MAR trade ideas
Will Marriott Attempt a Breakout?Marriott has gone essentially nowhere since the pandemic began almost three years ago. But now the hotel giant could be getting ready to move.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the tight consolidation over the past three weeks. Notice how MAR has stayed above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). It’s a change from August and September, when prices were trapped below the 200-day SMA.
There’s also a falling trendline along the highs of June and September, which the stock is now above.
In both cases, old resistance seems to be morphing into new support.
Second, consider the series of higher lows since June. Have long-term buyers added at incrementally richer prices?
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA since mid-October. This could reflect a favorable short-term trend. (See the lower study with our 2 MA Ratio custom script.)
Finally, on the weekly chart, MAR is in the process of forming a bullish outside candle.
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MAR: interim correction?The stock is testing its 200-day simple moving average.
The MACD that is converging is a concern.
Below 166.10 supports a bearish trend direction.
Consolidation from 160.00 to 164.10.
Crossing below 160.00 might target 155.90.
Crossing above 164.10 will be the first sign of pending strength.
Marriott - Opportunity for 50% Short Trade?Given the poor performance of Marriott business in 2020 and 2021 associated with lockdowns and geopolitical risks that may worsen revenue flows is it time to short this stock?
Let's look at it in more detail.
Fundamental indicators:
Revenue and Profits - not consistent long-term earnings growth over the past 10 years, 2020 and 2021 have seen dramatic drop in revenue
Profit margin - average 7-9%, but there was profit loss in 2021
P/E - extremely high with 36x ratio
Liabilities - historically high debt to equity ratio which may hurt with increasing interest rates
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Following the sharp correction of March 2020 shares of Marriott have enjoyed considerable growth. However, this bull run is difficult to associate with an impulse like structure
Hence it is more likely to be wave X of a Running Correction
Since the peak in April 2022 we can observe an initial impulse developing to the downside which is likely to be wave A of a zigzag, or first wave of an impulse
Looking at the lower timeframe we can still expect waves 4 and 5 to complete this impulse before an upward correction
Given the next earning report is scheduled for August 2022 and the risks associated with business in Russia it may be possible that this report will be the trigger for sell off
What do you think about Marriott and its short term prospects?
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
Hotel Stocks Could Be Breaking OutDespite last week’s sharp drop in the market, one group tried to break out: Hotel stocks like Marriott.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the high-volume rally and breakout April 13-20. The move followed comments by airlines like Delta Air Lines , American Airlines and United Airlines about strong post-pandemic demand for travel .
Second, notice how prices bounced a the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in December and March. The stock then found buyers at the 100-day SMA in mid-April. Holding faster moving averages suggests that the trend is starting to accelerate.
Third, MAR remained near its highs and was mostly immune to the volatility in other corners of the market earlier this year. (See the relative strength in yellow.)
Traders may now watch the price zone between roughly $168 and $173 because it was a consolidation area in late March. The 50-day SMA could also become potential support.
Finally, it’s noteworthy that related companies like Hilton , Wyndham Hotels & Resorts and Host Hotels have similar patterns. That suggests investors are starting to build positions across the industry before the summer vacation season gets underway.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risks. Please click here for TradeStation Crypto’s risk disclosures on investing and trading in cryptocurrencies.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
Breakout in PivotDefensive Plan
Planning staggered stop if breakout does work right away
50% sell breakout day low
75% sell 20 D MA
100% sell 50 D MA
Aggressive Plan
The plan could change to be more aggressive if the setup improves after an orderly pullback or tightening to new highs
IBD RATINGS FOR MAR
ChecklistRating
Composite Rating98Pass
EPS Rating79Fail
RS Rating91Pass
Group RS RatingB+Pass
SMR RatingAPass
Acc/Dis RatingB-Pass
EPS % Chg (Last Qtr)983%
3 Year EPS Growth Rate0%
EPS Est % Chg (Current Yr)71%
Annual ROE114%
Earnings watch 2/15 pre-marketEarnings watch 2/15 pre-market:
MAR
QSR
HUN
ZTS
ARCH
TRTN
PTN
ECL
FIS
SABR
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
www.tradingview.com
$MAR rejecting important levels for new ATH?ANALYSIS:
$MAR last trading session showed great rejection candle off last year high and previous month low.
After pulling back to Pivot Based EMAs, price closed just above slow PEMA.
The rejection is supported by low volume node from the composite volume profile over the last six months.
In addition, the rejection area remains highly important for $MAR since major tests occurred in Feb '18, Dec '19 and Mar '20 (ref. weekly TF)
EXECUTION:
Scaling into the position by executing an entry with 50% trade allocation at/near the last session's mid point (153.18), if price opens above it on Monday 22.11.
Add to the position by executing an entry at/ near the absorption zone (mid point of rejection day) on Day 2.
Finish scaling to defend your position should a failed new low of days 1 and 2 develop on Days 3 and/or 4.
In price closes below 153.18, exit the position.
TARGETS:
The new low of the month suggests a possible retest of month highs at 162.31 with further extensions up to 165.50.
MAR showing signs it's ready to go higher!* Great earnings
* Strong up trend
* Very high RS in the Consumer Services sector
* Earnings steadily increasing quarter over quarter
* Breaking out of a ~8 month consolidation with higher than average volume
* Recently broke a long term resistance of $152.78 that dates back to 2019 and retested it as support for ~5 weeks
Trade Idea:
* Now is the perfect time to get in as the price is really close to the broken level and it's also picking up on volume.
* If the earnings are good, this has a great chance of a break away gap.
Marriott International Bull Flag ContinuationMAR broke out of a descending channel around Sep 10, and started a bull run toward resistance at 145.98 where it rejected and began to flag. It broke out of the flag on Sep 22 and proceeded to smash through resistance at 145.98 and 150.65. Price appears to be moving at the same angle as the initial move and it looks as though it may retest the ATH by Tuesday 9/28. With the strong base built beneath the initial ATH test, we could see an extended run to new highs following a break above 160.00. Happy trading!