Falling Wedge in Microsoft Technology stocks have retreated this month as the AI frenzy cools. Microsoft, in particular, has pulled back.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the narrowing range since the slide began in late July. MSFT has made lower highs, but lower lows at a shallower pace. That could have produced a descending triangle, which is potentially bullish.
Second, consider the rally between April 25, when results beat estimates, and July 18, when the company announced pricing for its AI services. The current pullback represents about a 50 percent retracement of that move.
Third, the software giant has remained above its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) since January. But now prices are returning to the vicinity of this longer-term trend indicator.
Finally, stochastics have been in oversold territory for more than a week.
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MSFT trade ideas
Microsoft future trends will get betterMicrosoft Announces Official Launch of Virtual Machine Azure ND H100 V5 VM Series to Help Organizations Handle Generative AI Tasks More Efficiently
ONE. The most powerful and highly scalable AI VM series to date
ND H100 v5 VM, Azure's most powerful and highly scalable AI VM series to date
This VM supports on-demand configurations of up to 8 to thousands of NVIDIA H100 GPUs interconnected via Quantum-2 nfiniBand network, enabling significantly higher performance of AI models. Compared to the previous generation of ND A100 v4 VMs, this release includes the following innovations.
8 NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs connected via the next generation NV Switch and NV Link 4.0. In a non-blocking fat tree network, each GPU carries 400GD/s NVDIA Quantum-2 CX7 nfiniBand and 3.2Tb /s performance per VM. The eight ground GPUS in each VM are interconnected via 3.8Tb/s pairs of split bandwidth NV Switch and NV Link 4.0 interconnections with fourth-generation Intel Xeon Scalable processors. PCIE Gen 5 host-to-GPU interconnections are available with 64Gb/s 16-channel 4800 MHZ DDR5 memory per GPU bandwidth.
The new VMs use NVIDIA's NVIDIA Tensor Core H100 GPUs and NVIDIA Quantum-2 nfiniBand networking, Microsoft added, adding that the company is working to add hundreds of thousands of new GPUs to its VMs over the next year
MSFT in Bullish TrendMSFT is making a bullish flag, also there is no divergence. Trade plan mentioned in the Chart
#MSFT Straddle/trade plan Less expensive than previous but still is considerable. Exp date is 15-Sep-23.
We placed both for clarity.
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MSFT approaching supportMicrosoft Corp. (MSFT) approaching channel support, able to absorb weekly selling pressures. From here, (MSFT) can regain upward momentum and trade back to recent resistance, eliciting gains of 15-20% over the following 1-2 months. A settlement above this resistance would lead to a longer-term buy signal into 2024. Inversely, if a settlement below channel support occurs, (MSFT) becomes susceptible to losses of 20% over the following 3-5 months.
Bearish shark harmonic almost completedIf we see a reaction at the completion, look out below.
I dont think tech is going to go much longer without a pullback.
The last few stragglers are fomoing in right now.
MSFT AnalysisPrice playing out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a 7.97% move to the downside. Target for this down move is the bullish OB at 322.72 which will be mitigated soon. From there, we should see a confirmation on the lower timeframe before taking any longs.
MSFT 3 MAJOR spirals due on aug 9 +or - 3 days topThe chart posted is that of msft . I now can project an a turn to watch for most likey the top in msft on or about 8/9 f10 f11 f12 upside target 381/383
MSFTAppears to be rejecting monthly supply/previous highs/key Fib extension from the 99 high to 09 low. I'm short this name for the foreseeable future. Another monthly 50 sma test ($250ish) doesn't seem too crazy if this level holds as resistance imo.
The goal of reducing 180$According to the Butterfly pattern, the Fibo perfectly converges the decline to the target of $ 180. We also go down the channel where the lower border of the channel will be. All 3 parameters should be added together. We should reach it by June 2024, there will be a great point for going to long.
MICROSOFT Potential weekly retracement zone
After taking out Buyside Liquidity, it's possible MICROSOFT will retrace to the noted FVG in discount.
MSFT: Head & Shoulder Pattern formationMSFT: Head & Shoulder Pattern formation hence going short at the neckline.
MSFT setting up for a "mini" correction MSFT appears to be setting up for a bull run even though it is already exceptionally expensive PE. Regardless of fundamentals such as its massive investment in AI/chatCPT and formidable challenges against Google with its Bing platform, etc
Similar to AMD, MSFT is experiencing negative MACD signals which suggest a relative good buying opportunity is coming ahead, from July 15 at the earliest.
Should MSFT go below 288 / fib 0.786 to rest the last high however will turn out to be interesting. Risk vs rewards.
MSFT BuyMSFT at low of the channel. High chances of going from here to run up. If it fail to remain in the channel then low journey is confirmed.
MSFT earnings watchMSFT earnings are today 7/25/23 at 4:05pm. Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings of 2.45 per share on revenue of 52.86 billion for the fiscal Q3 ending March 2023. The consensus earnings estimate was 2.22 per share on revenue of 51.03 billion. The company beat expectations by 8.41% while revenue grew 7.08% on a year-over-year basis. The company said during its conference call it expects Q4 revenue of 54.85 billion to 55.85 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is 54.9 billion for the quarter ending June 30, 2023.
MSFT Q4 June 2023 Consensus:
EPS = 2.54
Revenue = 55.44 B
PE = 37
MSFT VWMA levels:
VWMA20 = 343
VWMA50 = 334
VWMA100 = 307
VWMA200 = 273
MSFT earnings recap since 2022:
1/25/22 - open 293, high 300, low 269, close 292 = (-1)
4/26/22 - open 280, high 289, low 259, close 282 = +2
7/26/22 - open 259, high 269, low 243, close 262 = +3
10/25/22 - open 247, high 253, low 230, close 234 = (-13)
1/24/23 - open 243, high 255, low 239, close 240 = (-3)
4/25/23 - open 281, high 302, low 275, close 299 = +18
MSFT options data:
7/28 expiry
Put Volume Total 61,778
Call Volume Total 93,180
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.66
Put Open Interest Total 96,832
Call Open Interest Total 136,498
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.71
8/18 expiry
Put Volume Total 16,507
Call Volume Total 44,217
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.37
Put Open Interest Total 201,437
Call Open Interest Total 264,585
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.76
9/15 expiry
Put Volume Total 14,264
Call Volume Total 14,997
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.95
Put Open Interest Total 208,533
Call Open Interest Total 279,806
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.75
MSFT NO CHANGE IN TARGET381/383The chart posted is MSFT and I had stated that the peak would be 361 area we saw a 366 print this is 1.147 x the drop from 2021 peak to the low nov 2022 212 area . I see this has an abc flat to end a wave 4 from which we should rally to 381/383 in wave 5 of wave B 1.236 =target 381 1.27 is 383.9 so now you have the targets for the last part of the puzzle . I am long calls from 327.9 and 329
Watch out for a head & shoulders playing outWith some classic RSI bearish divergence in play, going long now is risky. I am in a short and will be looking for that right shoulder to confirm the bearish bias. Time for the bulls to show up.
MSFT IdeaDon't mind me. Im just bored going through charts. Here's what I'm anticipating for MSFT. I don't really see it playing out this way. I'm very much bearish on this stock short-term
Possible target 277If it does not go below 218, the goal is a short 250. If there is a pullback and goes higher, the head and shoulders will be worked out, there is a goal of 277.
DBL TOP on MSFT? Waaaat! Long Term chart. #MSFT This double top on MSFT screams downside for the Stock Market in August, don't it? July 31st 2023. Levels = From 335 down to 320 316 off 21 SMA. 21 SMA bounce right here??
Call of The Week - MSFT- The stock slid by -1.57% last week after reporting the earnings.
- The RSI negative divergence is released.
- We’re well placed above; $330 support region – the Bollinger bands’ lower band – and the lower boundary of the upward channel.
- Target: $350/$352.
Microsoft Challenges Fib 3.618 levelMicrosoft - NASDAQ:MSFT
Expectations were beat across the board today but what does the long term monthly chart tell us? All is revealed in the chart. This is a key moment for NASDAQ:MSFT and a pull back or break through to established new highs wouldn't surprise. I'm happy to wait for the confirmations outlined in the chart. That MACD cross though looks appealing.
Earnings Summary
- Profits jumped 20% to 20.1 b
- EPS: $2.69 / Exp $2.56
- Revenue: $56.19B / Exp $55.49B
- Azure (cloud) revenue up 26% / Exp 27%
