NDX trade ideas
NAS100 Confirms Upside After Testing 1M PPHello,
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 has tested the 1M PP, receiving sufficient support to push the price above the 1D PP. This confirms the potential for further upward movement.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
NasdaqOn daily timeframe the Market is Extremly bullish, and on strong support of pscychological level. And also on cot report we have more bullish net position than bearish once. And H4 we can see that it is also bullish,till 23000
Elliott Wave Analysis and Fibonacci Projections for US 100CAPITALCOM:US100
The Elliott Wave Theory identifies 5 impulsive waves in the direction of the trend, followed by 3 corrective waves:
Impulse Waves (1-2-3-4-5): Main trend movement.
Corrective Waves (A-B-C): Countertrend correction.
2. Detailed Analysis of Observed Waves
Wave 1: Initial Upward Impulse
Definition: This is the first wave that initiates a new trend, driven by optimistic investors.
Key Level on Your Chart:
The bottom of Wave 1 is observed at 21,571.8, marking the trend’s starting point.
Wave 2: Correction of Wave 1
Definition: This wave corrects a portion of Wave 1, typically between 38.2% and 61.8% of Fibonacci retracements.
Interpretation: The correction does not breach the starting point of Wave 1.
Observation:
Wave 2's correction stays above the critical support.
Wave 3: Strongest Impulse Wave
Definition: This is typically the longest and strongest wave, often extending 1.618 times Wave 1.
Key Features:
It surpasses the high of Wave 1 and creates a significant trend move.
Key Level on Your Chart:
The peak of Wave 3 is at 22,133.4, confirming a strong upward move.
Wave 4: Intermediate Correction
Definition: Wave 4 corrects part of Wave 3 but does not overlap with Wave 1’s territory.
Typical Retracement: Between 23.6% and 50% of Wave 3 (Fibonacci levels).
Observation:
The low of Wave 4 is seen at 21,946.8, aligning with a retracement between 38.2% and 50%, indicating a moderate pullback.
Wave 5: Final Impulse Wave
Definition: This wave continues the trend but is usually weaker than Wave 3.
Projection:
Fibonacci extensions project Wave 5 to end around 0.618x or 1.0x of the distance between Wave 1 and Wave 3.
Key Level on Your Chart:
Wave 5 is projected to reach 22,400 (based on a 61.8% extension).
3. Fibonacci Levels and Wave Validation
Fibonacci Retracements:
Wave 2: Corrects 38.2%–61.8% of Wave 1.
Wave 4: Corrects 23.6%–50% of Wave 3.
Fibonacci Extensions:
Wave 3: Often extends 1.618x the length of Wave 1.
Wave 5: Projected at 0.618x or 1.0x the total move of Wave 1–3.
4. Validating the Elliott Wave Scenario
To ensure the waves on your chart follow the Elliott Wave principles:
Wave 2 does not retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.
Wave 3 is not the shortest of the three impulsive waves (1, 3, 5).
Wave 4 does not overlap the territory of Wave 1.
5. Observations and Projections
Based on your key levels:
Wave 3 successfully formed a strong impulse at 22,133.4.
Wave 4 retraced to 21,946.8, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels.
Wave 5 is projected to reach approximately 22,400, based on the 61.8% Fibonacci extension.
6. Recommendations
Monitor Fibonacci levels to confirm Wave 5's target near 22,400.
Use indicators like RSI or MACD to detect divergences, signaling potential Wave 5 exhaustion.
Validate Elliott Wave rules to avoid misinterpretations.
iamtradingdon | NAS100 Market Daily Technical AnalysisWhile NAS100 CAPITALCOM:US100 continues to display a bullish trend, I closely monitor indicators suggesting a likely bearish shift. The price has been rejected by an uptrend line, marking this area as a significant institutional resistance zone. If the price drops and a bearish candle closes below 22180, I will establish my target at 21800.
Nasdaq 100: Sustained Uptrend with Strong Momentum SignalsChart Analysis: The Nasdaq 100 has maintained a steady uptrend after rebounding from its August low, respecting a rising trendline (black) and staying above key moving averages. Here's a breakdown of the key observations:
1️⃣ Trendline Support:
The price has respected the ascending black trendline, acting as dynamic support during pullbacks. This showcases strong bullish commitment.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Projection:
The price is approaching the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (around 22,694), a potential area for traders to watch closely for reaction. Extensions like this often serve as resistance in trending markets.
3️⃣ Moving Averages:
The 50-day SMA (blue) remains upward sloping, while the 200-day SMA (red) confirms a long-term bullish structure.
Price action staying well above these averages signals continued strength.
4️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Nearing 70, indicating strong momentum, though traders may watch for overbought signals.
MACD: Bullish crossover continues, with rising histogram bars suggesting increasing buying pressure.
What to Watch:
Whether the price can sustain momentum towards the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level (~22,694).
A healthy pullback towards the trendline or the 50-day SMA could offer clues for continuation patterns.
Momentum indicators may warrant attention for short-term overbought conditions.
The Nasdaq 100 remains firmly in an uptrend with bulls firmly in control. A break and hold above the Fibonacci extension would signal potential for further gains. Keep an eye on volume and momentum as price nears key levels.
-MW
My expectations to Nasdaq!Hello guys,
on the chart you will find my target and it could go higher to 22150 but i would say 20000 due that it broke the downtrend purple line
My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help.
I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
USNAS100 / Bullish Momentum...Technical Analysis
The price still trades at the bullish area, it seems to continue in the bullish area toward 22020 especially if it closes 1h candle above 21900.
So as long as trades above 21770 and 21900, it will be bullish to get 22020 and 22200.
Otherwise, it should break 21770 to be a bearish trend till 21630.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21900
Resistance Levels: 22020, 22200, 22450
Support Levels: 21770, 21620, 21520
Trend Outlook:
- Consolidation between 21770 and 21900
- Bearish Momentum with stability below 21530
- Bullish Momentum by stability above 21900
NAS100USD: Capitalizing on Bearish Displacement!Greetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, the M15 timeframe shows a recent shift to bearish price action, marked by significant displacement to the downside. This displacement provides strong evidence of institutional sell order distribution, as seen in the large bearish candles that led to a bearish break of structure.
Key Observations:
1. Premium Price Retracement:
After the bearish break, price retraced into deep premium levels, where institutional arrays are present.
These premium zones offer opportunities to seek confirmations for selling toward discount prices.
2. Breaker Block as a Key Zone:
Price has retraced into a premium breaker block, a critical mitigation zone.
What is a Breaker Block?
Breaker blocks are mitigation zones created as institutions mitigate losses from opposing orders placed during the prior trend.
Once price retraces to these zones, institutions close those losing positions and reinstate new orders to align with the prevailing trend.
Trading Strategy:
Entry: Look for confirmation at the premium breaker block to align with institutional order flow.
Target: The primary target is the liquidity pool in discount prices, adhering to the principle of selling in premium and booking profits in discount zones, mirroring institutional strategies.
If you have insights or questions, feel free to share them in the comments. Let’s analyze, learn, and succeed together!
Kind Regards,
The Architect
Maybe its different this time..it looks like a pattern but maybe its different this time? maybe stocks are not overvalued enough and buffet is wrong selling into cash over 50% of his portfolio ?
USNAS100/ Decline from NEW HIGHTechnical Analysis
The Nasdaq is currently attempting to rise above its previous resistance level of 21,770. If successful, it is expected to reach a new high of 21,900 before initiating a gradual decline. After peaking at 21,900, the index is projected to step down, revisiting the 21,770 level. A break below this point may lead to further declines, with targets at 21,620, 21,535, and eventually 21,420.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21420
Resistance Levels: 21770, 21880, 22000
Support Levels: 21,675, 21,535, 21420
US100 Is Very Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for US100.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 21,766.7.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 20,570.5 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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US100 | 30M | SCALPING TIME Hi guys, I made CAPITALCOM:US100 analysis for you. For this kind of analysis, please value my analysis with your likes Thank you very much to everyone who supports me by liking
SIGNAL ALERT
SELL US100 21,726.5 - 21,730.1
🟢TP1: 21,700,9
🟢TP2: 21,670,1
🟢TP3: 21,600,1
🔴SL: 21,831,8
Stay with love guys.
NAS100USD: Anticipating Temporary Bearish Order Flow?Greetings Traders,
Today's analysis highlights significant bullish momentum in NAS100USD, driven by the heavy volatility following the CPI news release. Despite the bullish institutional order flow, there is potential for temporary bearish order flow. This could either serve as a brief retracement to meet specific objectives before continuing the bullish trend or, possibly, a full reversal of price action. While we must wait for further market confirmation, current conditions provide an opportunity to target the sell stop objectives highlighted on the chart.
Key Observations and Confluences:
1. Institutional Price Delivery Insight:
At present, price is positioned in a premium zone and has recently taken out Engineered Resistance Liquidity, where premium buy stops reside. Institutions often use this liquidity to pair orders by selling against these buy stops.
Institutions, having sold at a premium, will aim to buy back positions at a discount (a process associated with profit-taking). Therefore, we anticipate price to move towards liquidity pools at lower discount levels.
2. Trendline Liquidity:
The chart also reveals engineered trendline liquidity, a classic setup where retail traders buy along the trendline, leaving their stop losses below. Institutions view these stop losses as sell stops, representing willing sellers against whom they can close their buy positions. This makes these lows prime targets for institutional activity.
The current evidence provides a strong foundation to anticipate bearish price action towards these liquidity pools, offering a strategic opportunity to align with the institutional narrative.
If you have any insights, questions, or additional analysis, feel free to share them in the comments below. Let's collaborate and grow together as traders.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
Bullish momentum to extend?USTEC is falling towards the pivot which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 21,631.48
1st Support: 21,398.63
1st Resistance: 21,909.69
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Us Nas 100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Nasdaq trading zones: 18-Dec-2024Good morning, traders! As a seasoned price action trader, I'll share my Nasdaq insights to help you improve your trading skills.
Approaching important resistance -161.8% (LOG)We are closing on important channel resistance and 161.8 extension from the previous high in November 2021. RSI 14 shows close to overbought. I expect a strong and healthy pullback to the bottom of the channel, but this correction could take a long time and drag to 2026.
NAS100 NAS100 price is still in a strong uptrend, but we expect that in the short term, there is a chance that the price will correct in the 22195-22247 zone. If the price cannot break through the 22247 level, the price may decline. Consider selling in the red zone.
*Very Risky Trade
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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NAS 23K by end of January 2025Hello Traders,
Using Fibs and trend channel I predict NAS will hit around 23K by the end of January. I also expect this to be a local top.
Let's see what happens.. Stay tuned.
NAS100USD
1)Shorting NAS100USD,pivots strategy shows its at a resistance area/level
2)trend analysis show it at key area to of resistance aswell
US 100 Index – Fed to Bring Christmas Cheer or Fear?The US 100 has been on a roll over the last 2 weeks adding around 800 points or about 3.5% since its opening level of 20,950 on Monday December 2nd.
This week however, the US 100’s December rally faces a tough test on Wednesday in the form of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (1900 GMT) and the Press Conference led by Chairman Jerome Powell (1930 GMT).
Ahead of these events, it’s not so much the actual interest rate decision that stock index traders are nervous about, as the Fed are widely expected to cut rates another 25bps (0.25%) at this meeting.
Their concerns are focused on whether recent resilient US economic data, sticky inflation readings and Trump taking office are enough for Fed policymakers to feel the need to slow the pace of rate cuts as markets move into 2025.
Constituents of the US 100 index, often known as growth stocks, can be more sensitive to US interest rate changes, so this latest Fed meeting may have important implications for the US 100 index.
This could well determine if the Tech sector is to see Christmas cheer in the shape of a ‘Santa rally’, or if the Fed Grinch is set to install fear and uncertainty into traders during the final 2 weeks of 2024.
Technical Backdrop:
Of course, it has already been a strong advance since the August 5th spike low, but what are the levels we can monitor into and over the announcement?
Resistance Points to Watch
While it has been a positive pattern of higher highs and higher lows in price for the US 100 index, resistance has been found at the trendline connecting highs since August 1st, which continued to limit last week’s attempts at strength. This line starts the new week at 21833, and the daily closing defence of this level will be watched closely.
Successful closing breaks above this level, while not a guarantee of future price strength, may see a further phase of upside moves, once again pushing into uncharted territory of new all-time highs.
Fibonacci extension measurements of the November 11th to November 19th correction, offers a possible first resistance level after the trendline, marked by the 38.2% extension at 22151. This may prove to be a stumbling block to any future advance, but if breached price activity could possibly test 23010, the higher 61.8% level.
Support Levels
If corrective themes emerge either into, or after the Fed announcement, a first support level to focus on could be 21286, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November 19th to December 13th strength. While this type of level has in the past limited price weakness, it may not again, but traders could be looking for this area to limit declines once more.
If this first retracement support is unsuccessful in holding any weakness in price, the uptrend connecting the lows since August 5th downside extremes, currently stands at 21111. In the past this level has been able to hold and reverse selling pressure, so daily closes below this level, may be a sign of further price weakness materialising.
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How to flip $2,000 into a million in a bubble. In this post I want to share with you an idea I've shared with my friends irl who have market exposure.
Heading into the 2022 high I strongly encouraged my friends to sell stocks. We were heading into a multi decade resistance level and I'd put the odds somewhere around 80% there'd be a notable reaction to this level. Could be a pullback, could be a crash. If it's a pullback it's easy to get back in, not so easy to get out in a crash. So, no brainer.
Late 2022 I started to tell them it was worth getting back in as long as they used good stop loss rules and then when we got to a 76% retracement of the 2022 drop I started to explain the concept I'll discuss in this post to them.
First let's lay the groundwork for this.
We can focus on the things we know. It's a known that indices have uptrended for a long time. And it's a known of trend development that trends do not get slower. A trend is always increasing in velocity. It goes up faster and faster and then when it comes down it comes down faster than it went up.
This is always what happens. Trends speed up. Regardless of the direction.
Now, in 2022 we hit a multiple decade resistance. This was evidenced by a local market top. Confirming the market also seems to care about this level.
Whatever happens, this is likely to be a major pivot point in the trend. Either we'll top out here or well head into a stage of hyper overperformance. In this overperformance, we will likely see indices up 100% from the current highs. 200 - 300% is on the table, 100% is a number that would have high odds of hitting, based on historical breaks like this.
And if the resistance is actionable, this could all come crashing down in a horrific way.
If you accept these premises that the market is due to either crash up or crash down, then it makes no sense at all to have common stock exposure (Or whatever you prefer).
If the long bet is wrong, you can take crippling losses and if the long bet is right you can make a lot more money betting on the hyper aggressive breakout.
Around 4500 I started to tell my friends this. I told them if I was them I'd drop my stocks. Bank the profits on those and then I'd take 10 - 20% of what I'd made in profits and use these to buy a portfolio of aggressive OTM calls.
My thinking here is if the market yanks, no big deal. SPX could drop 90% and my friends would take rather nominal losses. Giving back a fraction of what they made in the rally rather than seeing all their positions go from profits top negative.
On the other side of the coin, if the breakout comes - they'd make a lot more on the calls than they'd make with common. Depending on aggression level, they'd make a crazy amount more.
A rally similar to the Nasdaq breakout would translate as something like this on SPX.
At this moment in time you can buy Jan 2027 calls for under $150. In the event this move happened, these would be worth min over $65,000. A bit under $75,000 if the move is completed faster and this is not even accounting for the potential of an IV boost if the market goes into hyper performance.
$2,000 into a series of bets on that happening would return over a million in the event that it did actually happen.
This is not without risk. The plan I proposed to my friends has one main risk and that is the market slowly continues to uptrend. Making good gains but not hitting the bubble conditions to make it realistic these deep OTMs actually trade (For context, the statistical probability of profit on these right now is 0.2% - something would have to change).
In that scenario, they'd take some small losses on the call portfolio and they'd have missed out on whatever the gain of just owning the underlying asset would be.
That's the potential cost of the bet. On the upside of that, my friends who had 10s or even 100s of thousands exposure to the bear move can covert this to a few grand risk and still make mega bank if the bubble thesis comes into play.
If SPX hits the 100% move inside of 2 years, these calls pay somewhere around $25,000 per $130 risked. In the event this heads into a blow off event they start to get up to close to $100,000 on those positions.
This is hyper high RR way to bet on a developing bubble. Ensure you do not have excessive losses in a crash and the price of this is basically you convert your bet into a bet that the market will not range. If the market ranges for a year or two, this idea suffers.
I think this is the wise thing to do at this point if speculating in stocks. We're into a binary level in my opinion. A polarising decision will come in this area.
The smart thing to do is to put a hard cap on risk exposure so all bearish tail events do not hurt you and have the potential to make 1,000s of % of profit in the event of a bullish tail event.
I think the probability of a tail event in the coming years is high now. Rarely is the probability of a tail event high, but rarely do we test multiple decades of resistance in indices.
There is so much that can be made or lost in a tail event, that it makes a lot of sense to think about how you can structure bets to survive or thrive in the different outcomes.
If this proves to not be the end stages of a bubble, then I think it's only reasonable to assume we're actually somewhere in the middle of a bubble.
Which means something exceptional is likely to come in the following years - whatever way this inflection point resolves itself.
In my opinion, if you want to bet on continued up moves in indices, you might as well bet on a full fledged bubble.
The odds of indices breaking resistance and slowly limping higher I consider super low. I think we reverse or we fly. I have my bets structured to benefit from either one.
