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.75%), DJI (-0.86%), RUT (-1.24%), VIX (+8.47%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Health (XLV +0.27%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.51%) and Energy (XLE -2.83%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market gave us a painful Friday to end a painful week. Utilities were again the top sector as investors took defensive positions brought on by worries over the pandemic and a slowing economic recovery. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.8% loss. Volume was lower, but the candle was distinctly bearish with a large 81% red body and a dismal 7% closing range. The upper wick, created by an early morning rally, is slightly longer than the lower wick. The index got some support at 14,500 but quickly reversed, moving below the 21-day exponential moving average. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was again the worst major index for the day, declining -1.24%. Investors have been exiting small-cap stocks and rotating back into big tech and growth stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.86%. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -0.75%. The defensive sectors were at the top of the sector list for another day and topped the weekly list. Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Health (XLV +0.27%) were the best performing sectors. Materials (XLB -1.51%) and Energy (XLE -2.83%) were the worst-performing. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Retail Sales data came in higher than expected. However, Consumer Expectations and Sentiment surprised analysts with lower numbers than expected. Analysts expected higher sentiment because the US is emerging from the pandemic and getting back to a somewhat normal life. The lower number adds some worry that the recovery is slowing among concerns over inflation and new virus variants. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.16% for the day. The US 30y Treasury Yield rose slightly, while the 10y and 2y Yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined sharply. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) also declined sharply. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.45%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.05%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.859, showing investors getting more bearish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into extreme fear. The extreme fear indicator is driven by demand for bonds (lower yields), higher put/call ratio, and weakening stock prices. Interestingly, the Junk Bond component still shows Greed. The NAAIM Money Manager exposure index rose to 93.27 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All big four mega-caps declined again today. Amazon (AMZN) declined the most this week, adding a -1.59% drop this week and closing just above its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) fell -1.41%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) had smaller losses, declining -0.10% and -0.03%, respectively. The top mega-caps for today are Oracle (ORCL), Danaher (DHR), Novo Nordisk (NVO), and Thermo Fischer (TMO). Danaher and Novo Nordisk are new to the list, topping the $200 billion market cap with gains this week as the Health sector picks up momentum. At the bottom of the list are Nvidia (NVDA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Walt Disney (DIS), and ASML Holding (ASML). The daily update growth stock list continued a tough week with more losers than gainers. Sumo Digital (SUMO), DocuSign (DOCU), Fastly (FSLY), and Zoom (ZM) were at the top of the list. The -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. IBM will release earnings on Monday, which may be an early indicator of what's to come from other tech giants this earnings season. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed below the 21d exponential moving average line today. I removed the trend line from the 5/12 low and added a new trend line from the 7/13 high. The five-day trend line points to a -0.07% decline for Monday. The trend-line from the 7/13 high ends with a -0.58% loss. The one-day trend line points to a -0.76% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Gains over the past week have been focused mainly on big tech, while the rest of the market showed weakness. Investors are worried that the economic recovery is slowing, and that will hurt smaller companies the most. Big tech could only carry the indexes to a certain point and was due for a pullback. We'll have to wait for next week to see if there is a further correction or if the outlook will improve and support comes back into equities. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 7/15Summary: Is the big tech trade finished? Or is this just a pause before another leg up? Economic data in the morning caused volatility at the market open, which eventually went to the bears. The selling continued until the afternoon when the buyers came back into the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 15, 2021 Facts: -0.70%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 47% Good: Bounce off support at 21d EMA Bad: Another LH/LL on slightly higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.5, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.33%), DJI (+0.15%), RUT (-0.55%), VIX (+4.17%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.41%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.82%) and Energy (XLE -1.40%) were bottom Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Is the big tech trade finished? Or is this just a pause before another leg up? Economic data in the morning caused volatility at the market open, which eventually went to the bears. The selling continued until the afternoon when the buyers came back into the market. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.70% loss on slightly higher volume. The candle has a thick red body in the upper half and a long lower wick in the lower half. The closing range is 46%, and the body covers 47% of the candle. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.15%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.33%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped another -0.55%. The defensive sectors were at the top of the sector list again today. Utilities (XLU +1.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.41%) were the best performing sectors, signaling the unease over continued inflation and uncertainty in the economic recovery. Technology (XLK -0.82%) had its first decline after five days of gains. Energy (XLE -1.40%) continues to slide. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Continuing Jobless Claims continues to fall while Initial Jobless Claims was even, meeting expectations. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index blew away expectations at 43 (analysts expected 18). However, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 21.9, well below expectations. Regardless, the Philly index is still at a historically high level. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.21% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields fell significantly again while the 2y Treasury yield remained even. Bond investors listened closely to the Fed Jerome Powell's comments in front of the Senate this week. Powell is walking a line between calming fears over inflation and letting people know the Fed is willing to step in and control inflation if it proves not as transitory as expected. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) bond prices declined. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -3.21%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -3.57%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.764. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved more into the fear side, getting closer to extreme fear. The NAAIM Money Manager exposure index rose to 93.27. Buying the dip? -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All big four mega-caps declined today but remain well above key moving average lines. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest loss, declining -1.37%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.96%. Microsoft (MSFT) fell -0.52%. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.45%. Danaher Corporation (DHR) barely rose above 200B market capitalization to make it into the mega-cap list. The stock tops the list today with a +1.75% gain. Alibaba (BABA), United Health (UNH), and Home Depot (HD) were the other top mega-caps for the day. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is at the bottom of the list with a -5.51% decline. The company released earnings before the market open. They increased profits from the previous year but were still slightly below analyst expectations. Also at the bottom of the mega-cap list is Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), and Eli Lilly (LLY). It has not been a good week for growth stocks. Most of the stocks in the daily update list declined for another day. Chinese stocks did well, with FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR), JD.com (JD), and Alibaba (BABA) topping the growth list. At the bottom of the list are Fiverr (FVRR), SNAP (SNAP), Enphase (ENPH), and Nvidia (NVDA). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The focus will be on Retail Sales data on Friday morning. Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations data will be available after the market opens. Consumer Inflation Expectations will also watch closely as higher expectations tend to play out to be self-fulfilling. Friday's earning reports include Honeywell (HON) and Charles Schwab (SCHW). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Support around 14,650 did not hold. However, the index did get support at the 21d exponential moving average line. Buyers came back into the market at soon as the index hit the line. The trend line from the 5/12 low shows a +2.11% gain for Friday. If the index moves lower from here, I'll retire this long trend-line and replace it with a line from the 7/14 top. There is nothing to complain about a two-month uptrend. The five-day trend line leads to a 0.22% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -1.16% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There were likely several things at play in today's decline: 1. Big tech companies were due for a pullback. As the primary source of gains over the past week, the pullback of big tech impacted the major indexes. 2. The Philly manufacturing index number coming in lower than expected was a shocker for investors, despite being historically high. 3. Whether yields go up or down, volatility in the bond market is never good for equities. There's a great quote from Steve Eisman in The Big Short (book): "The equity world is like a f***ing zit compared to the bond market." Truth. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 7/14Summary: Apple gets an upgrade, and big tech rises again as the rest of the market fades around it. Producer Price Index data was higher than expected. Still, Jerome Powell continued to focus on inflation being transitory and the need for further economic support until the jobs market fully recovers. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 14, 2021 Facts: -0.22%, Volume lower, Closing range: 8%, Body: 86% Good: Nothing Bad: Thick red body, closing range, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body surrounded by tiny wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.28, more than three decline stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.12%), DJI (+0.13%), RUT (-1.63%), VIX (-4.62%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.89%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.88%) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.98%) were the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Apple gets an upgrade, and big tech rises again as the rest of the market fades around it. Producer Price Index data was higher than expected. Still, Jerome Powell continued to focus on inflation being transitory and the need for further economic support until the jobs market fully recovers. Despite the advances in big tech, the Nasdaq closed -0.22% lower. Showing the lopsided gains in the market, the QQQ ETF (weighted by cap size) was up +0.18%, while the QQQE ETF (equal-weighted) was down -0.12%. The Nasdaq candle is almost all red body (86%), with tiny upper and lower wicks. The closing range is 8%. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.13%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.12%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to slide with a -1.63% loss today. The defensive sectors were at the top of the sector list today. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.89%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.88%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.87%) was third. With the help of the big mega-caps, Technology (XLK +0.74%) also ended the day with gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.44% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields declined for the day. Yields were already falling in the morning, but further declines came after Powell's testimony. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +0.86%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.55%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.630. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) hit the headlines with a +2.41% advance after JP Morgan upgraded the price target for the stock. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.70%. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.54%. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +0.12%. Apple was the top mega-cap. Coca-Cola (KO) was a surprise second, perhaps getting some positive impact from Pepsi's stellar earnings report the previous day. MasterCard (M) and Visa (V) were third and fourth in the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the list were Nvidia (NVDA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Tesla (TSLA), and Bank of America (BAC). Other than the excitement with big tech, it was another dismal day for growth stocks in the daily update list. Twitter (TWTR), Alibaba (BABA), ServiceNow (NOW), and D.R. Horton (DHI) were the only gainers in the list (it is not an exhaustive list of growth stocks). Upwork (UPWK) fell -17.38%. Since May, the stock nearly doubled, and it seems investors were taking profits as the broader market pulled back. GrowGeneration (GRWG) also dropped, declining -11.10%. Solar Edge (SEDG) and UP Fintech (TIGR) round out the bottom four in the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Two sets of data will be in focus on Thursday. First, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims will show how the labor market is progressing. Second, the Manufacturing and Industrial Production data in the morning will be closely watched as investors continue to measure the speed of the economic recovery. Jerome Powell will continue testimony in front of Congress in the morning. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will release earnings on Thursday. The earnings release and commentary should show how stretched the semiconductor giant is to meet demand. The impact may be among auto manufacturers who've had to put plants on hold, waiting for chips from suppliers. Other large producers of electronics will also be impacted. In addition, UnitedHealth (UNH), Morgan Stanley (MS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Progressive (PGR), and Cintas (CTAS) will be interesting reports to watch out for on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance I marked a support area for the Nasdaq around 14,675 yesterday. The index dropped below that today, but there is still a case for support in the range of 14,645 - 14,675. If a further decline comes tomorrow, I'll remove that support area as it isn't holding. The trend line from the 5/12 low shows a +1.36% gain for Thursday. The five-day trend line leads to a +1.11% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -0.68% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up You are not alone. If you feel like your portfolio is moving lower while the indexes march higher, you've got many friends. Mega-caps are stealing the show right now and sending the major indexes higher while the market continues to weaken underneath them. The expectation will remain for a move Lower tomorrow. Some good economic news could be enough to start the rally again, but a rally will only have strength with higher volume and an advance/decline ratio above 1.0. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
IXIC: Giving us another TA class! Many patterns around!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the Nasdaq is doing today! It didn’t trigger any pullback sign since our last analysis, and as we thought, it is just trending. I see nothing around telling me it’ll drop again, but we have some possible patterns that could cause a pullback here. First, notice the purple trendline . We talked about this line last week, when the price was still under it, and once defeated, the market did a pullback and found a support at it. This is another classic example of the Principle of Polarity in Technical Analysis: Previous resistances/supports will work as supports/resistances in the future. This happens because the market has a memory, therefore, we have key points we can use. What’s more, we have a possible H&S chart pattern , and if we trigger the neckline, by losing the 14,660, then we might see a correction ahead. The daily chart suggests we could drop to the 21 ema, and that would be fine, the trend would still be bullish in the mid-term. If we fail again in closing above the 14,755 then I believe it’ll be an exhaustion sign for real. The chart looks quite stretched and this makes traders and investors nervous about buying at a possible top level. What’s the solution? Pick amazing stocks that are already near their support levels. I can’t even count how many incredible opportunities are out there, we just need to know where to look. Meanwhile, watch the points mentioned in this analysis carefully! If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my free daily studies, and support this idea if it helped you! Thank you very much!
TVC:IXIC
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
Daily Market Update for 7/13Summary: Higher than expected inflation data wasn't enough to keep the indexes from making new highs, but the rally couldn't last, and markets closed lower on Tuesday. A weaker than expected 30y bond auction sent yields higher and spooked investors in the afternoon. Big tech held onto gains, helping the Technology sector end the day in the positive. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 13, 2021 Facts: -0.38%, Volume higher, Closing range: 12%, Body: 26% Good: Higher high, outside day that keeps index in uptrend, support at ~14,675 Bad: Long upper wick from afternoon selling, red body at bottom of candle Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, long upper wick signals a bearish reversal day Advanced/Decline: 0.21, five decline stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.35%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (-1.88%), VIX (+5.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.41%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.03%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.20%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.30%) were the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Higher than expected inflation data wasn't enough to keep the indexes from making new highs, but the rally couldn't last, and markets closed lower on Tuesday. A weaker than expected 30y bond auction sent yields higher and spooked investors in the afternoon. Big tech held onto gains, helping the Technology sector end the day in the positive. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.38% loss on higher volume. The candle has a long upper wick that represents the morning rally which turned into an afternoon sell-off. The 26% red body sits at the bottom of the candle, creating a 12% closing range above a short lower wick. The outside day with a bearish reversal confirms the underlying weakness where five stocks declined for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.31% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.35%. Small caps were hit the worst, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropping -1.88%. The VIX volatility index rose +5.88%. Technology (XLK +0.41%) was the only sector to end the day with gains. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.03%) was the second-best sector in the list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.20%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.30%) were the worst-performing. Despite great earnings reports, the outlook for big banks was not spectacular, sending the Financial sector (XLF -1.08%) lower. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.60% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced for the day, and the gap between long-term and short-term yields widened. The 30y auction that occurred today was weaker than expected. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined significantly from recent highs. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.51%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.94%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.598. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined today, losing -1.11%. The others ended the day with gains and record closes but could not hold onto intraday highs. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +1.32%. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.79%. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.29%. PepsiCo (PEP) topped the mega-cap list after pleasing investors with a great earnings report and raised forecast. Mastercard (MA), Alibaba (BABA), and Visa (V) make up the rest of the top four mega-caps for today. Tesla (TSLA) gave back much of yesterday's gains, ending today at the bottom of the list. Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM) were also at the bottom of the list despite JP Morgan releasing a great earnings report. Watch to see how the market responds to JPM over the next few days to signal how earnings season will go for this quarter. It was not a great day for growth stocks, but there were some winners in the daily update list. Upwork (UPWK) gained over 5% and topped the list. JD.Com (JD), Alibaba (BABA) were number two and three as Chinese stocks began to climb back from the sell-off last week. Okta (OKTA) was the fourth-best growth stock on the list. The biggest losers were Etsy (ETSY), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Sumo Digital (SUMO), and Lemonade (LMND). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The producer price index data released on Wednesday will compliment Tuesday's consumer numbers. The produce prices show a leading indicator of inflation before it passes along to consumers. Jerome Powell is going before congress again to talk monetary policy. Play the suspense music here. Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C ), BlackRock (BLK) are among the big finance companies reporting earnings before the market opens. Delta Airlines (DAL) will also be a critical earnings release to watch and measure how airlines are recovering as the economy reopened further this past quarter. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new all-time high for a second day but could not hold the level, closing lower for the day. It seems there is support around 14,675, which we'll look to hold in tomorrow's session. The trend line from the 5/12 low shows a +0.94% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line leads to a +0.71% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -0.53% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a surprise to see the indexes rally after inflation data was higher than expected. The weak 30y bond auction was enough to reverse the positive sentiment and send indexes lower. Tomorrow's producer price index data will add to the story, providing a heads up for more or less inflation coming down the road. Positive earnings reports for big banks didn't seem to matter today, but we'll see how investors respond to the sector over the next few days. The initial reaction may reverse, and we could see the sector go higher. That would be a positive sign for the next wave of earnings reports in the following weeks. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 7/12Summary: New all-time highs across three of the major indexes is not a bad way to start the week. The 10-year Treasury note auction passed without many surprises, giving the indexes a boost in the afternoon. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, July 12, 2021 Facts: +0.21%, Volume higher, Closing range: 69%, Body: 12% Good: Higher high, higher low, body and closing range in upper half of candle Bad: Red body, low advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of the candle, long lower wick from morning dip Advanced/Decline: 0.8, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.35%), DJI (+0.36%), RUT (+0.08%), VIX (-0.06%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.98%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.87%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.15%) and Consumer Staples (XPL -0.16%) were the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview New all-time highs across three of the major indexes is not a bad way to start the week. The 10-year Treasury note auction passed without many surprises, giving the indexes a boost in the afternoon. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.21% advance on slightly higher volume. The candle shows a bit of indecision as markets dipped in the morning but then recovered and made gains in the afternoon after the auction. The 12% Red body in the upper half of the candle is above a long lower wick. The closing range is 69%. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) performed the best for the day with a +0.36% advance. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.35%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) opened the day with a loss but climbed back to end with a +0.08% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -0.06%. Financials (XLF +0.98%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.87%) were at the top of the sector list. Financials is kicking off a big earnings week that will be watched closely by investors. Expect investors to focus on guidance as much or more than they do the results. There were only two declining sectors, Energy (XLE -0.15%) and Consumer Staples (XPL -0.16%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.13% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields advanced for the day following the 10y note auction. The 2y Treasury yield also all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined.h Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -3.37%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.87%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.637. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced for today, gaining +1.16%. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.42%. Microsoft (MSFT) fell -0.22%. Amazon (AMZN) declined just -0.02%. All four are trading above moving average lines. Tesla (TSLA) and Walt Disney (DIS) were the top mega-caps for the day, both gaining more than 4%. ASML Holding (ASML) and Nvidia (NVDA) round out the top four. At the bottom of the list are Cisco Systems (CSCO), Salesforce.com (CRM), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), and Oracle (ORCL). Tesla and Nvidia also top the daily update growth list. Joining them in the top four are Peloton (PTON) and NIO (NIO). At the bottom of the list are Fiverr (FVRR), UP Fintech (TIGR), Fastly (FSLY), and Pinterest (PINS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, investors will get a fresh look at the consumer price index data. It's likely to continue showing higher inflation in general. Compare the total CPI number to the Core CPI, which excludes Fuel and Food. Investors will also look closely at what subcomponents drive inflation and how transitory prices will be in those areas. Weekly API Crude Oil numbers will be available in the afternoon after the market closes. JP Morgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) will kick-off earnings season with pre-market earnings reports. PepsiCo (PEP) will also release earnings in the morning. Another potentially interesting report to watch is Fastenal (FAST) wholesale distributor. Look for signs of more stress or relief in the supply chain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new all-time high but could not hold the level, closing slightly lower. The trend line from the 5/12 low shows a +0.34% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.06% gain. The five-day trend line leads to a -0.19% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Today's 10y note auction went by without any big surprises. We seem to be past the volatility in Treasure Yields that happened last week. Now all eyes turn toward the first earnings reports from big banks tomorrow morning. Investors will also react to any surprises with the Consumer Price Index data released before the market opens. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Market Week in Review - 7/6/2021 - 7/9/2021Summary: This week's uncertainty around how fast the economy is recovering drove volatility in cyclical sectors while sending Treasury yields on a slide that exasperated investors' worries. Still, the major indexes narrowly secured gains for the week while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) set new records. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 6, 2021 Facts: +0.17%, Volume higher, Closing range: 85%, Body: 1% Good: High closing range, long lower wick shows recovery from dip Bad: Volatile outside day with doji star candle, bearish pattern Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Doji star candle with longer lower wick, outside day Advanced/Decline: 0.3, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.20%), DJI (-0.60%), RUT (-1.36%), VIX (+9.08%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.89%) and Utilities (XLU +0.42%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.75%) and Energy (XLE -3.25%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower It was a roller-coaster day for the market as prices dipped in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. Investors reacted to the Purchasing Managers index data that indicates the economic recovery may be slowing. Although the Nasdaq could finish the day with a small gain, most stocks across the index declined for the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.17% gain, beginning the day with a gap at open but quickly selling off in the morning. Eventually, the bulls came in and brought the index back just above where it opened. The volume was higher than the previous day, and the mid-day reversal ended with a high 85% closing range. The close, being just above the open, created a slim 1% body. The outside day, doji star candle signals a bearish reversal pattern. Despite the gain in the index, there were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 7, 2021 Facts: +0.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 28%, Body: 51% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Couldn't hold morning high, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large red body with no upper wick, lower wick created from a morning dip Advanced/Decline: 0.33, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.34%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-0.95%), VIX (-1.46%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.04%) and Industrials (XLI +1.00%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.15%) and Energy (XLE -1.63%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Investors rotated back to cyclical stocks after they underperformed yesterday. Mega-caps also did well on a day with no huge surprises in economic news. Jobs data was a bit lower than expected, but not bad, and there were no unexpected statements in the Fed minutes. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.01% gain, carried mainly by mega-caps. There continues to be a much higher number of declining stocks than advancing stocks, with a ratio of 3 to 1 today. The closing range of 28% follows a morning gap-up that quickly sold off to create a long lower wick. The index recovered some of the loss, leaving a 51% red body over the long lower wick. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 8, 2021 Facts: -0.72%, Volume lower, Closing range: 79%, Body: 63% Good: Closed above 14,500 support area, lower volume on down day Bad: Gap down at open, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Large green body in the middle of two short wicks, the upper wick is slightly longer Advanced/Decline: 0.37, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.86%), DJI (-0.75%), RUT (-0.94%), VIX (+17.27%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -0.09%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -1.29%) and Financials (XLF -2.00%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Is it a pullback from a new high and or the start of a more significant correction? You won't find any easy answers in the data. A few weeks ago, investors were worried about an overheating economic recovery, and now they seem worried about a slowing recovery. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.72% decline on lower volume. The gap-down at open looked severe and dropped the index below the 14,500 support area, but a mid-day rally brought it back above the support line. The rally created a 63% green body. Prices faded in the late afternoon to create an upper wick and finish the day with a 79% closing range. The lower high and lower low combination is the first in several weeks of gains. The advance/decline line remains low, with almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 9, 2021 Facts: +0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 98% Good: Close above the weekly open, high closing range, A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body, slightly longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 2.51, five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.13%), DJI (+1.30%), RUT (+2.17%), VIX (-14.94%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.89%) and Energy (XLE +2.13%) at the top. Health (XLV +0.34%) and Utilities (XLU +0.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher Friday brought a confident end to a short but volatile week. After the bond yield slide caused a sell-off the previous day, yields recovered, and investors moved back into equities. In contrast to Thursday, all sectors closed with gains on Friday. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.98% advance, with gains broadly shared across the index. There were five advancing stocks for every declining stock. The only thing missing was the volume which was much lower than the previous day. Nonetheless, the high closing range of 95% and the green body that spans 78% of the candle are bullish. It also helps close the week with a positive weekly gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week This week's uncertainty around how fast the economy is recovering drove volatility in cyclical sectors while sending Treasury yields on a slide that exasperated investors' worries. Still, the major indexes narrowly secured gains for the week while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) set new records. The week opened with investors taking defensive positions in Real Estate and Utilities, showing nervousness over new developments in the pandemic. Among recent surges in the number of cases identified as the Delta variant, Pfizer added worries that the vaccinated population might require a six-month booster shot to remain safe. In a demonstration of just how confused investors are about economic data, cyclical sectors sold off on Tuesday, were repurchased on Wednesday, sold off again on Thursday, and bought back on Friday. Despite gains on the first two days, the number of declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks 3 to 1 most of the week. The increases in the indexes for the first three days were driven primarily by mega-caps. The most significant sign of change in investors thinking was in the sliding yields for Treasury notes. Yields have been dropping since economic data started to show the recovery is progressing slower than previously expected. Never mind that the economy is still expanding at a historically high rate and inflation continues to be a concern. Analysts needed to recalculate and rebalance for the new speed. The slide in yields came to a critical moment on Thursday when investors who were betting that yields would rise needed to cover those positions. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices. Investors were expecting yields to go up, and prices to go down and took short positions in those bonds. When the opposite happened, they needed to buy back the bonds to cover the short position. The result was even higher prices and lower yields. Once bond investors covered those positions, we saw a recovery of yields on Friday and a boost in equities as investors came back into the market. The story is not over yet. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks on Friday, but volume in the market was meager. The Nasdaq advanced +0.43% this week. Volume was slightly higher than the previous week but lower than average for this year. The low is lower than the last week, and the high is higher, marking an outside week for the index. The closing range of 86% is healthy. The long lower wick represents the dip on Thursday that was bought on Friday. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week at another record, advancing +0.40% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also had a record close with a +0.24% gain for the week. The picture was not quite as rosy for small caps, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining most of the week. The index gained on Friday, but not enough to end the week positively, falling -1.12% for the week. The VIX volatility advanced +7.23% for the week. It climbed almost 42% intra-week. The short week was defined mainly by Thursday's sell-off in equities as Treasury bond yields were sliding. That gave a boost to two defensive sectors, Real Estate ( XLRE ) and Utilities ( XLU ), but the two sectors were already leading from Monday. The worries ended on Friday, but the two sectors remained in the lead for the week. Technology ( XLK ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) were the next two sectors at the top of the list, showing a mix of risk-on and risk-off sentiment throughout the week. The cyclical sectors moved from the top of the sector list on Wednesday to the bottom of the list on Thursday, back to the top of the list on Friday. Energy ( XLE ) was a consistent loser throughout the week until finally finding itself at the top of the list on Friday. However, the gains were not enough to move it out of the bottom position for the week. Treasury yields on the 30y, 10y, and 2y all declined for the week. The gap between long-term yields and short-term yields continues to close while the yield curve shape is normalizing. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined slightly but remained near pre-pandemic highs. Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.15% for the week. Silver (SILVER) declined -1.36%, and Gold (GOLD) advanced +1.15%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined -0.77% after clearing its 2018 high last week and setting a new high on Monday. Timber (WOOD) advanced +2.44%. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +1.33%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -2.48%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) signaled indecision among investors with their weekly candles. Despite the uncertainty, Microsoft and Alphabet gained +0.10% and +0.21%, respectively. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) showed very bullish weeks. Amazon gained +5.93%, continuing momentum after the government ended an exclusive contract with Microsoft and opened up opportunities for other cloud vendors. Apple gained +3.68% for the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Given the worries over the economic recovery and new fears for the pandemic, it's no surprise to see the continued losses in the recovery stocks. Only Marriott (MAR) ended the week with gains, advancing +0.86%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) declined -3.07%. Delta Airlines (DAL) lost -2.79%. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) had the most significant decline, falling -6.91%. All four closed the week above their 40-week moving average. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). All four cryptocurrencies declined for the week as they consolidate in sideways trends. Volume is shrinking while bases develop. At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.60%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) fell -7.55%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) dropped -7.28%. Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) declined -5.20%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved higher, ending the week at 0.735. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved further into the fear side mid-week but is on its way back toward neutral. The NAAIM Exposure Index shows money managers at 82.54 average exposure among active money managers. The survey occurs on Wednesdays, so the number does not include any of the selling on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead The week will start slow, but earnings reports will pick up as Financials kick off the earnings season. Monday The USDA will release the monthly agriculture supply and demand estimate report on Monday. Investors will also watch the 10y and 3y note auction closely in the afternoon. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. Tuesday On Tuesday, investors will get a fresh look at the consumer price index data. It's likely to continue showing higher inflation in general. Compare the total CPI number to the Core CPI, which excludes Fuel and Food. Investors will also look closely at what subcomponents drive inflation and how transitory prices will be in those areas. Weekly API Crude Oil numbers will be available in the afternoon after the market closes. JP Morgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) will kick-off earnings season with pre-market earnings reports. PepsiCo (PEP) will also release earnings in the morning. Another potentially interesting report to watch is Fastenal (FAST) wholesale distributor. Look for signs of more stress or relief in the supply chain. Wednesday The producer price index data released on Wednesday will compliment Tuesday's consumer numbers. The produce prices show a leading indicator of inflation before it passes along to consumers. Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C ), BlackRock (BLK) are among the big finance companies reporting earnings before the market opens. Delta Airlines (DAL) will also be a critical earnings release to watch and measure how airlines are recovering as the economy reopened further this past quarter. Thursday Two sets of data will be in focus on Thursday. First, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims will show how the labor market is progressing. Second, the Manufacturing and Industrial Production data in the morning will be closely watched as investors continue to measure the speed of the economic recovery. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will release earnings on Thursday. The earnings release and commentary should show how stretched the semiconductor giant is to meet demand. The impact may be among auto manufacturers who've had to put plants on hold, waiting for chips from suppliers. Other large producers of electronics will also be impacted. In addition, UnitedHealth (UNH), Morgan Stanley (MS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Progressive (PGR), and Cintas (CTAS) will be interesting reports to watch out for on Thursday. Friday The focus will be on Retail Sales data on Friday morning. Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations data will be available after the market opens. Friday's earning reports include Honeywell (HON) and Charles Schwab (SCHW). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Sliding Treasury Yields tested investor confidence this past week. The markets largely passed the test as yields recovered and the indexes moved higher. There are some key things we can look to for a bullish outlook. First, the lowering treasury yields drive borrowing costs lower for companies. The result is that investors are further buying up both Investment Grade Corporate Bonds and High Yield "Junk" Bonds. Although yields on those bonds also drop as prices go up, the yields are higher than government bonds, and the purchases reflect confidence in US businesses to pay back debts. If inflation is really going to stick, funding growth via cheap debt now could be a smart move by companies. Use the purchasing power now before further inflation hits, and then as inflation continues, the debt obligation becomes cheaper over time. There are plenty of examples in history of wise business owners funding massive growth by acquiring debt in the face of inflation. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side The indexes are extended as they continue to set new record closes. As uncertainty remains around how quickly the economy is expanding, investors will continue to rotate between sectors and cap segments. The volatility will send a portion of smart money to safer bets elsewhere. The pullback isn't necessarily a bad thing but will undoubtedly be painful for some. As supply chain pressure remains among higher demand from consumers, inflation will remain a concern. This week's CPI and PPI data may be a crushing blow to investor confidence. Higher than expected numbers will drive more volatility in both bond and equity markets. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq set another all-time high this week before pulling back on economic worries on Thursday. Still, the index remained above the 21d moving average and continues to track along with a regression trend mid-line from the 5/12 low. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was a new all-time high at 14,755.33. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,914 by the end of the week. The round number 15,000 is likely to be a new area of resistance. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 10d MA is at 14,564.53. 14,500 is a support area developed from three days of sideways trading this week. The low of this past week is 14,371.59. The 21d EMA is at 14,363.62. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The 50d MA is at 13,926.79. There is a pivot at 13,548.93. This is a "higher low" in the current uptrend. There is a support area at 13,000. 13,002.54 is a pivot from May. 13,026.58 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The mixed sentiment among investors on the economic recovery is interesting. Yes, the economic recovery is slowing, yet it's still expanding at a higher than standard rate. The Fed's monetary policy seems to be supporting the growth while still allowing room to taper if the recovery drives unacceptable levels of inflation. That's driving yields lower, bringing borrowing costs down. Small and large companies can borrow at those reduced rates to drive further growth. If inflation continues, the costs to servicing the debt only become cheaper. That to me appears bullish, but maybe I'm a fool. Only history will be the final judge of who is wise and who is a fool. Follow price! Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 7/9Summary: Friday brought a confident end to a short but volatile week. After the bond yield slide caused a sell-off the previous day, yields recovered, and investors moved back into equities. In contrast to Thursday, all sectors closed with gains on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 9, 2021 Facts: +0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 98% Good: Close above the weekly open, high closing range, A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body, slightly longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 2.51, five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.13%), DJI (+1.30%), RUT (+2.17%), VIX (-14.94%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.89%) and Energy (XLE +2.13%) at the top. Health (XLV +0.34%) and Utilities (XLU +0.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Friday brought a confident end to a short but volatile week. After the bond yield slide caused a sell-off the previous day, yields recovered, and investors moved back into equities. In contrast to Thursday, all sectors closed with gains on Friday. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.98% advance, with gains broadly shared across the index. There were five advancing stocks for every declining stock. The only thing missing was the volume which was much lower than the previous day. Nonetheless, the high closing range of 95% and the green body that spans 78% of the candle are bullish. It also helps close the week with a positive weekly gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed the best for the day as investors swung back into small caps. The index gained +2.17% but still closed with a weekly loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) soared back to another set of record closes with +1.30% and +1.13% gains today. The VIX volatility index declined -14.94%. All sectors gained today, and cyclical sectors moved back to the top of the sector list. Financials (XLF +2.89%) and Energy (XLE +2.13%) were at the top of the list, followed by Materials (XLB +1.97%) and Industrials (XLI +1.58%). Health (XLV +0.34%) and Utilities (XLU +0.12%) were at the bottom of the list, as investors did not take defensive positions heading into the weekend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.27% for the day. Bond yields recovered from the previous day's drop. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Both are in an uptrend. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +2.82%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +1.50%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.735. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. The NAAIM Exposure Index shows money managers at 82.54 average exposure among active money managers. The survey occurs on Wednesdays, so the number does not include any of the selling on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) climbed back to all-time highs with a +1.31% advance on Friday. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.38%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +0.19%. Amazon (AMZN) was the only of the largest four mega-caps to decline for the day, losing -0.32% but still very extended above moving average lines. Big banks led the mega-cap list, with Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) gaining more than 3%. Also in the top four were Alibaba (BABA) and ASML Holding (ASML). At the bottom of the list were Eli Lilly (LLY), Comcast (CMCSA), and Amazon (AMZN). The handful of losers in the mega-cap list all lost less than 1%. There were also only a handful of losers in the daily update growth list. The top gainers were Snowflake (SNOW), SNAP (SNAP), Chewy (CHWY), and Upwork (UPWK). At the bottom of the list were Peloton (PTON), Zynga (ZNGA), Etsy (ETSY), and DocuSign (DOCU) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The USDA will release the monthly agriculture supply and demand estimate report on Monday. Investors will also watch the 10y and 3y note auction closely in the afternoon. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday, but that will change by Tuesday as earnings season kicks off next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq was able to close with a weekly gain, recovering from yesterday's losses. It's in a position to make another new all-time high in the next week if trends continue. The one-day trend line points to a +0.85% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 5/12 low shows a +0.30% gain. The five-day trend line leads to a -0.45% loss to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After a "the sky is falling" moment with bond yields on Thursday, everything seemed to be back to normal on Friday. The thesis that bond traders were covering for short positions seemed to be correct. The performance of the treasury note auctions on Monday afternoon will be a better signal of the health of the bond market. Based on the two thick-bodied, green candles on Thursday and Friday, the expectation is for Higher on Monday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321