MGPI MGP IngredientsUnder legal issues for securities disclosure issues (or shareholders wanting to re-coop losses)
Not sure if inventory disclosure issues really impact a businesses profitability or is considered enough to reward shareholders for losses, as that doesn't really impact profitability or value as carrying costs is already included in opex, but I'm not a fundamental analysis person
Technically has several reasons this level may offer some medium term support
I personally like higher potential profits but this one has a big cushion in terms of cash on hand (Quick ratio) has 30% insider ownership, has changed the management quickly upon the issue being raised, and is a relatively stable business from a profitability standpoint
Not crazy cheap but has been driven down by bad news only and reaching technical levels of support with patterns emerging with oversold indicators and 18 year highs offering a zone of support meaning the path of least resistance is likely higher as all of the sellers have likely already sold
Not looking to hold this one forever but may do a 1 year trade on it and try to capture the easy 50%
MGPI trade ideas
Breakout in MGPIMGPI is setting up in a potentially powerful breakout pattern. MGP Ingredients is a distilled spirits company. Alcohol stocks are often seen as defensive which would make sense why we are seeing money flow into these names right now. But the group as a whole saw a huge advance in 2020 during COVID lockdowns, so do not underestimate their power to perform. The sector as a whole is coming out of a Stage 1 consolidation base and is now trying to mount a breakout higher in Stage 2.
MGPI is my favorite stock in the alcohol group, both in terms of fundamentals and technical setup.
As you can see in the MarketSmith table I put on the bottom of the chart, sales and earnings have been skyrocketing at this company for the last four quarters. And gross margins are actually improving at the same time.
The technical pattern is what William O'Neil referred to as a "base-on-base" pattern. You will notice a first base that formed from December-March. Once the stock broke out, it consolidated once again to form a second base that is now completing with very tight price action in a 4% range over the last two weeks.
Base-on-base patterns are most common toward the end of a bear market when stocks break out but do not make their full advance because they are being held back by the general market. But once the bear ends (which it always does) these stocks can make powerful moves higher once their power is released.
I plan to buy on a breakout above 103.25. And thanks to the tight pivot area, I can place a tight stop at 99.05 to risk just 4% on the trade.
NASDAQ:MGPI
$MGPI pulling back to breakout supportPicked up few shares today on the pullback to 5 month rectangle pattern support (broken resistance becomes support). Will the stock bounce from here? I have no idea, but what setups like this take place, you take them and then let the market does what it wants to do :).
Adding to my Long Position in MGPI on MondayMGPI is printing a bullish candlestick over candlestick price bar on above average volume with my momentum/trending oscillators confirming the price move. I am adding to my long position in MGPI on Monday using a limit (GTC-BUY-LMT) order @ 75.06. I will have two trailing sell stops (GTC-SELL-STP) @ 71.74 and 68.99 to protect my initial invested capital in case MGPI does not move higher immediately. I am expecting a measured move similar to all or part of the previous uptrend from January 2017- November 2017.