Hanzo | Nas100 15 min Bearish Break – Next Move is Confirmed 🆚 Nas100 – Hanzo’s Strike Setup
🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
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💯 Main Focus: Bearish Break at 19870
We are watching this zone closely.
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Analysis
👌 Market Signs (15M TF):
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 20030
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 19750
• Strong Rejections seen at:
➗ 19890 – Major support / Key level
➗ 20050 – Proven resistance
🩸 Key Zones to Watch:
• 19950 – 🔥 Bullish breakout level X 7 Swing Retest
• 19980 – Strong resistance (tested 5 times)
• 19900 – Equal lows
• 19980 – Equal highs
NDX trade ideas
Stock Markets Rise Amid US–China Trade Deal ProgressStock Markets Rise Amid US–China Trade Deal Progress
As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) formed a bullish gap at Monday’s market open and, as of this morning, is trading at its highest level since early March.
This is driven by the announcement from the Trump administration of progress in securing a trade deal with China, following weekend negotiations held in Switzerland. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the two-day talks with Chinese officials in Geneva as “productive”, adding that more detailed information would be shared on Monday.
As a reminder, the US imposed tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods, to which Beijing responded with a 125% levy on American imports.
Technical Analysis of the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Chart
The chart is showing bullish signals:
→ The downward trendline (shown in orange) was broken around the 19,666 level, which has since acted as support (indicated by the blue arrow).
→ Today, the Nasdaq 100 has moved above last week’s resistance near the 20,175 level.
→ Market fluctuations are forming an upward channel (shown in blue) from the April lows, with the price currently sitting in the upper half of the channel—typically a sign of strong buying pressure.
Further updates on the US–China trade deal may reveal key details, potentially reinforcing the current bullish sentiment in the equity markets.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq Short: completion of wave structureA few days back, on the weekend, I posted an idea about pending short but price went down first to create a 4th wave before going back up to complete the price target last night. So, this is the updated wave count. Wait for retracement to short. Stop above the high.
Nasdaq 100 - Bull trap print begins circa April 30thThe Nasdaq 100 index is seriously oversold as market participants are gripped by fear. Understandable… however, markets do not crash in fear. Instead the opposite happens, counterintuitive as that sounds.
The Index shall continue display volatility until sellers are exhausted, which is around April 30th when the bottom shall print. So yeah, this week is probably going to suck what life remains of your account. However selling now is not in your best interest, I would argue the opposite. Let me explain why.
On the above daily chart the Nasdaq 100 death cross approaches, forecast to print on April 30th (the dotted lines). The death cross (On the Nasdaq 100 only) is defined as the 65 day Simple Moving average (blue line) crossing down the 240-day SMA with price action under the 240-day SMA.
Now the date has been changing a lot with recent volatility, to counter that behaviour the forecast for the cross uses the "Box Jenkins" forecast method (Ww is a data scientist and engineer specialising in probability theory and stochastic processes, will be adding the tool to my collection of scripts shortly!). Read more about Box Jenkins method here:
www.investopedia.com
Now I’m not normally a fan of moving averages, but on "looking left"… you’ll find me on the front row seat. I tell you all that to tell you this, look left. Look left at past death crosses using this method:
17% rally from death cross on March 15th, 2022
22% rally from death cross on December 18th, 2018
17% rally from death cross on February 16th, 2016
You get the picture. This behaviour continues to repeat with the previous ten death crosses until the print on October 12th, 2000, where the bull trap was followed by a market crash of 80%.
In terms of probability there is a 90% chance the death cross shall result in a positive rally. However, it is my guess many readers will place more weight on the 10% chance of a crash. That’s emotion, not reason! In fact if you scan over many of the published ideas on tradingview you'll notice the bearish slant is strong.
Is this time is different?
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There are no certainties, only probabilities. Price action could continue selling off following the cross to reach new lows. That said, this idea is to forecast a bull trap, not a continuation in the market uptrend. The probability favouring a rally is incredibly high. After that, not so good. Not good at all.
Price action forecast on rally
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Approximately 19.2 to 19.5k
Conclusions
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The market is oversold as emotions run high. History tells us It is unlikely the correction ramps up in momentum after the cross prints. However the cross can indicate the index may be about to enter a bear market should price action reject the 50-day SMA, which it is very likely. That’s for the next post!
Ww
Nasdaq Bullish Reversal in Play !!📈 NASDAQ Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds Up
✅ Breakout Confirmed: Price action has broken above the descending channel, signaling a reversal from the previous downtrend.
📊 EMA Crossover: The 50 EMA is crossing above the 200 EMA (a golden cross), historically a bullish indicator.
🔼 Momentum Strong: Price is accelerating above EMAs with a steep upward trajectory, suggesting buyers are in control.
🔮 Potential Target: With sustained momentum, price could aim for the 21,000+ region in the short term.
If the price sustains above the 19,500 zone, dips could be considered buying opportunities in the current bullish structure.
Hanzo : NAS100 15m: Bearish Confirmed After Liquidity Trap Done🔥 NAS100 – 15 Min Scalping Analysis (Bearish Setup)
Bias: Bearish
Time Frame: 15 Min
Entry Type: Confirmed Entry After Liquidity Sweep 20720
🩸 Key Reasons for Entry:
☄️Price manipulated above previous high (liquidity grab trap).
☄️Strong rejection from key supply zone with SMC confluence.
☄️Bearish order block + break of market structure.
☄️Entry respects higher timeframe resistance level.
🔤 Fair value gap / imbalance completed.
🔻Setup aligned with institutional reversal window
Target: Next 15M demand zone / 1:3+ RR
Status: trade active 👌
NASDAQ broke above its 1D MA200 after 2 months! Target 22000.Nasdaq (NDX) broke today above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 months (since March 06), following the U.S. - Chine trade deal. This trend-line also had the March 26 rejection under its belt, which initiated the most aggressive part of the 'Trade War' correction.
The last time the index broke above its 1D MA200 on a similar pattern was when it was recovering after the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis. The February 01 2023 break-out produced an instant rise to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension before a short-term correction to re-test the 1D MA200.
As a result, we expect 22000 (1.382 Fib ext) to come as early as this week before any discussions can be made for a new pull-back.
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NASDAQ: Rebounding on the 4H MA50. New High for the Channel Up.Nasdaq is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.883, MACD = 127.320, ADX = 37.197) and is rebounding today on the 4H MA50, right before the HL of the Channel Up. This is a technical bottom that calls for a buy. We aim for a new +6% bullish wave (TP = 20,800).
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Ultimate Guide to Master ICT KillzonesWhy Timing Matters Just as Much as Price
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT methodologies are built on the idea that markets are manipulated by large players with precision. While most traders obsess over price levels, entry models, and liquidity zones, many fail to realize that none of those matter if they happen at the wrong time. Time is not an afterthought, it's a core part of the edge.
Price can show you where the move might happen, but time shows you when smart money is most likely to act. That window of action is what ICT calls the killzone.
What Are Killzones?
Killzones are specific time periods in the trading day when smart money typically executes large moves. These sessions have predictable volatility and institutional order flow. They are not just random hours, they coincide with major session opens and overlaps.
The most relevant killzones are:
London Killzone (LKO), 2 AM to 5 AM EST
New York Killzone (NYKO), 7 AM to 10 AM EST
New York Lunch/Dead Zone, 11:30 AM to 1 PM EST (low probability, often reversal traps)
Each killzone offers unique opportunities depending on how liquidity has been engineered prior. ICT-style setups are most reliable when they form within, or directly in anticipation of, these windows.
The Trap Before the Real Move
Smart money loves to trap retail traders. This trap usually happens just before or early in a killzone. For example, if price takes out a key high at 2:30 AM EST (London open), many retail traders see a breakout. But those in tune with SMC see it as a classic liquidity raid, bait before the reversal.
Once that external liquidity is taken, smart money shows its hand with displacement, a sudden, aggressive move in the opposite direction. This typically forms a clean imbalance (Fair Value Gap) or a breaker block. That’s your cue.
If the price returns to that level within the killzone, that’s the optimal entry window.
Confluence is King: Time, Liquidity, and Structure
The most reliable SMC setups happen when:
Liquidity is swept early into a killzone
Displacement confirms the real direction during the killzone
Entry happens via return to an FVG or OB created within that same session
The setup might still look right if it forms outside these windows, but without proper timing, it’s often just noise or engineered liquidity to trap impatient traders.
Real-World Example: NY Killzone Short
NY, At 8:30 AM EST, price runs above the Asian highs, sweeping liquidity
Displacement, Sharp bearish move breaks structure to the downside at 8:45 AM
Entry, Price retraces into the 5M FVG at 9:10 AM
Result, Clean reversal into a nice profit trageting liquidity, all within the NY session
Outside of this killzone structure, the same setup likely would have chopped or failed.
Common Mistakes Traders Make With Time
Chasing price outside of killzones, Setup might look good, but volume is thin and no follow-through comes
Assuming all killzones are equal, London setups are often cleaner in structure, while NY has more manipulation around news
Forcing trades in NY lunch, Midday reversals do happen, but they’re lower probability. If you're not already in a position by 11 AM EST, it's often best to wait for the next day
The Discipline Edge
Most traders overtrade not because they lack setups, but because they don’t filter based on time. By only trading when price interacts with your levels during active killzones, you immediately reduce the number of bad trades and increase your focus on meaningful opportunities.
Good setups are rare. Good setups in the right timing window are even rarer. That’s where consistency comes from.
Final Thoughts
Time is not optional. In SMC and ICT, it’s not enough to have the level, you need the timing. Killzones are your filter, your edge, and your context for every trade.
Once you understand how time and price move together, and stop treating every moment on the chart equally, your trading will start to reflect the true flow of smart money.
Wait for time, wait for price, then strike.
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Nasdaq 100 off lows on Bessent remarksUS stocks trimmed their earlier losses after the Trump administration delivered the latest dose of jawboning. This time it was trade secretary Scott Bessent, saying trade negotiations with several partners are going well and that there is a possibility of “substantial reduction” in tariffs on US goods. He added some deals could be announced as early as this week. That was enough to trigged dip-buying, causing major indices like the Nasdaq to bounce off their earlier lows.
The Nasdaq has found a bit of resistance in the last couple of days from the area shaded on the chart between 20,000 to around 20,150 where it had previously encountered support. See area shaded on the chart. A closing break above here is what the bulls would be eying this week, although for that to happen, some trade deals may well have to be announced first.
By Fawad Razaqzada market analysts with FOREX.com
REPEATING 2022 PATTERN?We humans love to see patterns so we can try to understand our own existence and our perception of almost everything.
Very interesting comparison between 2022 and 2025. Though market conditions seem different we can see clearly the failed attempt to break above de 200 SMA in 2022. It may repeat again.
NAS100 Reaches Major Supply Zone – Will Bulls Hold or Fade?The NAS100 has just broken into a major supply zone around 20,139 – 20,470, previously tested in late April and early May. This zone has historically triggered sell-offs, as seen from the previous price reactions.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 20,139 – 20,470 (Visible Supply Zone)
Mid Support: 18,830 (Strong bounce level in April)
Demand Zone: 16,948 – 17,300 (Price base with historical accumulation)
What I'm Watching:
If bulls break and hold above 20,470, we could see a new bullish leg higher.
Failure to hold this zone could bring a sharp retracement toward 18,830 or even 16,948.
Upcoming U.S. economic events marked on the chart may be the catalyst for the next move.
Trade Ideas:
Short-Term Bears: Look for rejection candles or fake breakouts at current highs.
Trend Traders: Wait for a confirmed breakout and retest above 20,470 for longs.
Swing Buyers: Watch for bullish setups around 18,830 or the demand zone at 16,948.
Volume Profile + LuxAlgo Zones confirm this supply and demand setup. Smart money tends to react at these extremes—watch closely!
NASDAQ Weekly Outlook - Potential ShortsPrice pushed up on Friday 25 May into an area of imbalance at 20170 and closed.
Then we have Monday which pushed up through out the day and failed to break and close above Friday 25th Hi, ending the day inside of Fridays candle followed by Tuesday being bear and failing to break and close above Monday hi candle but managed to break and close below Mondays candle close.
By this creating the high of the week, on a weekly time frame, reason for the short is to fill the daily volume imbalance highlighted in yellow. As price always needs to fill gaps in the market left behind by inefficient price action.
Only then I assume one could start looking for longs, as all sell side liquidity has been cleared.
US100 BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 20,075.8
Target Level: 19,221.3
Stop Loss: 20,643.2
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
NASDQhe image shows a daily chart (1D) of the Nasdaq 100 (US100) on TradingView, with a detailed technical analysis suggesting a possible continuation of the long (bullish) trend, supported by various price levels, trendlines, and visual cues. Here's a description based on the chart:
🟦 Current Context
The price has recently broken above a key resistance area around 20,016 – 20,038, which may now act as support.
The current candle is bullish (green) and closes above this range, showing buyer strength.
There is a clear upward trend starting mid-April, with higher lows and consecutive bullish candles.
📈 Key Technical Elements
A target is marked at 21,009.5, highlighted by an orange horizontal line.
A light blue rectangle represents a potential projected move range, starting around the 20,000 zone and aiming toward 21,000.
A red box below the current price likely indicates the invalidation area or stop-loss zone.
Intermediate support levels include:
19,756.0 (blue line)
19,226.9 (orange line)
18,304.8 (deeper support)
🔁 Potential Long Continuation Scenario
If price holds above the 20,000 – 20,038 zone, we may see an acceleration toward the 21,009 target.
The overall pattern suggests a breakout from a consolidation phase, followed by a retest of the broken level (now support), and a potential upward continuation.
The diagonal trendlines indicate the formation of a broad ascending channel.
📅 Timing
The projected target may be reached within the coming weeks: a vertical black line is marked on May 21, 2025, possibly indicating the expected timeframe for the move.
✅ Conclusion
There is a clear bullish market structure, with a resistance breakout and well-defended supports. Unless there’s a false breakout or negative macro news, the long projection toward 21,009 appears technically valid.
X2: NQ/US100/NAS100 Long - Day Trades 1:2X2:
Risking 1% to make 2%
NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Long for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 2%
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for FOMC?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect corrective moves from the specified range, but if the index continues to move upwards towards 21,000 points, we can look for the next Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio.
Last week, U.S. equity markets experienced $8.9 billion in capital outflows, while equity markets in Japan and the European Union saw net inflows. Additionally, U.S. Treasury bonds recorded an outflow of $4.5 billion—the largest since December 2023. Meanwhile, the gold market witnessed its first weekly investment decline since January.
Looking ahead, financial markets are focused on the upcoming earnings reports from major companies across sectors such as technology, healthcare, automotive, energy, and financial services. These reports are expected to significantly influence equity trends, investment strategies, and corporate outlooks. Below is a daily breakdown of key companies set to release earnings this week:
Monday, May 5, 2025
The week starts with a focus on the healthcare and biotech sectors:
• Before market open: Companies such as Palantir, Ford, Onsemi, and Tyson Foods will report earnings. Palantir and Ford are particularly noteworthy for investors in the tech and auto sectors.
• After market close: Healthcare firms like Hims & Hers Health, Axsome Therapeutics, and financial company CNA Financial will report.
Tuesday, May 6, 2025
Tuesday highlights several key tech earnings:
• Before market open: Celsius, Datadog, Rivian, and Tempus will publish their results. Rivian’s report is especially anticipated due to the intense competition in the electric vehicle space.
• After market close: Tech giants like AMD and Arista Networks will release earnings, along with Marriott from the hospitality sector.
Wednesday, May 7, 2025
A packed day for earnings reports:
• Before market open: Reports from Uber and Teva are expected, along with ARM Holdings, a key player in semiconductors.
• After market close: AppLovin, Unity, and Robinhood will release their reports—representing digital gaming, software, and fintech respectively.
Thursday, May 8, 2025
This day centers on digital health, cryptocurrency, and e-commerce:
• Before market open: Peloton and Shopify will report. Shopify’s performance is particularly critical in the online retail sector.
• After market close: Crypto firm Coinbase and online sports betting platform DraftKings are in focus.
Friday, May 9, 2025
Fewer companies will report, but some are of strategic interest:
• Firms like 1stdibs, Ani Pharmaceuticals, and Embecta are scheduled, as well as Telos and Algonquin—key names in energy and cybersecurity investing.
This week, markets are closely monitoring Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. At the March session, the Fed left rates unchanged and signaled only two potential cuts totaling 50 basis points for the year, based on its dot plot—suggesting a cautious approach to monetary easing.
Simultaneously, April’s U.S. Services PMI is set to be released today, providing clearer insights into post-tariff business activity.
Amazon’s CEO stated that, so far, there is no indication of reduced demand due to tariff concerns. Some inventory spikes were noted in specific categories, likely driven by stockpiling ahead of tariff implementation. Retail prices, on average, have not significantly increased, and most sellers have yet to raise prices—though that could change depending on how tariff policies evolve. Notably, essential goods have grown at twice the rate of other categories and now account for a third of all unit sales in the U.S.
Following April’s jobs report, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June dropped from 75% to 42%. With only one more employment report due before the June 18 meeting, hopes for an early policy shift have faded. Some analysts argue that without the tariff conflict, the Fed might already be cutting rates, given the downward trend in inflation, steady growth, and Congressional focus on fiscal measures.
The April jobs data showed that the U.S. labor market remains resilient—neither too strong to spark inflation fears nor too weak to trigger panic. After the release, with market confidence rebounding, Goldman Sachs forecasted the Fed’s first rate cut to come at the July 30 meeting.
The consensus expectation is for the Fed funds rate to remain in the current 4.25%-4.5% range, unchanged since January. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns just a 1.8% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
Economists warn that Trump’s newly imposed tariffs—active since April—could drive up prices and hurt employment, challenging the Fed’s dual mandate of controlling both inflation and joblessness. However, recent data shows inflation remained mild in March and the labor market held steady in April.
Nancy Vanden Houten, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, wrote: “The data is strong enough for the Fed to stay on the sidelines and monitor how tariffs influence inflation and expectations.” While hard data remains stable, forecasts and sentiment surveys signal looming challenges. Business leaders and individuals express concern that rising costs may burden consumers and businesses in the coming months or years, possibly even tipping the economy into recession.
The same repeat as 4 April 2022The market seems to be recovering and more and more positive ideas are emerging. However, on a weekly timeframe, the NDX appears to be forming a pattern very similar to what we saw at the end of 2021. Even the RSI shows remarkably similar levels.
Personally, I’m staying cautious. I haven’t taken a position yet, but I’m ready to buy in on the next significant dip. I’ve set my alert around 14,500 – let’s hope we reach that level again. 😉
What are your thoughts on this? Feel free to share your opinion!
NAS100USD: Institutional Support Fuels Bullish MomentumGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe that institutional order flow remains bullish, and as such, we aim to align our trading opportunities with this directional bias.
Key Observations:
Institutional Support Zones:
Price has recently retraced into a significant institutional support area—a large mitigation block, where smart money typically mitigates previous sell orders and initiates new buy orders. This zone is further reinforced by the presence of a reclaimed order block, signaling an area where prior institutional buying occurred and may now be re-engaged.
Confluence of Bullish Arrays:
The alignment of the mitigation block, reclaimed order block, and an adjacent breaker block provides strong confluence. While price is currently showing signs of rejection at this zone, it is important to exercise patience and wait for confirmation before entering, especially given the size of the mitigation block.
Trading Strategy:
Upon confirmation, we will look to initiate long positions from these institutional support levels, targeting liquidity pools resting in premium pricing zones where buy-side liquidity is likely to reside.
Stay disciplined and let the market confirm your narrative.
Kind Regards,
The Architect