Confusing Head&Shoulders pattern for MOMO and 50% gain potentialIn current context it is very hard to make prediction and especially in Chinese stocks. MOMO has recently completed H&S pattern which is usually regarded as bearish chart pattern. Stock is very volatile last 3 weeks and it drops to its strong support at around 22-23. Situation with COVID-19 fuels uncertainty and fear into global markets sentiment and can push MOMO even lower at this setup. MOMO has very good and stable growth and people in China like using dating and video services provided by company. I would even think current context may increase usage of those services. COVID-19 seems to be currently more-less stabilised in China, not in the rest of the world however.
Most important day for MOMO is 19.march 2020 when Q4 and full year earnings will be announced. EPS Q4 forecast is 0.64$ which is roughly 40% higher in comparison to Q4 2019 EPS. I believe in strong results which may be able to yield 50% gain in price from 22$ to 33$ in few months.
MOMO trade ideas
Mo Momo, yoInterested in buying under $33 and taking partial profit at $57, or long term options.
Amid China's current nCov 2019 epidemic, it seems that the internet/social media based companies are handling things well.
There is a lot of open interest for puts 30-35 on options a few months out. Considering their top holder with 14 million shares is Black Rock and MOMO is backed by Alibaba, I am near certain the puts are merely hedges for their positions should MOMO not be able to reclaim price above $40.
Here is a copy paste from Yahoo Finance:
"Momo Inc. operates a mobile-based social and entertainment platform in the People's Republic of China. The company operates Momo platform that includes its Momo mobile application and various related features, functionalities, tools, and services to users, customers, and platform partners. It offers Momo mobile application that enables users to establish and expand their social relationships based on locations; interests; and recreational activities, including live talent shows, short videos, social games, and other video- and audio-based interactive experiences. The company also operates Tantan, a social and dating app to help its users to find and establish romantic connections, as well as to meet interesting people primarily for young mobile Internet users. The company was formerly known as Momo Technology Company Limited and changed its name to Momo Inc. in July 2014. Momo Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China."
Social media is the future.
And this has to be one of my most favorite bullish trading patterns:
MOMO 11/15 Calls are primed with China/US Deal on the table.MOMO has both volatility and volume to make a decent move tomorrow and maybe the remainder of the week with next level of strong resistance at the 38.50 level. Nov. 15 calls with 38.50 strikes are trading at 700-1500% normal levels and the premiums are still relatively cheap. This makes for a decent day or swing trade as long as the China & US deal continues on the current track. Of course, like anything related to China as of late, all it takes is a whiff of bad news to send this trade spiraling into the neverland.
I predict that as long as China & US continue with positive news tomorrow and the remainder of this week, we will see good returns on the 11/15 expiry calls. Watch your risk and don't be afraid to bail out if the price suddenly dives. It won't recover!
MOMO: NOT JUST A DATING APP?
Background
MOMO is a mobile based social networking platform that has able to grow its user base by its platform by providing an alternative location based socializing application that allow people who are near each other to establish social relationships. Over the past few years, it has been able to catch the live broadcasting and video streaming mega trend in China. It has been able to capitalize this line of business through a virtual based gift system where the fans are able to purchase virtual gifts for live streamers they like. It also operates another not-yet-profitable dating app called Tantan, which is the Chinese equivalent of Tinder. Collectively, these apps came under heavy regulatory scrutiny from the government due to the occurrence of prostitution and fraud at the end of April. As a result, Tantan is currently removed from the Chinese App store and several functions of the Momo’s main app is disabled.
Note: problems like this has been surfacing since last year so Momo is expected to undergo a major change to prevent mitigate such issues
Rationale:
1. Momo’s stock price has been relative resilient considering: 1) US-China trade war and weakness in Chinese stocks 2) Regulatory pressures from China. Recent price actions may indicate that the removal of the Tantan app is only temporary
2. Solid results from Momo and the company is significantly undervalued especially when compared to Match Group Inc.
Catalyst:
If developers from Momo can resolve issues raised by the regulatory body, resulting in Tantan re-debuting on the Chinese app store and the Momo app restoring its full functionality, we may expect prices move testing and hopefully moving above may levels indicated on the chart.
Price Target:
Short-term price target range is indicated on the chart. The range contains important resistance levels including the 0.618 fib retracement from previous high, and the downward gap around the 29th of April due to Tantan’s removal. It will be interesting to see whether prices will move past this level. I would consider holding my long position in Momo if it is able to break through this level and consolidate. In that case, more upside potential would appear.
Expected Payout: 3.397%