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MSTR trade ideas

MSTR heads up at $187.88: Golden Genesis a good exit cuz may dipThis is a follow up to my previous chart and entry call (click). MSTR launched from our "Decision Zone" in previous chart. Now approaching a major landmark, a Golden Genesis fib. Scalpers should take profits, Holders should sell some there. $287.88 is the exact level to watch for TP. $261.94 is a minor ratio for aggressive SL. $245.95 is strong ratio for conservative SL. . Previous Analysis: ================================================================== .
NASDAQ:MSTR
by EuroMotif
MSTR: Is there any value here?MicroStrategy Incorporated ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has a current BTC balance of 252,220, with plans released during the October ‘24 earnings call to issue both $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in debt to finance further BTC purchases through 2026. The question becomes, is there value here? If the price of MSTR becomes increasingly dependent on the price of BTC, then why not just buy the underlying asset? The latter can likely already be answered. The price is entirely dependent. As noted in the company’s earnings call and outlined in the excerpt from the CoinGeek article below, MSTR’s software business has taken a backseat as the company has completely shifted its focus toward its BTC plan. “On October 30, MicroStrategy released its Q3 financial report card, revealing a sharp decline in revenue from its (formerly) core business intelligence software business, while expenses and net losses saw significant increases. Software revenue for the three months ending September 30 fell 10.3% year-on-year, while the rising costs of that revenue resulted in a net loss of $18.5 million.” During the call, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor insisted that MSTR is not purely a BTC proxy. Looking at the price performance for the past year, you can see that MSTR has outperformed BTC by a multiple greater than 4. As markets tend to do, this is likely the pricing in of future acquisitions. Unlike ETPs (or people, for that matter), MSTR has placed itself in a unique position, with the ability to utilize the various avenues of capital markets to increase its holdings. While this is fundamentally opportunistic, the increase in shares dilutes existing shareholder ownership, reducing their proportional share of MSTR's overall equity. However, given the long-term potential appreciation of BTC, the value of the underlying asset may offset this dilution, ultimately providing greater returns despite the increase in outstanding shares. This is no different than any other growth-oriented company, albeit Apple, NVIDIA, etc., actually produces something. If the price of the underlying asset goes down, this further decreases the BTC value per share, leading to a potential point of clarity for shareholders asking themselves, “why not just own the underlying asset?” Looking ahead, I do think MSTR provides a unique opportunity. Inevitably, given the scenario described above, the stock will continue to face elevated volatility (something that the company has noted as a positive). Given future declines in the price of the underlying asset (presumably in 2026 and 2027), this allows MSTR to accumulate more BTC, reducing its cost basis and optimistically allowing investors to enjoy increased volatility to the upside yet again.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by PeakInvestmentStrategies
2
MSTRThe bullish case for MicroStrategy (MSTR) appears compelling. While the company has already experienced significant growth this year, several potential catalysts suggest further upside: Bitcoin Market Dynamics We're potentially entering the final phase of the Bitcoin bull cycle The company's significant Bitcoin holdings position it to benefit from any price appreciation Market Environment Current market conditions suggest a potentially reflexive period ahead Bitcoin price projections from analysts range from $220,000 to $500,000 Corporate Development Recent earnings call highlighted a substantial $42 billion acquisition This strategic move could significantly impact the company's valuation Given these factors, MSTR's valuation could see substantial multiplication from current levels.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by RichmondHillCM
MSTR - 2024's Best High Beta PlayAfter entering NASDAQ:MSTR at $200 in January of 2023, it is evident that MicroStrategy shines as the ideal stock to generate profit day after day. Given its high beta nature and volatility based on Bitcoin's movement, we can price NASDAQ:MSTR in a manner that is fixed to Bitcoin's price. The reasoning is that MicroStrategy believes, and has believed, that CRYPTOCAP:BTC is the most appropriate store of value now and in the future. It appears that they may be correct. I am anticipating NASDAQ:MSTR to surpass $1750-1775 and reach $2,000. CRYPTOCAP:BTC should hit $75,000 at that point. This is where I will decide to sell off some shares in anticipation of a price correction down to $800-$1250 per share of $MSTR. At this time, I believe Bitcoin will fall to 52K to 55K. It should, in order to make sense, considering liquidity in the market. As of 3/13/2024, it costs $42,000-$47,000 USD to mine 1 CRYPTOCAP:BTC , based on the average cost of electricity globally. I believe we will see a very common "sell the news" event come April prior to, or during, the halving. Bitcoin will correct. The halving will double the complexity to mine one Bitcoin, which will push the electricity cost to the range of $84,000-$95,000 USD. This will be the next gap up, and Bitcoin will continue to reach historical highs. Stay tuned.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Terrapins
7
Opening (IRA): MSTR Dec 20th 75/155 Short Put Vertical... for a 5.43 credit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 61.1/113.9. Doing something a little different here, selling the 10 delta short put and buying a put that cuts BPE in about half over doing a naked. Going low delta because, well, the underlying kind of scares the poo out of me. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 74.57 Max Profit: 5.43 ROC at Max: 7.28% 50% Max: 2.72 ROC at 50% Max: 3.64 Compare: Dec 20th 155 Short Put (Cash Secured) BPE: 148.30 Max Profit: 6.65 ROC at Max: 4.48% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by NaughtyPines
Ticker: $MSTR Pinbar daily close NASDAQ:MSTR A potential pinbar candle is forming on the daily chart, which could signal a bullish reversal. A pinbar candle is a strong indicator of potential price direction change, often showing that buyers have regained control after a period of selling pressure. However, a pinbar candle alone may lack significance if it forms in a neutral area of the chart with little trading context. In this case, the pinbar has formed at a strong support level, which previously acted as resistance. This alignment with a key level enhances the pinbar’s strength as a reversal signal. Support and resistance levels are crucial for analyzing price action, as they often act as zones where buying or selling pressure increases. When a pinbar appears at such a significant level, it suggests that bulls are stepping in to defend this area, increasing the likelihood of an upward movement. If the pinbar closes above or near the support level, it could confirm a solid buy signal, particularly if other indicators align. BTC is also holding a similar strong support level - let’s see if the bulls can retake the wheel!
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by coilemard
1
MicroStrategy is buying additional $42 billion worth of BTCMicroStrategy announced its plans to buy more Bitcoin: $42 billion worth of BTC. Why does it matter to us? After the purchase, over 3% of the Bitcoin supply will be held by a single company. Other companies are also adding BTC to their balance sheet. Countries are also doing it. BUT Bitcoin is scarce. So far, in total, NASDAQ:MSTR has invested $9.9B into Bitcoin; this investment will be more than 4x that figure. MicroStrategy is currently valued at $50.11B, which means that BTC has been playing an important role in increasing shareholder value. Michael Saylor announced "raising $42 billion of capital over the next 3 years, comprised of $21 billion of equity and $21 billion of fixed income securities".
NASDAQ:MSTR
by HenriqueCentieiro
2
MicroStrategy earningsMSTR earnings are today, Wednesday 10/30 at 4pm. I'm posting this as a short because there's no logical reason for MicroStrategy to have such a drastic divergence from Bitcoin since September. With BTC +68% YTD at all time high levels and MSTR +280% YTD there's just no point being long MSTR all the way up here around 260 / share. The market can stay irrational longer than I think. However, MSTR is way past the point of a good risk : reward long in my opinion. If you're not a trader and are a perma Bitcoin bull, better off selling MSTR and putting the proceeds into BTC before this thing drops. This is my bias speculation. I'm curious to see how far the market will push MSTR beyond all common sense. MSTR financials Q1-24 EPS $-0.31 Q2-24 EPS $-0.57 Q3-24 EPS estimate $-0.11 MSTR options data 11/1/24 expiry Put Volume Total 23,648 Call Volume Total 33,277 Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.71 Put Open Interest Total 158,229 Call Open Interest Total 157,110 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.01 11/8/24 expiry Put Volume Total 3,352 Call Volume Total 6,089 Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.55 Put Open Interest Total 22,599 Call Open Interest Total 26,203 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.86 11/15/24 expiry Put Volume Total2,413 Call Volume Total4,087 Put/Call Volume Ratio0.59 Put Open Interest Total160,616 Call Open Interest Total142,239 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.13
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Options360
9
MicroStrategy's Bullish Run: A Closer LookMicroStrategy, a business intelligence company, has been making significant strides in the cryptocurrency market, particularly with its substantial Bitcoin holdings. The company's market capitalization is inching closer to that of Coinbase, a major cryptocurrency exchange. This surge in valuation has sparked interest and speculation among investors and analysts alike. A Strategic Bitcoin Bet MicroStrategy's aggressive Bitcoin buying strategy, spearheaded by CEO Michael Saylor, has positioned the company as a major player in the cryptocurrency space. The company's belief in Bitcoin's long-term potential as a store of value and a hedge against inflation has driven its decision to allocate a significant portion of its treasury to the cryptocurrency. This strategic move has paid off handsomely, as Bitcoin's price has soared recently. As a result, MicroStrategy's stock price has also experienced substantial growth, attracting the attention of investors seeking exposure to the cryptocurrency market without directly owning Bitcoin. Market Cap Milestone Looms With its market capitalization steadily rising, MicroStrategy is on the cusp of a major milestone: overtaking Coinbase's market cap. At the time of writing, MicroStrategy is just $3.9 billion away from achieving this feat. This would be a significant achievement for a company that was once primarily known for its business intelligence software. Factors Driving MicroStrategy's Success Several factors have contributed to MicroStrategy's impressive performance: 1. Bitcoin's Price Appreciation: The continued rise in Bitcoin's price has directly benefited MicroStrategy, as the company's Bitcoin holdings have increased in value. 2. Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin: Growing institutional interest in Bitcoin has legitimized the cryptocurrency and increased its appeal to mainstream investors. 3. MicroStrategy's Strong Balance Sheet: The company's solid financial position has enabled it to weather market volatility and continue its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. 4. Investor Confidence in Michael Saylor's Vision: Saylor's unwavering belief in Bitcoin and his ability to execute on his strategy have instilled confidence in investors. Technical Analysis: A Bullish Outlook Technical analysis of MicroStrategy's stock chart reveals a bullish trend. The stock has been forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating a strong uptrend. Additionally, the recent surge in trading volume relative to Nvidia, a tech giant, suggests increased investor interest and potential for further price appreciation. The MicroStrategy stock-to-BTC ratio has also hit an all-time high, surpassing the levels seen during the 2021 bull run. This indicates that investors increasingly value MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings, which could further drive the stock price higher. Potential Risks and Challenges While MicroStrategy's future looks promising, it is important to acknowledge the potential risks and challenges that could impact the company's performance: 1. Bitcoin Price Volatility: Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, and any significant decline could negatively impact MicroStrategy's valuation. 2. Regulatory Uncertainty: Changes in cryptocurrency regulations could create uncertainty and hinder the company's operations. 3. Competition from Other Bitcoin-Focused Companies: Other companies may emerge as strong competitors, challenging MicroStrategy's dominance in the Bitcoin investment space. Conclusion MicroStrategy's impressive performance and its strategic focus on Bitcoin have positioned it as a major player in the cryptocurrency market. As the company continues to execute its strategy and benefit from Bitcoin's long-term growth potential, its market capitalization could surpass that of Coinbase, marking a significant milestone. However, investors should be mindful of the inherent risks associated with cryptocurrency investments and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by bryandowningqln
Massive Bearish Butterfly in MSTR? I've explained my BTC thesis is depth and discussed my entries into the proxy bets of COIN and ETH shorts last week. Another one I have been wanting to short for some time now if MSTR but it has the pending harmonic and it had not hit the 1.61 yet. Until that is hit, there's always a chance you short and it goes parabolic immediately and then tops a bit over the 1.61. I've learned to wait. But now we're right into the area I want to attempt big shorts on this.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by holeyprofit
7