NDX trade ideas
NASDAQ-100 Head & Shoulders Breakdown?I've been tracking a potential head and shoulders pattern on the NASDAQ-100, with a neckline at 17,720. If the pattern completes and breaks down convincingly, the measured move projects a target near 13,200 — a significant potential drop.
While technical patterns aren’t guarantees, they often coincide with underlying fundamentals. In this case, there are several macroeconomic headwinds that could catalyze such a decline:
Sticky Inflation and Interest Rate Uncertainty: Despite some progress, inflation remains above the Fed’s target. A “higher for longer” rate environment continues to pressure equity valuations, especially in tech-heavy indexes like the NASDAQ-100.
Weakening Consumer and Corporate Spending: Retail sales and corporate earnings revisions have shown signs of fatigue, suggesting slowing momentum in key economic drivers.
Global Tensions and Supply Chain Risks: Ongoing geopolitical instability, including issues in the Middle East and renewed U.S.–China trade rhetoric, could reignite volatility and affect global growth assumptions.
Overvaluation and Narrow Market Breadth: A small group of mega-cap tech names have driven much of the recent rally, leaving the broader market vulnerable if leadership falters.
With technical and fundamental factors aligning, this setup is worth watching closely. A confirmed break below the neckline could be more than just a chart pattern—it may reflect a broader shift in sentiment.
Descending Triangle Formation with Bullish Breakout Potential The NASDAQ (US100) is currently forming a descending triangle pattern with a clear A-B-C-D-E wave structure, signaling price compression and consolidation.
🔍 Key Insights:
The previous move was strongly bullish, increasing the probability of a continuation after consolidation.
A potential breakout above the descending trendline (blue resistance) could trigger a sharp upward move.
Target zones:
✅ First target: 20,060.6
✅ Second target: 20,573.9
Key support zone: 19,524.7 – this area acted as a launchpad for the previous bullish impulse and confirms the base of the triangle.
🧠 Suggested Strategy:
Wait for a confirmed breakout with volume. Look for entries on a pullback toward the 19,811.1 zone – ideally with a bullish continuation candle.
📊 Additional Context:
These types of consolidation patterns often lead to explosive moves. Patience and risk management will be crucial here.
Wave V in PlayThe market appears to have completed a corrective wave IV, forming an ABC structure that tapped into the key demand zone around 20,025.1. This zone aligns with previous structure support, the lower boundary of the ascending channel, and a critical trendline.
🔍 Likely scenario:
If price holds above this level, we could be witnessing the beginning of wave V, with potential targets near 20,254.5.
Wave V is expected to unfold in 5 smaller internal waves and may extend further if price breaks through the mid-channel resistance.
🚨 🔺 CRUCIAL LEVEL TO WATCH: The 20,215 area is extremely important. Price reaction here will be decisive:
A strong rejection could signal a truncated wave V or the start of a deeper correction.
A clean breakout would confirm bullish continuation toward 20,254.5 and beyond.
🟢 Key Zones:
📌 Demand: 20,025 – 20,000
📌 Critical Resistance: 20,215
📌 Wave V Target: 20,254.5
📌 Invalidation level: A drop below 19,975 would invalidate the current bullish count.
📌 Trade Plan:
Look for bullish confirmation at 20,025 to consider long setups.
Watch 20,215 closely for signs of strength or rejection. If price breaks above it with momentum, continuation is likely.
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If you buy into any of the above articles as the gospel truth, you may freak out and starts to sell your holdings in US as some gurus advised you to do so. Take a step back and asked - WHY ?
Is the content creator saying this out of your interests or his ? Remember, positive news seldom receive likes and sharing but negative on the other hand will receive more. That is why it is easier to spell doom, gloom and boom and have lots of people liking it !
Of the 3 main indices, the Tech stocks have already gotten out of the woods as it has been up more than 20% from the bottom. SPX and DJA are still playing catch up. Due to the tariffs, many goods produced in US and are sold in China are now seeing dwindling sales. Patriotism or "guo chao" in Chinese is the anti-US sentiments that is now hot in China. That means the locals will rather buy Anta or Li Ning sports shoes over Nike or Adidas. Same for cosmetics!
There are some technical chartists or analysts saying this is a dead cat bounce and once the price hit the support line (in purple), it will continue to sell down. Yes, it is possible though I think it is less probable.
6 months down the road when we look back and IF I am lucky and predicted correctly, there will be many people who will kick themselves for missing a nice bottom buy on 9th April (thanks to Donald Trump who tweeted it).
Timing the market is TOUGH as I had learnt my lessons . WB , the legendary guru is right - be in the market meaning invest in the market for the long haul in fundamentally strong companies with economic moat and strong cash flows, etc will reap better returns.
As usual, please DYODD
US100There’s a **Sell opportunity** forming on **US100**, but this one carries a bit more risk compared to the others.
That’s why I recommend opening the trade with a **smaller lot size** just for this setup.
🔍 **Criteria:**
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell
✔️ Entry Price: 20021.8
✔️ Take Profit: 19945.8
✔️ Stop Loss: 20059.6
🔔 **Disclaimer:** This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
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Short idea Us100, sweep of weekly resistancePrice is nearing the weekly resistance after extremely bullish price, expecting price to start stalling next week as it pushes in to the golden pocket zone where we'll see a move down and some higher lows lock in.
Ill be looking for a short entry on a low volume move up on the 5 minute time frame after we've taken the external liquidity above the weekly resistance level
NASDAQ Bullish Breakout Above Channel;📈 Technical Analysis Overview
1. Breakout from Downtrend Channel
The price has clearly broken out of a descending channel, confirmed by a clean breakout above the upper trendline.
This is a bullish signal, indicating the end of the prior downtrend and the start of a possible uptrend or reversal.
2. Moving Averages (EMA 50 & EMA 200)
EMA 50 (Red): 18,965
EMA 200 (Blue): 19,409
Price is currently trading above both EMAs, which is another strong bullish indicator.
A bullish crossover (where EMA 50 crosses above EMA 200) is likely imminent if upward momentum continues—this would form a Golden Cross, further confirming bullish sentiment.
3. Structure and Market Behavior
After the breakout, price retested the breakout zone and showed a bounce, forming a higher low, which is characteristic of a bullish structure.
The chart includes projected price action with higher highs and higher lows—suggesting a bullish continuation pattern.
4. Volume & Momentum (Not shown but implied)
Breakouts are typically validated by volume. Although volume is not shown, the sharp upward movement and breakout above resistance suggest strong buying pressure.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 20,000 psychological level; above that, 20,500–21,000 may act as resistance.
Support: 19,400 (near EMA 200), and 18,965 (EMA 50); a break below may invalidate the bullish setup.
📊 Conclusion
The chart shows a clear breakout from a descending channel, supported by the price moving above both key EMAs. The structure favors bullish continuation, especially if price holds above the 19,400–19,500 support zone. Upside targets lie around 20,500 to 21,000.
NASDAQ: Rejected on the 1D MA50. Can it break it?Nasdaq is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.608, MACD = -100.810, ADX = 23.609) as it got rejected today on the 1D MA50. That is the first serious Resistance test of the April 7th rebound and until it breaks, we can see a technical pullback to the 4H MA100 in order to establish the new Support. With the 1D RSI confirmed the new long term bottom with a DB, buying the dips on every such pullback is the most effective strategy on such occasions. Our short term target is the R1 level (TP = 20,300).
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Following the Wave StructureAnalysis:
The NASDAQ100 appears to be following a classic 5-wave structure.
Currently, we are finishing Wave 3, with an expected corrective move toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone near 19,018.7.
From there, the chart suggests a continuation toward the 19,879 area (close to the daily 200 EMA) and, finally, toward the 20,866 target, completing the cycle.
Key zones:
Support: 19,018.7 (50% Fibo and strong structural level)
Resistance: 19,879.1 and 20,866.2
Additional levels: Daily 200 EMA and previous structural gaps
The path won't be in a straight line — expect consolidation and pullbacks along the way. However, the bullish projection remains intact as long as the 19,018.7 support holds.
Let's keep riding the wave! 🌊
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Time for Pullback
There is a high chance that US100 will retrace from the underlined
blue daily resistance.
I spotted a double top pattern on a 4h time frame after its test
and a nice bearish imbalance candle that was formed
during the NY session yesterday as confirmations.
Goal - 19590
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NASDAQ, USTECH, DEAD CAT BOUNCEContinues bearish divergence
Multiple rejections from resistance area
Dead cat bounce appeared
failure to break resistance can lead towards 18500 area
Gap needs to be filled in that area
Negative GDP data will be the actalyst in bearish move
job market data is also negative
slowdown of economic growth
Possible reversal of this bullish wave...(LOG)Orange circles highlight repeated price rejection and the formed doji that suggests a slowdown in a bullish wave and potential reversal. The confluence of the descending trendline and horizontal supply/resistance zone creates a high-probability reversal or breakout from this triangle.
If the price rejects again from the current supply zone and triangle, short setup toward the Fibonacci retracements or demand zones (18300 and below).
If the price breaks above the descending trendline, bullish continuation will likely target 20,000+ (Swing H).
Trend remains down.
Entry 19300
TP 18300 below
Target 14k.
Hits Supply ZoneAfter a sharp drop, price is retracing and reacting to the 19,214.3 resistance zone.
Still inside a descending channel, targeting 18,947.0, where dynamic support and the 200% Fibonacci extension align.
🎯 Entry: Clear rejection from resistance
🛑 Stop: 19,380
✅ Target: 18,947
⚠️ Active management recommended – possible reaction at mid-channel
Structure still confirms bearish momentum (wave 4 in progress). Watch out for fake breakouts!